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No. 17 Purdue visits No. 22 Indiana Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/19/2016  at  4:56:00 PM
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PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (21-6, 9-5 Big Ten)

at INDIANA HOOSIERS (21-6, 11-3 Big Ten)

Assembly Hall - Bloomington, IN
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:30 pm ET
Line: TBD

No. 22 Indiana looks to remain tied atop the Big Ten standings when it hosts in-state rival No. 17 Purdue on Saturday night.

The Boilermakers (12-11 ATS overall) have alternated wins and losses this month, and are an anemic 1-7 ATS in their past eight contests. But not all is bleak, as the team is coming off a 71-61 win over Northwestern and has won eight of the past 12 meetings SU in this series, including three in a row. The Hoosiers (14-13 ATS overall) have also alternated wins and losses (both SU and ATS) in all five games this month, but are coming off an 80-64 blowout of 12-point underdog Nebraska on Wednesday. They are also 11-3 SU in the past 14 home games in this series. These schools are both 5-5 ATS against one another in the past 10 meetings, but before Purdue won 67-63 in Bloomington last season, the previous nine meetings were all double-digit blowouts with the final margins being 16, 18, 28, 37, 11, 17, 11, 14 and 19 points. While this matchup of two ranked teams should be close for the second straight season, bettors need to realize that Indiana is a perfect 15-0 SU (11-4 ATS) at home this season where it has beaten visitors by a hefty 25.3 points per game.

Who will prevail in this rivalry game on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a huge 66% ATS record (63-33-4) in the past four weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 74% ATS (14-5-1) and StatFox Zach going 68% ATS (13-6-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for two months, with a stellar 66% ATS record (29-15-1) in the past nine weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 68% ATS (23-11-1) over the past seven weeks, and StatFox Scott is a strong 58% ATS (19-14-2) in this same timeframe.

Purdue has been beating up on opponents all season with a +13.8 PPG scoring margin despite pedestrian offensive numbers of 77.3 PPG on 46% FG and 36% threes. But the Boilermakers are relentless on the glass with a stellar +11.2 RPG margin, which helps them limit opponents to just 63.5 PPG on 38% FG and 30% threes, all of which rank among the nation's top-20 best defenses. This is also a team that takes great care of the basketball with 17.2 APG and 12.3 TOPG (1.40 Ast/TO ratio), but it doesn't create many opponent miscues with only 10.0 turnovers forced per game. Senior C A.J. Hammons (14.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) is clearly the leader of this program with a 58% FG clip and his 2.6 BPG ranks second in the Big Ten behind only Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff (2.9). Hammons has a current streak of eight straight double-figure scoring games, and has four double-doubles in his past five contests. He dominated the Hoosiers on both ends last season with 31 points on a near-perfect 12-of-13 FG and 12 blocked shots during those two victories. Freshman F Caleb Swanigan (9.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG) leads the Big Ten in rebounding, and is tied for third in the conference in double-doubles (seven) behind only Hammons and Michigan State's Denzel Valentine (eight each). Sophomore F Vince Edwards (10.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.0 APG) has a high basketball IQ with a 1.9 Ast/TO ratio this season, and has 14 points and 16 rebounds in his past two contests. Edwards didn't shoot well in Bloomington last season (2 points, 0-4 FG, 0-3 3's), but he did contribute four assists and four rebounds with zero turnovers. C Isaac Haas (10.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG) plays only 14.8 MPG this season, but provides instant offense with a 57% FG rate. In the past five games, Haas has 48 points in 66 minutes, making at least half his shots in all five contests. The 7-foot-2 sophomore needed only 12 minutes to drop 12 points and nine rebounds in the win at Indiana last season. Senior G Rapheal Davis (9.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG) pumped in 24 points in an overtime loss versus Michigan State two weeks ago, but has just six points on 2-of-8 FG in the past two games combined. But Davis had two great games versus the Hoosiers last season when he averaged 15.0 PPG on 10-of-15 FG with 7.5 RPG and 3.0 APG in the pair of victories.

Indiana can put up points in a hurry with 83.4 PPG on 50% FG and 42% threes, all of which rank among the top-15 teams in the nation. This school drains 9.9 threes per game this season and shoots a solid 72% FT. Like Purdue, the Hoosiers are an excellent rebounding team with a +7.6 RPG margin, but they commit way too many turnovers (14.1 TOPG). However, the defense has been able to force nearly that many miscues (13.3 forced TOPG) by racking up 7.0 steals per game. Despite a strong 4.1 blocks per game, opponents are still scoring 69.4 PPG on 44% FG and 34% threes. PG Yogi Ferrell (16.6 PPG, 5.6 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is clearly the engine of this offense with a sparkling 2.2 Ast/TO ratio in his nearly 34 minutes per game. Ferrell has been ice-cold in his past four games (10-of-42 FG), but has 11 assists and only two turnovers in the past two contests. He gave Purdue fits last season with 21 points in each of the two meetings, and made 16-of-35 shots (46%). Another Hoosiers player that has really stepped up recently is freshman C Thomas Bryant (11.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG), who has an outstanding 70% FG clip (123-for-175). Before producing only four points on Wednesday, he had scored exactly 10 points in each of his previous three contests. Two other Indiana players are also averaging double-figures in scoring this season, injured G James Blackmon Jr. (15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and junior F Troy Williams (12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.1 SPG). Williams is coming off a monster game versus Nebraska where he poured in 18 points on 8-of-9 shooting, and also played well versus Purdue last season with 11.0 PPG on 10-of-23 FG with 6.5 RPG and 1.5 SPG in the two defeats.


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