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No. 18 Louisville hosts No. 20 Duke on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/19/2016  at  11:15:00 AM
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DUKE BLUE DEVILS (20-6, 9-4 ACC)

at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (20-6, 9-4 ACC)

KFC Yum! Center - Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: TBD

Two ACC title hopefuls will meet for the second time in two weeks on Saturday when No. 20 Duke visits No. 18 Louisville.

The red-hot Blue Devils (12-12-1 ATS overall) are unbeaten this month, as their 74-73 upset at 8.5-point favorite North Carolina on Wednesday makes them a perfect 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) in February. Each of the past three wins has been versus a top-15 team in the nation, including a victory over the Cardinals (11-11 ATS), who they beat 72-65 on Feb. 8 in Durham. Louisville also lost its subsequent game at Notre Dame, but bounced back with a 72-58 home victory over Syracuse on Wednesday. These schools are meeting for just the third time in ACC play, with the Blue Devils also prevailing at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season, 63-52, and they also split a pair of neutral-court meetings three seasons ago with the Cardinals rolling to an 85-63 blowout in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight to avenge a 76-71 loss four months earlier. Both sides have positive betting trends to wager on. Duke has been a very good road team recently at 11-2 SU in its past 13 games, including 5-2 (SU and ATS) this season. But beating Louisville at home has proven to be a difficult task this season, as the school is 16-1 SU (9-4 ATS) at the KFC Yum! Center, where they are destroying opponents by an average of 25.1 points per game. The only major injury concern is Blue Devils G Matt Jones (11.2 PPG), who severely sprained his ankle during Wednesday's win and is doubtful to return on Saturday.

Can Duke win its fourth straight game versus a ranked opponent in a difficult environment? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a huge 66% ATS record (63-33-4) in the past four weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 74% ATS (14-5-1) and StatFox Zach going 68% ATS (13-6-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for two months, with a stellar 66% ATS record (29-15-1) in the past nine weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 68% ATS (23-11-1) over the past seven weeks, and StatFox Scott is a strong 58% ATS (19-14-2) in this same timeframe.

Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging a robust 83.1 PPG on 47.3% FG and 39.1% threes. This is a decent foul-shooting team (72.5% FT) that rarely turns the ball over (10.0 TOPG), but has a pedestrian +2.3 RPG margin this season, as top rebounder Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) hasn't played since Dec. 5 due to a broken foot. This offense needs to be super efficient, because its defense is not strong with 71.0 PPG allowed on 47.3% FG and 33.8% threes. In addition to Jefferson, four other Duke players average at least 11 points per game, led by G Grayson Allen (20.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.0 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (17.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.1 SPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 15 points in 15 straight games, where he has averaged 21.1 PPG while getting to the foul line exactly 100 times (83% FT, 83-of-100). Allen has been especially hot during his team's five-game win streak with a whopping 22.4 PPG on 45% FG and 50% threes (16-of-32). This stretch includes when Allen lit up Louisville for 19 points on 4-of-6 threes. The 6-foot-9 Ingram is also on fire, recording 19 straight games of 13+ points, where he's averaged 19.7 PPG (49% FG, 45% threes) with 8.0 RPG. This run included a double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds in the Feb. 8 win over the Cardinals. The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are freshman F/G Luke Kennard (12.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG) and junior G Matt Jones (11.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.0 SPG). Kennard can hurt opponents from anywhere on the court, and loves getting to the foul line where he is nearly automatic at 91% FT (74-of-81). He scored 11 points versus Louisville two weeks ago and also came up big at North Carolina on Wednesday with 15 points on 6-of-9 FG (3-of-4 threes). With Jones not likely to play with his sprained ankle, the team will rely heavily on freshman G Derryck Thornton (8.0 PPG, 2.7 APG), who was forced to play 39 minutes on Wednesday. Thornton is a quality shooter at 37% threes and could be the team's best perimeter defender with eight steals over his past four games.

Louisville leads the nation in scoring margin at +17.0 PPG, as its offense puts up 77.7 PPG on 47.8% FG and 36.2% threes, while the elite defense allows only 60.7 PPG on 38.1% FG and 31.3% threes. This team is relentless on the glass with its +8.7 RPG margin and 14.1 offensive RPG, and forces many more turnovers (14.4 TOPG) than it commits (11.8 TOPG). The biggest weakness for the team is foul shooting (69.3% FT), but that number has risen to 73% FT (88-120) over the past seven games. Louisville has three main scorers that pace the offense in G Damion Lee (16.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG), G Trey Lewis (12.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.3 APG) and C Chinanu Onuaku (9.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG). The senior Lee has scored at least 10 points in every game except for two, but made only 3-of-15 shots in the loss at Duke. He has been much better in two games since that defeat though, including a well-rounded stat line of 15 points, six rebounds, four assists and two steals in Wednesday's victory over Syracuse. Lee, who played his first three collegiate seasons at Drexel, is shooting a career-best 45% FG to go along with strong rates of 37% threes and 86% FT. Lewis, who is also a senior transfer, has scored 11+ points in four straight games, including 11 points on 5-of-10 FG at Duke and 14 points on 6-of-11 FG on Wednesday. He is knocking down 38% threes and 85% FT this season after draining 42% threes at Cleveland State last season. The 6-foot-10 Onuaku is coming off a huge performance against the Orange with 13 points (6-of-9 FG), 15 rebounds and four assists, but was a complete non-factor at Duke two weeks ago. In that defeat, the sophomore managed only two points and three rebounds in 22 foul-plagued minutes, but he did block three shots. Another key to the Cardinals' success is the play of G Quentin Snider (9.6 PPG, 3.7 APG), who carries a stellar 2.9 Ast/TO ratio this season with 97 assists and 33 turnovers. Snider had a strong effort at Duke when he scored 12 points (4-of-9 FG, 2-of-5 threes) in 25 minutes before fouling out, but has made only 5-of-19 shots (2-of-10 threes) over the past two games.


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