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No. 16 Oregon looks to stay hot Sunday vs. Utah
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/7/2016  at  5:01:00 AM
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UTAH UTES (17-6, 6-4 Pac-12)

at OREGON DUCKS (19-4, 8-2 Pac-12)

Matthew Knight Arena - Eugene, OR
Tip-off: Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -6.5, Total: 147.5

No. 16 Oregon seeks a sixth straight win on Sunday when it hosts a Utah team looking to bounce back from a Thursday defeat.

The Utes (9-11 ATS) saw their five-game win streak snapped three days ago when they fell 71-69 at Oregon State despite shooting 51% FG. That dropped the club to 3-3 (SU and ATS) in true road games this season. The Ducks (12-7-1 ATS) won their fifth consecutive game (SU and ATS) with a 76-56 rout of Colorado on Thursday despite shooting only 41% FG. In doing so, they improved their perfect home record to 14-0 SU (8-3 ATS), where they are outscoring visitors by 14.9 PPG. These two teams also met on Jan. 14 in Salt Lake City, which was a surprising 77-59 Oregon rout, as it shot 55% FG and 42% threes (5-of-12) and held Utah to 34% FG and 31% threes (7-of-22). That was the fifth straight win in the series for the Ducks (4-1 ATS) since the Utes last beat them on March 9, 2013. Bettors have plenty of reasons to choose either side on Sunday though, as Utah is 37-16 ATS when avenging a loss versus an opponent under head coach Larry Krystkowiak, and is 12-3 ATS after a 2-1 ATS stretch in the past two seasons. But Oregon is 16-5 ATS after two straight Pac-12 wins in the past three seasons, and is 28-9 ATS under head coach Dana Altman after ATS wins in 5 or 6 of its previous seven games. Both teams could be short-handed with questionable injuries to Utes G Kenneth Ogbe (groin) and Ducks shot-blocking C Chris Boucher (ankle).

Can Utah hand Oregon its first home loss of the season on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts are coming off two big weeks at 60% ATS (30-20), led by StatFox Dave and StatFox Zach both going 7-3 ATS. StatFox Brian had his seventh straight week of at least 60% ATS, giving him a stellar 69% ATS record (24-11) in this seven-week timeframe. StatFox Gary is also hot, going 60% ATS (15-10) over the past five weeks.

Utah has a quality offense that puts up 78.8 PPG (57th in nation) on an excellent 48.6% FG (17th in D-I) despite a pedestrian 35.0% threes (152nd in nation). This club is strong on the boards (+6.1 RPG, 36th in D-I) and has a quality 1.22 Ast/TO ratio (79th in nation) with 15.4 APG (73rd in D-I) and 12.6 TOPG (141st in nation) this season. This team does have some deficiencies on defense though, as it allows opponents to shoot 37.2% threes (305th in D-I) and forces only 10.4 TOPG (332nd in nation). But the Utes still give up only 69.6 PPG (129th in D-I) on 41.1% FG overall (82nd in nation), thanks in part to 4.5 blocks per game (67th in D-I). The offense revolves around 7-foot sophomore F Jakob Poeltl, who leads the Pac-12 in shooting (65% FG), while ranking second in the conference in scoring (17.4 PPG), fifth in rebounding (8.9 RPG) and sixth in blocks (1.5 BPG). Poeltl has scored at least 20 points in four straight games (23.3 PPG), shooting a red-hot 67% FG with 8.8 RPG. But he made only one basket (1-of-4 FG) in the home loss to Oregon last month, finishing with seven points and seven rebounds, five of which came on the offensive glass. Sophomore F Kyle Kuzma (11.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has four double-doubles this season and is shooting 50% from the floor. Kuzma has also increased his scoring in each of the past five games with 8, 9, 11, 15, 16 and 17 points in Thursday's loss to Oregon State, but he was held to eight points and four boards when his team last met the Ducks. Senior F Jordan Loveridge (11.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG) is the team's main weapon from behind the arc at 42%, and his 2.4 made threes per game ranks third in the Pac-12. But Loveridge has been very quiet in his past three contests with only 6.7 PPG on 5-of-14 FG, and had just six points on 2-of-8 shooting versus Oregon last month. G Brandon Taylor (9.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) leads the team with 32.5 MPG and was the only Utes player scoring in double-figures in the Jan. 14 loss to the Ducks, as he scored 12 points on 3-of-8 FG (2-of-6 threes). Poor shooting has plagued the senior all season, as he's making a career-worst 38% FG and 29% threes. This will need to change for his team to pull off the upset on Sunday.

Oregon's offense has been strong all season at 78.2 PPG (73rd in nation) on 46.8% FG (53rd in D-I) and a mediocre 34.4% threes (187th in D-I), which includes a recent surge of 85.0 PPG on 48.1% FG over the past five contests. This is a decent ball-handling team with 13.9 APG (137th in nation) and 12.0 TOPG (90th in D-I), and rebounding is solid too with a +3.1 RPG margin (93rd in nation). The defense has also been sound in limiting opponents to 67.5 PPG (81st in D-I) on 40.9% FG (75th in nation) and 34.1% threes (160th in D-I). At home, these numbers improve greatly to 65.3 PPG on 39.6% FG and 31.2% threes. The Ducks force a bunch of turnovers (14.8 per game, 55th in nation) with an active defense that tallies 7.7 steals per game (43rd in D-I) and a hefty 6.2 blocks per game, good for third in the nation. Sophomore F Dillon Brooks (16.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.1 SPG) was named national player of the week for his heroics on the road at Arizona (24 points) and Arizona State (18 points) last week, but was plagued with foul trouble on Thursday and finished with 10 points in 20 minutes before fouling out. Brooks is averaging 18.5 PPG during an eight-game streak of double-figure scoring, and lit up Utah for 21 points (10-of-16 FG) and eight rebounds, which were both game highs. In three career games versus the Utes, Brooks has 18.0 PPG on 64% FG. Senior F Elgin Cook (13.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has also come on strong in his past six games with 17.0 PPG, including 18 points on Thursday. Freshman G Tyler Dorsey (13.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) rarely takes a bad shot, evidenced by his 45% FG and 43% threes this season. Dorsey has scored at least a dozen points in three straight games, where he's averaging 13.7 PPG. Two other players that have shined all season are 6-foot-10 C Chris Boucher (12.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG; nation-leading 3.4 BPG), who is questionable after spraining his ankle on Thursday, and sophomore PG Casey Benson (6.1 PPG, 3.2 APG), who ranks second in Division-I in assist-to-turnover ratio at 5.29. Benson has 74 assists and only 14 turnovers this season, and although he had just one assist in 28 minutes in Salt Lake City on Jan. 14, he recorded 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting and 3-of-4 threes in that victory.


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