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Notre Dame visits #17 Miami in key ACC battle
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/3/2016  at  1:13:00 PM
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NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (15-6, 6-3 ACC)

at MIAMI HURRICANES (16-4, 5-3 ACC)

BankUnited Center - Coral Gables, FL
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -5.5, Total: 151

A key ACC matchup takes place on Wednesday night when Notre Dame visits No. 17 Miami.

The Fighting Irish (8-10 ATS overall) have won five of their past six contests and bounced back from a loss at Syracuse -- without star G Demetrius Jackson -- with an 85-62 home thrashing of Wake Forest on Sunday with Jackson back on the court. But they are just 4-5 (SU and ATS) away from home this season. The Hurricanes (11-8 ATS overall) were also on a roll with three straight wins before getting crushed 85-69 at NC State on Saturday. They are happy to get back home where they are 10-1 SU (7-3 ATS) this season with eight straight wins, including four conference home wins by an average of 12.8 PPG. These schools are meeting for just the fourth time since Notre Dame joined the ACC, with all three matchups decided by seven points or less. Miami won the lone home meeting two seasons ago, but lost in South Bend last year and then fell 70-63 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals. There are plenty of reasons for bettor optimism on both sides Wednesday. The Irish are 13-2 ATS on the road versus excellent teams (45%+ FG and 42% or less FG allowed) in the past three seasons, and road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off a home blowout win by 20+ points facing an opponent coming off a double-digit road loss are 61-28 ATS (69%) in the past five seasons. However, the Hurricanes are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the past two seasons after ATS losses in 5 or 6 of their past seven games, and are 83-54 ATS (61%) versus good offensive teams (77+ PPG) since 1997.

Can Miami extend its long home winning streak on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts are coming off two big weeks at 60% ATS (30-20), led by StatFox Dave and StatFox Zach both going 7-3 ATS. StatFox Brian had his seventh straight week of at least 60% ATS, giving him a stellar 69% ATS record (24-11) in this seven-week timeframe. StatFox Gary is also hot, going 60% ATS (15-10) over the past five weeks.

Notre Dame's offense has been top-notch all season with 78.9 PPG on 49.6% FG and 38.6% threes, good for 10th in the nation. The long-distance shooting has been even more impressive away from home at 41.0% threes. This is a very unselfish team that makes the extra pass (14.5 APG) and has the fourth-fewest turnovers in D-I (9.5 per game). Even though the defense forces a mere 10.3 turnovers per game, it still limits opponents to a respectable 69.4 PPG on 42.7% FG. However, the perimeter defense has been awful, as opponents are draining 38.6% threes against the Irish this season. With a limited bench, Notre Dame does a nice job staying out of foul trouble (15.7 fouls per game, 8th-fewest in nation) but stays aggressive on the glass (+4.4 RPG margin). Five Irish players average double-figure points with PG Demetrius Jackson leading the way at 16.5 PPG to go along with 5.2 APG, 3.5 RPG and 1.5 SPG. The junior shoots well from all areas (50% FG, 38% threes, 76% FT) and ranks sixth in the conference with a 2.5 Ast/TO ratio. Jackson had 12 points, five rebounds, three assists and zero turnovers in the ACC Tournament win versus Miami last year. Senior PF Zach Auguste provides the bulk of the scoring down low with a double-double season average of 14.0 PPG and 10.1 RPG. Auguste posted his 12th double-double of the season on Sunday with 21 points (7-of-10 FG, 7-of-7 FT) and 12 rebounds, marking his fifth straight game with at least 10 boards. Junior G Steve Vasturia (12.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.0 RPG) leads the team with 35.4 MPG and shoots high rates from all over the court at 49% FG, 39% threes and 83% FT. He has averaged 15.6 PPG during a five-game streak of double-figure scoring, and Vasturia gave Miami fits in the conference tournament matchup with a team-high 16 points (3-for-6 threes) plus four assists, four rebounds and three steals. F Bonzie Colson (12.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and F V.J. Beachem (11.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) are the other main scorers for this team. The sophomore Colson leads the team with a 56% FG clip, while the junior Beachem is the best long-range shooter at 44% threes.

Miami's offense has been solid this season with 78.8 PPG on 47.5% FG and 36.0% threes, and is also excellent from the foul line at 76.2% FT (11th in nation). This is also a disciplined club that rarely turns the ball over (11.0 TOPG, 27th in D-I) and commits only 17.4 fouls per game (42nd in nation). Defensively, the Hurricanes hold opponents to 65.9 PPG on 41.3% FG and 32.8% threes, and these numbers are even more impressive at home (63.5 PPG, 39.2% FG, 29.1% threes). This is also a quality rebounding team with a +4.2 RPG margin. Senior G Sheldon McClellan (16.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG) is having a monster season with career-best shooting rates of 52% FG, 37% threes and 87% FT. He has scored at least 13 points in eight straight games, where he's averaging 17.8 PPG, but has made only 3-of-15 threes in his past three contests. Long-range shooting was also a problem in the last meeting with Notre Dame when McClellan missed all five of his three-point attempts, but he still contributed 10 points, five rebounds and four steals. Senior PG Angel Rodriguez (11.7 PPG, 4.1 APG) had a team-high 15 points off the bench in that loss, but had only one assist in a game where his team recorded a dismal five assists. This season, Rodriguez is shooting only 41% FG and 30% threes, but he has picked up 1.7 SPG with a respectable 2.4 TOPG considering how much the ball is in his hands. Sophomore G Ja'Quan Newton (11.9 PPG, 2.7 APG) is the second-leading scorer for Miami, and he is knocking down 49% FG and 38% threes. Newton has tallied at least 10 points in four straight games, where he's averaging 13.8 PPG on 46% FG and 79% FT (15-of-19). Senior C Tonye Jekiri (8.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) has provided the muscle in the paint this season with 13 games of 10+ rebounds, and he had his way inside against Notre Dame last March with 11 points and 11 rebounds before fouling out. The 'Canes want more out of G Davon Reed (10.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) this time around, after he made only 1-of-8 shots in that last defeat to the Irish. This season, Reed has scored at least 10 points on 10 different occasions, and has 26 points on 9-of-17 FG in the past two contests.


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