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No. 4 Kansas and No. 20 Kentucky collide Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/29/2016  at  5:40:00 PM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (16-4)

at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (16-4)

Allen Fieldhouse - Lawrence, KS
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

The marquee matchup of the Big 12/SEC Challenge this weekend takes place in Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday night when No. 4 Kansas hosts No. 20 Kentucky.

The Wildcats (9-11 ATS overall) have had a down season by their lofty standards with four SU losses already, but they enter this showdown with three straight double-digit wins (SU and ATS) by 13 at Arkansas, 19 versus Vanderbilt and by 34 points versus Missouri on Wednesday. They have struggled on the road this season though at 2-3 (SU and ATS), where they have allowed 12 more points per game (74.8) than they have at home (62.8 PPG). The Jayhawks (9-8 ATS overall) enter this matchup with five straight ATS defeats, including three SU road losses at West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. But they are a perfect 10-0 SU (4-4 ATS) at home where they outscore visitors by a hefty 22.3 PPG. After taking care of Texas last Saturday, they were crushed 85-72 at Iowa State two days later. These storied programs most recently met early last season when Kentucky rolled to a 72-40 laugher in the State Farm Champions Classic in Indianapolis, which gave the program three straight wins versus Kansas. The previous meeting was in the 2012 NCAA Championship, when the Wildcats prevailed 67-59 to capture the title.

Can Kentucky pull off the big upset on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts are coming off a huge week at 64% ATS (16-9), led by StatFox Dave's perfect 5-0 ATS mark and StatFox Zach going 4-1 ATS. StatFox Brian had his sixth straight week of at least 60% ATS, giving him a stellar 67% ATS record (20-10) in this six-week timeframe. StatFox Gary is also hot, going 60% ATS (12-8) over the past four weeks, and StatFox Scott is a strong 56% ATS (10-8-2) in this same timeframe.

Kentucky has a quality offense that scores 77.9 PPG on a strong 47.1% this season, but shoots horribly from long distance (32.7% threes). Due to its great size, the team holds a dominant +7.7 RPG margin with 14.0 offensive RPG. It also generates a hefty 5.8 BPG, which helps the overall defense post quality numbers of 66.4 PPG on 40.1% FG. Meanwhile, the guards limit opponents to a paltry 31.8% threes and generate 13.5 turnovers per game, which is considerably more than the 12.3 TO per game the team commits on offense. Six Wildcats score more than seven points per game, with freshman G Jamal Murray leading the way with 17.5 PPG. Murray, who knocks down 38% threes and grabs 4.8 RPG, has scored at least eight points in every game this season, and has reached 18 points in six of the past seven contests. The one exception was his 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting in Wednesday's blowout of Missouri. Sophomore PG Tyler Ulis (15.5 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG) has also been outstanding lately with three straight games of 20 points, where he's averaged 21.7 PPG on 60% FG with 6.0 APG. Ulis shoots only 43% FG and 31% threes this season, but is making an impressive 88% FT. The team's third and final double-digit scorer is freshman G Isaiah Briscoe (10.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) who had struggled for three games (5.3 PPG, 26% FG) before dropping 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting versus Missouri on Wednesday. In the frontcourt, 6-foot-8 F Alex Poythress (9.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG), 6-foot-11 C Skal Labissiere (7.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and 6-foot-9 F Marcus Lee (7.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) are all imposing figures down low. The senior Poythress has tallied 24 points (10-of-15 FG) and nine rebounds over the past two games, but played poorly against Kansas last season when he missed all five of his shots and finished with four points and three boards in 19 minutes. Lee was much more effective in that victory with four points (2-of-3 FG), seven rebounds and four blocks in 17 minutes off the bench.

Kansas has an explosive offense that has generated 83.7 PPG on 48.6% FG and 43.0% threes this season. The Jayhawks are very efficient with 16.7 APG and only 11.9 TOPG, which equals a stellar 1.40 Ast/TO ratio. The defense allows a pedestrian 69.3 PPG, but limits opponents to 40.5% FG despite a subpar 34.6% threes. The team's 7.3 steals per game and 13.9 forced turnovers per game also help keep opponent scores low. Rebounding is also strong at +5.6 RPG, but the team has produced only 11.0 offensive RPG. Kansas has four main scorers it relies on with F Perry Ellis (16.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG), G Wayne Selden Jr. (14.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.7 APG), G Frank Mason III (13.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.6 SPG) and G Devonte' Graham (10.5 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.4 SPG). The senior Ellis is knocking down 50% FG and 46% threes this season, and has at least 10 points in 16 straight games, which includes 26 on Saturday and 23 in Monday's loss at Iowa State. Ellis was a complete non-factor versus Kentucky last season though, when he was held to four points on 1-of-6 shooting. Selden actually led the team in scoring in that defeat with nine points, but made only 4-of-12 shots and missed both of his free throws. The junior has been scorching from long range this season in making 47% threes (13th in nation), which is way up from his 37% clip from last season. The junior Mason had one of the worst games of his career against Kentucky when he made 1-of-10 shots and recorded zero assists in 32 minutes. But Mason has netted at least 10 points in all but one game this season (Dec. 19 vs. Montana), and scored 16 points on 6-of-11 FG on Monday. But he also committed six turnovers in the loss, and he must protect the basketball better on Saturday against an ultra-aggressive Kentucky defense. Graham has been outstanding in running the offense with a 3.2 Assist/Turnover ratio this season (23rd in nation), and has averaged 10.3 PPG and 5.3 APG in the past four games.


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