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No. 16 Providence meets No. 4 Villanova Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/24/2016  at  1:24:00 AM
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PROVIDENCE FRIARS (16-3, 4-2 Big East)

at VILLANOVA WILDCATS (17-2, 7-0 Big East)

The Pavilion - Villanova, PA
Tip-off: Sunday, Noon ET
Line: TBD

No. 4 Villanova tries to remain perfect in Big East play when it hosts No. 16 Providence on Sunday. This game was originally slated for Saturday, but the East Coast blizzard postponed this contest one day.

The Friars (11-7 ATS) have alternated wins and losses (both SU and ATS) throughout the month of January and are hoping that pattern ends on Saturday following Tuesday's 71-68 win over No. 18 Butler. They are a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) on the road this season with those wins coming by a combined 36 points. But the Wildcats (9-8-1 ATS) are perfect at home this season at 10-0 SU (6-3 ATS) and have rolled off nine straight wins since falling at Virginia on Dec. 19. However, they have gone five consecutive games without an ATS win, going 0-4-1 ATS during this stretch. These schools are very familiar with one another and met three times last season. Villanova won all three of those matchups, including an 89-61 romp at home last February, but the meeting in the Big East Tournament Semifinals came down to the wire with Providence falling 63-61 after a questionable foul call allowed their opponent to make two foul shots with 3.1 seconds left. Bettors hoping the Friars can snap their five-game series losing skid can point to their 5-1 ATS mark as an underdog this season and their opponent's weak 3-6-1 ATS record with at least three days off this season. But a win on Sunday won't be easy against a Villanova team that is not only 6-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, but it has won those games by an average of 23.6 PPG.

Can Providence pull off the upset on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. StatFox Brian has a stellar 68% ATS mark (17-8) in the past five weeks and has a 66% ATS mark (23-12) over the past seven weeks. StatFox Gary is catching fire with a 67% ATS (10-5) record over the past three weeks, and StatFox Scott is 62% ATS (8-5-2) in this same timeframe.

Providence is an average offensive team at 74.1 PPG (168th in nation) and shoots poorly at 43.3% FG (213th in D-I), including a horrendous 30.7% threes (307th in nation). The team rarely turns the ball over though (10.9 PPG, 30th in D-I), and is pretty unselfish with 15.4 APG (72nd in nation). Rebounding is mediocre (+1.9 RPG, 137th in D-I), but the defense has generally been tough. The Friars allow only 66.6 PPG (65th in nation) on 42.4% FG (144th in D-I) and 31.5% threes (59th in nation), and do a good job forcing turnovers (14.7 TOPG, 63rd in D-I) with 6.9 SPG (105th in nation) and also have a solid 4.1 blocks per game (106th in D-I). Sophomore F Ben Bentil (19.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG) has at least 13 points in 16 straight games, with 10 of those being 20-point outbursts. Bentil also had a double-double of 12 points and 10 boards in the Big East Tournament loss to Villanova last season. Junior G Kris Dunn (17.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG) leads the conference in assists (6.7 APG) and ranks second in the nation in steals (2.9 SPG). Although he kept his team in the Big East Tournament loss to the Wildcats last March with 22 points, nine assists and seven rebounds, Dunn was awful at Villanova, making only 2-of-10 shots and committing six turnovers. Dunn has also struggled with turnovers this month with 25 miscues in five games. Sophomore F Rodney Bullock (13.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) leads the team with five double-doubles and nearly had a sixth on Tuesday when he produced 16 points and eight rebounds versus Butler. Sophomore PG Kyron Cartwright (4.6 PPG, 3.3 APG) has an excellent 2.5 Ast/TO ratio, and has been looking for his shot more in the past two games with 11.5 PPG on 9-of-16 FG and 3-of-4 threes. Last season, he made only 4-of-33 three-pointers, but Cartwright did play well at Villanova when he tallied 12 points, four rebounds and three assists versus the Wildcats.

Villanova scores a pedestrian 75.6 PPG (136th in nation) on a strong 46.6% FG (61st in D-I) and a rather weak 32.0% threes (270th in nation). The team is great at protecting the basketball (10.6 TOPG, 18th in D-I) and also shares the rock nicely with 15.7 APG (65th in nation), but is average on the boards (+1.9 RPG margin, 142nd in D-I) and is feeble on the offensive glass (9.9 Offensive RPG, 253rd in nation). But defensively, the Wildcats hold teams to a paltry 60.6 PPG (6th in D-I) on 37.9% FG (13th in nation) and 32.1% threes (80th in D-I). They achieve this despite only 6.5 steals per game (140th in nation) and 3.7 blocks per game (also 140th in D-I). Villanova typically uses eight players with a nice balance of five players with at least 9.8 PPG. F Josh Hart (15.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is the team's go-to scorer with at least 10 points in every game this season, including at least 15 points in six of the past seven contests. After a modest 9.5 PPG in two regular-season wins versus the Friars, Hart exploded for 18 points on 7-of-10 FG (3-of-5 threes) in the Big East Tournament victory. Senior G Ryan Arcidiacono (12.6 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.4 SPG) has a current streak of nine straight games scoring in double-figures, and had 10 points, four assists and zero turnovers in 34 minutes on Wednesday. Arcidiacono averaged 13.0 PPG (7-of-15 threes) in the three meetings with Providence last season. Junior F Kris Jenkins (10.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG) has racked up three straight contests of 10+ points (14.0 PPG), but he has also committed four fouls in four of the past six games. Freshman G Jalen Brunson (10.2 PPG, 2.8 APG) has been held to two points in three of the past five contests, but he has done a nice job in keeping turnovers to a minimum as he has yet to commit more than three miscues in any game this season. F Daniel Ochefu (9.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG) provides the muscle in the paint with six double-doubles this year, but has scored just 5.5 PPG over the past four contests. However, the senior was a beast versus Providence last season with 13.3 PPG on 14-of-18 FG (78%) and 10.0 RPG in the three victories.


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