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No. 11 MSU hosts No. 7 Maryland Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/23/2016  at  5:17:00 AM
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MARYLAND TERRAPINS (17-2, 6-1 Big Ten)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (16-4, 3-4 Big Ten)

Breslin Center - East Lansing, MI
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -3.5

No. 11 Michigan State tries to avoid a fourth straight defeat when it entertains No. 7 Maryland on Saturday night.

The Terrapins (8-9-2 ATS) have won 10 of their past 11 games SU, but dropped their most recent road game at Michigan on Jan. 12, and barely escaped past 12-point underdog Northwestern at home on Tuesday, prevailing 62-56 in overtime. The Spartans (10-9 ATS) are in the midst of a three-game losing skid, with two of those defeats coming at home. After getting drilled by 17 versus Iowa, Michigan State lost by one point at Wisconsin and then lost by a single point again Wednesday at home versus 15-point underdog Nebraska. These schools met three times last season, which was Maryland's first Big Ten campaign. The first meeting was a thrilling 68-66 Terrapins win in double overtime in East Lansing followed three weeks later by a 75-59 drubbing in College Park. But the Spartans got the last laugh with a 62-58 victory in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals. Maryland is 6-2 SU (4-2 ATS) away from home this season, but is only 5-9-2 ATS after an SU win. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 8-2 SU (5-4 ATS) at home where it outscores opponents by an average of 20.0 PPG, but is only 2-5 ATS in Big Ten play, and 0-3 ATS following an SU loss.

Will Michigan State finally get back in the win column on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. StatFox Brian has a stellar 68% ATS mark (17-8) in the past five weeks and has a 66% ATS mark (23-12) over the past seven weeks. StatFox Gary is catching fire with a 67% ATS (10-5) record over the past three weeks, and StatFox Scott is 62% ATS (8-5-2) in this same timeframe.

Maryland has a high-scoring offense (78.1 PPG, 79th in D-I) that shoots very well from everywhere on the floor with 50.9% FG (5th in nation), 37.9% threes (49th in D-I) and 76.1% FT (7th in nation). Turnovers are a bit high (13.4 TOPG, 219th in D-I), but this team rebounds well (+5.7 RPG, 47th in nation) and dishes out a solid 14.6 assists per game (107th in D-I). This defense is also top-notch with 63.6 PPG allowed (24th in nation) on 40.6% FG (69th in D-I) and 31.2% threes (52nd in nation). A paltry 5.9 steals per game (209th in nation) leads to a mere 11.6 forced turnovers per contest (293rd in D-I), but the Terrapins block 5.2 shots per game (36th in nation) and commit only 16.2 fouls per game (16th in D-I). Senior G Melo Trimble (13.9 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.3 SPG) is a talented playmaker with a 2.3 Assist/TO ratio and strong shooting percentages of 47% FG, 35% threes and 88% FT. Trimble's offensive production has been wildly inconsistent in January (24, 4, 21, 2, 8, 18), but he still produced 18 points and six assists in Tuesday's overtime win versus Northwestern. Last season versus Michigan State, he averaged a hefty 21.0 PPG on 11-of-28 threes and 18-of-22 FT. Both C Diamond Stone (13.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and F Robert Carter (13.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG) shoot close to the basket, resulting in 60% FG and 58% FG, respectively. Stone, a 6-foot-11 freshman, has 12 straight double-figure scoring games and has shot above 50% FG in eight consecutive contests. He extended these streaks on Tuesday despite logging only 15 minutes due to foul trouble. The junior Carter has netted at least eight points in every game this season, and has a pair of double-doubles over the past four games, including 10 points and 14 boards versus Northwestern. The other double-digit scorers are F Jake Layman (10.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG) and G Rasheed Sulaimon (10.4 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) who both make 49% FG, with Layman at 37% threes and Sulaimon knocking down a team-high 49% threes. Layman has played well in the past three games with 12.0 PPG and 6.7 RPG, but had only one great meeting with MSU last season (23 points, 12 rebounds) to go along with a pair of duds (10 points, 12 rebounds combined). The transfer Sulaimon had just three points (1-of-4 FG) in 12 minutes with Duke versus the Spartans last season, and is coming off a horrible outing Tuesday when he finished with just two points (0-for-4 FG, 2-4 FT) and one rebound in 41 minutes of action.

Michigan State averages just slightly more points than Maryland at 78.6 PPG (70th in nation) and also shoots extremely well from the floor at 48.3% FG (29th in D-I) and 39.7% threes (18th in nation), and has a solid 71.4% FT (102nd in D-I). Rebounding has always been a staple of this program, and this team is also relentless with a +12.2 RPG margin (4th in nation). Great passing (20.1 APG, 2nd in D-I) sets up the high shooting percentages, and turnovers are not a problem at 12.1 per game (88th in nation). This is also an elite defensive unit that limits opponents to 63.2 PPG (21st in D-I) on 37.4% FG (9th in nation) and 28.3% threes (8th in D-I). These numbers are even more remarkable when considering the Spartans force mere 9.3 turnovers per game (3rd-fewest in nation), but they are a fierce shot-blocking team at 5.3 BPG (35th in D-I). The clear leader of this team is G Denzel Valentine, who is all over the court with 18.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 6.6 APG and 1.1 SPG, and shoots 45% FG overall, 42% threes and 82% FT. He has increased his FG Pct. in each of his four games since returning from injury and has dropped 47 points on 10-of-16 threes over the past two games. But Valentine was shut down in three meetings versus Maryland last season where he scored just 16 points (5.3 PPG) on 6-for-26 shooting and 2-of-18 threes. If he goes cold again, senior G Bryn Forbes (13.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG) will hope to continue his roller-coaster offense in the past four games of 20, 2, 12 and 3 points. Forbes is deadly from outside (46% threes), but has made only 3-of-15 threes during his team's current losing skid. G Eron Harris (10.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG) is the final double-digit scorer on this team, and he has recorded at least 10 points in seven of the past eight contests. Harris was nearly perfect in Wednesday's loss versus Nebraska (5-of-6 FG, 4-of-4 threes) to finish with 14 points in 22 minutes. Senior F Matt Costello (9.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is the team's best inside presence, and he has been a beast on the boards with 69 rebounds over the past six games (11.5 RPG). In three meetings with Maryland last year, Costello averaged 10.3 PPG and 5.3 RPG. Freshman F Deyonta Davis (8.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) also provides scoring down low with his 6-foot-10, 245-pound frame. Davis produced 13 points and seven boards on Wednesday and kept his blocks average at 2.0 BPG this season with two more swats against the Huskers.


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