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Red-hot No. 10 Texas A&M hosts LSU Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/19/2016  at  3:16:00 PM
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LSU TIGERS (11-6, 4-1 SEC)

at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (15-2, 5-0 SEC)

Reed Arena - College Station, TX
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Texas A&M -7, Total: 152.5

No. 10 Texas A&M seeks a ninth straight victory on Tuesday night when it hosts Ben Simmons and surging LSU.

The Tigers (5-10 ATS) are heating up with seven wins in their past nine contests, but needed a Craig Victor put-back with under five seconds left to outlast 8-point underdog Arkansas 76-74 at home on Saturday. They have struggled outside of Baton Rouge all season at 1-5 (SU and ATS) and now visit the Aggies (6-4-2 ATS) who have won all 10 of their home games this season by a whopping +21.9 PPG margin. They are also riding high after a 79-45 romp at Georgia that marked their biggest conference road win in program history. These schools have each won three of the six meetings as SEC foes, with Texas A&M sweeping last season's two-game series (67-64 on road, 68-62 at home) and also winning two straight at home over LSU. But with Tuesday's sizable spread, there are plenty of reasons for bettors to wager on either school. The Tigers are 55-31 ATS after a home conference win since 1997, and 27-15 ATS versus a winning team after 15+ games under head coach Johnny Jones. Texas A&M is 30-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997, and is 11-2 ATS versus good passing teams (16+ APG) under head coach Billy Kennedy. The only recent omission for either team is Aggies C Tonny Trocha-Morelos (7.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG), who has been suspended indefinitely.

Will LSU give Texas A&M a scare on Tuesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. StatFox Brian has a stellar 68% ATS mark (17-8) in the past five weeks and has a 66% ATS mark (23-12) over the past seven weeks. StatFox Gary is catching fire with a 67% ATS (10-5) record over the past three weeks, and StatFox Scott is 62% ATS (8-5-2) in this same timeframe.

LSU has a potent offense that produces 82.8 PPG (23rd in nation) on 47.5% FG (39th in D-I), but makes a subpar 32.4% threes (252nd in nation). This is also a mediocre rebounding team (+1.9 RPG margin, 145th in D-I) and foul shooting team (66.6% FT, 260th in nation), but is very unselfish with 16.7 APG (30th in D-I). The Tigers are very efficient on offense with only 11.9 turnovers per game (81st in nation), and they have also forced 14.5 TO per game (74th in D-I), which equals a strong +2.8 TO margin (43rd in nation). This helps combat an otherwise lackluster defense that is allowing 75.6 PPG (265th in D-I) on 43.2% FG (183rd in nation) and 35.6% threes (253rd in D-I). Freshman F/C Ben Simmons has not shown a weakness in any area, as he scores 20.0 PPG on 56% FG (both 3rd in SEC), 33% threes and 74% FT, while chipping in a hefty 12.9 RPG (4th in nation), 5.1 APG, 1.8 SPG and 1.1 BPG. The 6-foot-10 Simmons leads the SEC (T-5th in Div-I) with 13 double-doubles, including five in his past six games where he's averaged 21.7 PPG and 12.7 RPG. Senior G Keith Hornsby (14.2 PPG, 48% FG, 42% threes, 87% FT) has scored at least eight points in all 10 of his games this season, but has been held to 10 points or less in four straight contests. Hornsby needs to be louder than he was versus the Aggies last season when he scored only 16 points on 6-of-19 FG (4-of-13 threes) in the two defeats. Sophomore F Craig Victor II (13.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) has scored at least 10 points in eight of his nine games thanks to a healthy 50% FG clip, but his 47% FT rate is really troublesome. Victor, a 6-foot-9 transfer from Arizona, is also a stellar defensive player with 1.6 SPG and 1.2 BPG on the season. His heroic bucket in the closing seconds on Saturday gave him 16 points and 12 rebounds, which marks Victor's second double-double in the past four games. Another huge contributor on Saturday was senior G Josh Gray (7.9 PPG, 2.4 APG), who scored 15 points on 6-of-8 FG with three assists. All of these players will need to bring their "A" games to compete with an excellent Aggies squad.

Texas A&M is a strong offensive team with 79.5 PPG (58th in nation) on 46.9% FG (51st in D-I) and 38.5% threes (34th in nation). The team loves to share the basketball (19.0 APG, 8th in D-I) and keeps the turnovers down to 12.3 per game (107th in nation). Rebounding is also solid at +4.7 RPG (65th in D-I), but foul shooting can be problematic at 65.3% FT (287th in nation). The defense is also top-notch with only 64.8 PPG allowed (38th in D-I) on 39.8% FG (43rd in nation) and 32.3% threes (90th in D-I). Racking up 7.9 steals per game (41st in nation) and 3.7 blocks per game (146th in D-I) certainly helps the Aggies force an impressive 16.0 turnovers per game (25th in nation). Their two main scorers are a pair of seniors, F Jalen Jones (17.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and G Danuel House (15.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.4 APG). Jones has scored at least 11 points in eight straight games, where he has averaged 19.6 PPG and 7.6 RPG. His lone double-double of the year came on Saturday when he had 12 points and 12 rebounds in just 26 minutes at Georgia. Jones was a big part of his team's season sweep of LSU last season when he averaged 14.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG. House was even better against the Tigers with 19.0 PPG on 52% FG and 5-of-10 threes in the two victories. House has scored at least a dozen points in all but one game this season, and has averaged 19.0 PPG over his past three contests. The third double-digit scorer is 6-foot-10 freshman C Tyler Davis (10.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG), who is shooting a robust 67% from the floor this season. After struggling with a horrid 31% FG clip (8-for-26) in his first four January games, Davis made all four of his shots on Saturday. Senior PG Alex Caruso (7.9 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.4 RPG) is a pass-first point guard who rarely makes mistakes with a strong 2.6 Ast/TO ratio and more steals (38, 2.2 per game) than turnovers (34, 2.0 per game) this season. After failing to surpass eight points in his first eight games this season, Caruso has scored in double-figures in six of the past nine contests, making 5-of-6 shots in Saturday's blowout win.


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