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No. 9 Duke hosts Notre Dame on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/15/2016  at  3:34:00 PM
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NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (11-5, 2-2 ACC)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (14-3, 3-1 ACC)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -8.5

No. 9 Duke looks to bounce back from Wednesday's loss when it hosts an up-and-down Notre Dame team on Saturday afternoon in Durham.

The Fighting Irish (11-5 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) have alternated wins and losses in the past five games, and secured a 72-64 home victory versus 8-point underdog Georgia Tech on Wednesday, resulting in an ATS push. The Blue Devils (14-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 68-63 loss at 7.5-point underdog Clemson on Wednesday, which ended their five-game win streak. Notre Dame is playing only its second game as an underdog all season, with the first such contest being a 77-66 defeat at 9-point favorite Virginia on Jan. 2. That was the only true road loss this season for the Irish, who are 2-1 (SU and ATS) on the road with wins at Illinois on Dec. 2 and at Boston College on Jan. 7, when they shot a blistering 62% FG and 65% threes. Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season, going 6-2-1 ATS in Durham with a +27.0 PPG margin. These teams have met just four times as ACC combatants, with the Irish winning three of those matchups (SU and ATS) including the last one on March 13, 2015 when Notre Dame rolled to a 74-64 win in the ACC Tournament semifinals. But in the lone meeting at Cameron Indoor Stadium one month earlier (Feb. 7, 2015), the Blue Devils won a 90-60 blowout. The key injury in this game is Duke F Amile Jefferson, who remains out indefinitely with an injured foot.

Can Duke get back in the win column with a sizable victory on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. StatFox Brian has a 70% ATS mark (14-6) in the past four weeks, while StatFox Gary is catching fire with a 70% ATS (7-3) record over the past two weeks.

Notre Dame's offense has been strong this season with 78.2 PPG (80th in D-I) on a blistering 49.9% FG (8th in nation) and 39.1% threes (26th in D-I). Ball protection has been key, as the Irish are committing only 9.5 turnovers per game (4th in nation), and they are also a solid rebounding team with a +4.6 RPG margin this season (69th in D-I). Five Notre Dame players average double-figure points, led by G Demetrius Jackson (17.1 PPG, 5.4 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG), who makes shots on impressive clips of 49% FG, 40% threes and 75% FT. Jackson has pumped in 17+ points and 6+ assists in four straight games (19.8 PPG, 7.3 APG), and was a big reason his team beat Duke last March with 15 points (6-of-11 FG), five assists and three steals. F Zach Auguste (13.9 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG) rarely takes a bad shot, as evidenced by his 56% FG rate this season. Auguste is coming off a season-high 24 points (10-of-13 FG) with nine boards in Wednesday's win over Georgia Tech, which was one rebound shy of his 10th double-double this season. Auguste got himself in foul trouble in the last meeting with Duke, but still managed to tally eight points, six rebounds and two blocks in 25 minutes before fouling out. The other three big scorers for this school are G Steve Vasturia (11.9 PPG, 3.1 APG, 3.0 RPG), F V.J. Beachem (11.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Bonzie Colson (11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG). The junior Vasturia did not shoot well on Wednesday (6 points on 3-of-9 FG), but that followed a four-game stretch of 13+ points for each contest on an impressive 64% FG (23-of-36). The sharp-shooting junior Beachem knocks down 45% threes this season, while the 6-foot-5 Colson shoots 57% from the floor. Colson had a monster game in last year's ACC Semifinals, when he came off the bench to score 17 points (5-of-9 FG, 7-of-8 FT) with five rebounds. Defensively, this team has a tough assignment with the Blue Devils, but this is a disciplined bunch that commits only 15.0 fouls per game (4th-fewest in nation) and still blocks 4.3 shots per game (94th in D-I). But due largely to the lack of forced turnovers (9.8 TOPG, 340th in nation), the team is allowing a pedestrian 68.3 PPG (114th in D-I) on 42.3% FG (146th in nation) and a brutal 38.0% threes (313th in D-I). That doesn't bode well against a Saturday opponent that can light teams up from long distance.

Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging a collective 86.6 PPG (5th in nation) on 48.1% FG (33rd in D-I) and 38.7% threes (30th in nation). The team is a decent foul-shooting squad at 72% FT (71st in D-I), and really helps itself out by ranking eighth in the nation in made free throws (329) and 13th in free-throw attempts (455). The Blue Devils are a quality rebounding team with a +4.5 RPG margin (75th in D-I), and they don't hurt themselves with turnovers either (10.2 TOPG, 13th in nation). This offense needs to be super efficient, because defense is not a strong suit with 69.3 PPG allowed (139th in D-I) on 42.9% FG (167th in nation) and 34.5% threes (205th in D-I). Five different players average at least 10 points per game for Duke, led by G Grayson Allen (20.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.6 BPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 16 points in six straight games (20.7 PPG) and made 7-of-9 shots at Clemson on Wednesday. The 6-foot-9 Ingram has not yet hit that freshman wall with 10 straight games of 14+ points, where he's averaged a whopping 20.2 PPG. The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are G Matt Jones (13.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG) and freshman F/G Luke Kennard (11.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG). While Jones prefers to stroke from long range (42% threes), Kennard loves driving to the hole and getting to the foul line, where he is almost automatic at 93% FT (55-of-59). Jones was a non-factor in the loss to Notre Dame last season, when he scored only four points on 1-of-4 FG with one rebound, one steal and zero assists in 28 minutes.


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