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Lowly Chargers face Broncos on Sunday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 12/31/2015  at  3:13:00 PM
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-11)
at DENVER BRONCOS (11-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -9.0, Total: 41.5

The Broncos will host the Chargers in a game with major playoff implications in their regular season finale.

The good news for the Broncos is they’re in the playoffs, and can even earn the top seed in the AFC with a win and loss by the Patriots. At the same time, they can also fall all the way to the #6 seed should they fall, and Kansas City & New York both win their games. San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS), despite falling at Oakland 23-20 (OT), did win their 3rd straight game ATS and 4th in their last five games. The Chargers were unable to find a way to win once again, dropping to 3-8 SU in one-possession games this season. Denver (11-4 SU, 7-6-2 ATS) rallied from a 14-point deficit for the 3rd time this season, clinching a playoff berth with a 20-17 (OT) win against AFC North champion Cincinnati. Despite possessing the ball nearly nine and a half minutes less than the Bengals, the Broncos gained nearly 100 more total yards, thanks in large part to both their 8th 100+ yard rushing performance this season, and 8th occurrence holding the opposition under 200 passing yards. Trends for this game swing slightly in Denver’s favor, though there are inconsistencies in past coaching and QB performances for both teams. Brock Osweiler has not covered the spread in his last three starts (0-2 w/ 1 push) after covering the spread in two of his first three starts this season/his career. Phillip Rivers is 45-50 ATS since the start of the 2010 season, but over that same time frame, he’s also 25-21 ATS as an underdog, 19-11 as a road underdog. Since taking over in 2013, Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy is 15-9 in road games, 14-6 as a road underdog, though his success against fellow AFC West teams has been far more difficult to come by, covering the spread just six times in 18 opportunities. First-year Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has found success following close wins, going 5-0 ATS following a victory of six points or less, but he’s struggled to maintain early season success, covering the spread just three times in the last 10 games. Denver does hold the recent head-to-head advantage, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS since the start of the 2013 season. Both teams are dealing with multiple injuries. For San Diego, NT Sean Lissemore (shoulder), T King Dunlap (ankle), WR Stevie Johnson (groin), CB Jason Verrett (undisclosed), and LB Kyle Emanuel (concussion) are all questionable, while S Eric Weddle and TE Ladarius Green were both put on IR this week with groin and ankle injuries, respectively. For Denver, S Omar Bolden (groin), LB Todd Davis (shoulder), and S Darian Stewart (hamstring) are all questionable.

The Chargers’ once red-hot offense has cooled significantly in recent weeks. After going over 400 total yards five times in their first seven games, San Diego has failed to reach 350 total yards five times in their last seven games. Phillip Rivers has kept the passing game near the top of the league all season long, as the unit enters Week 17 averaging 292.3 YPG on the year (4th in NFL). He will need to put up an admirable effort against Denver on Sunday or the team will be blown out.

Denver’s QB controversy has been only a minor inconvenience for the team this season, thanks in large part to their defense. Entering Week 17, Denver has allowed 15 total YPG less than the next best team in the league, with a dominance and is as balanced as it gets: 1st in passing YPG allowed, 2nd in rushing YPG allowed. Only a 34-point performance by Pittsburgh two weeks ago has kept the Broncos from the top spot in PPG allowed; the team is currently 4th in the league in that metric.


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