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Raiders, Chiefs meet in Kansas City Sunday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 12/31/2015  at  2:57:00 PM
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OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-8)
at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -7.0, Total: 43.5

The Chiefs will attempt to complete an improbable ride to the AFC West title on Sunday when they host the division rival Raiders.

The Chiefs can win the division and earn the #3 seed in the AFC with a win and Broncos loss against the Chargers. They have already clinched at least a wild card spot, though. Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) got by fellow AFC west foe San Diego, 23-20 (OT), guaranteeing their 1st non 10+ loss season since 2011. The Raiders found the win column despite being outgained by 62 yards (averaging fewer YPP), and committing seven more penalties for 46 more yards. Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) won their 9th consecutive game SU against the Browns, 17-13, despite a season-low 122 passing yards and allowing a season-high 232 rushing yards. Much like the Raiders, the Chiefs were outgained and averaged fewer YPP, yet still found a way to win the game; the Chiefs also converted a worse % of their 3rd downs than the Browns. Betting and historical trends for the game lean slightly in Kansas City’s favor, mostly due to their head-to-head advantage. The Chiefs are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Raiders since the start of the 2013 season. Derek Carr is 15-16 ATS in his two seasons in the league, including a 9-6 ATS record in road games – 8-4 as a road underdog. Alex Smith is 47-31 ATS since the 2010 season, including a 32-26 mark as the favorite – 19-16 as the home favorite. Smith is also 6-1 ATS in his career against the Raiders, though two of those victories did come when Smith was with the 49ers. Oakland first year head coach Jack Del Rio is 4-0 ATS as road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points this season, with victories SU in three of those four games SU; the Raiders are also 29-14 ATS as a 3.5-7 point road underdog since 1992. 7-4 is the recurring record for Kansas City who have put up that record ATS since Week 5 of this season, as well as the favorite in all games this season, as well as when playing teams with losing records in the 2nd half of the season over the last three years. For Oakland, WR Amari Cooper (foot), CB Neiko Thorpe (neck), and S Nate Allen (knee) are all questionable. For Kansas City, DB Husain Abdullah (neck), RB De’Anthony Thomas (concussion) and LBs Tamba Hali (thumb) and Justin Houston (knee) are all questionable.

Despite a modest 7-8 record, the Raiders have struggled on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 22nd in the league in both total YPG and total YPG allowed. The defense has found some success stopping the run, holding four teams under 50 yards and allowing 99.3 YPG (9th in the league), but have struggled mightily stopping the pass, giving up more than 250 yards on 11 occasions and allowing 266 YPG (27th in the league). Oakland has also allowed 25.1 PPG (21st in the league). Derek Carr will need to find a way to get the offense moving, as the Chiefs have been dominant defensively this season and likely won’t have much of an issue moving the ball against the Raiders’ poor defense.

Kansas City’s post-Week 6 success can be greatly attributed to their defense, which has held opponents under 20 points seven times and forced multiple turnovers seven times during that span. Overall, the Chiefs’ +15 TO margin ranks 2nd in the league. Despite no individual player amongst the league’s top 30 rushers, the Chiefs have averaged 123.7 YPG on the ground, good for 7th in the league. Alex Smith has been an excellent game manager under center as well, ranking in the top 10 in the league in completion percentage and QB rating. As long as he can take care of the ball in this one then the Chiefs should be able to come away with a victory.


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