Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:20 p.m. ET
Line: Arkansas -13, Total: 55

Two schools peaking at the right time will collide Saturday in the Liberty Bowl when Kansas State, winners of three straight, plays a heavily-favored Arkansas squad that is 5-1 in the past six contests.

While these are both traditionally run-heavy programs, both passing offenses have averaged more than 200 YPG in the past four contests. This trend could continue on Saturday, as both schools have horrible passing defenses this season allowing more than 280 YPG and 8 YPA. The Wildcats (6-5-1 ATS) have scored 35.7 PPG during their win streak, but might not be able to stop the Razorbacks (7-5 ATS), who beat defenses both through the air with QB Brandon Allen (260 pass YPG, 29 TD) and on the ground with RB Alex Collins (116 rush YPG, 17 TD). Positive and negative betting trends are prevalent for each team on Saturday, as Kansas State is 8-1 ATS after a week off in the past three seasons, but underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% are just 4-28 ATS (13%) since 1992 when coming off an extremely close conference win (3 points or less). Arkansas is 10-2 ATS in the past two seasons after forcing zero or one turnovers, but an average offensive team (+/- 0.6 yards per play) after allowing 225 or less total yards are only 29-65 ATS (31%) since 1992 when facing a poor offense (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP). While the Wildcats appear to be fully healthy with QB Joe Hubener (lower body) upgraded to probable, the Razorbacks have a slew of injuries to deal with. TE Jack Kraus (knee) is doubtful for Saturday, while WR Eric Hawkins (concussion), LB Dwayne Eugene (thumb) and DB Cornelius Floyd (hamstring) are all questionable. But the good news for Arkansas is that top WR Drew Morgan (shoulder) and No. 3 wideout Dominique Reed (ankle) have both been upgraded to probable.

Can Arkansas cover the massive point spread in Saturday's Liberty Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

Kansas State's offense is starting to show some life with 35.7 PPG and 351 total YPG over the past three weeks, which brings its season numbers to 30.5 PPG and 341 total YPG. Running the football is what KSU prefers, as it rushes the football on 61% of its plays, leading to 163 YPG on 3.9 YPC. The passing game needs work though, as the team completes only 47% of its throws for 177 YPG and 6.6 YPA. Junior QB Joe Hubener has really struggled this year with a 48% completion rate for 1,837 passing yards (6.7 YPA), 9 TD and 9 INT. Although his team beat West Virginia in the regular-season finale, Hubener finished that game 6-of-19 for 85 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT, while rushing for just 15 yards on 12 carries. But he has produced some nice rushing outputs this season, gaining at least 88 yards on four different occasions, and scoring at least twice on the ground in four different contests. The team's No. 1 rusher is junior RB Charles Jones (656 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 5 TD), who has had at least 13 carries in six straight games, which he has turned into 476 yards on 5.1 YPC and a pair of scores. No Wildcats player has reached 500 receiving yards this season, with junior WR Deante Burton leading the squad with 477 yards (14.0 avg) and 4 TD. Burton hadn't reached 70 yards in any game this season before exploding for 135 yards on five grabs (27.0 avg) and a touchdown on Dec. 5 versus West Virginia. Despite being on the field for only 27:03 per game, the Wildcats defense has still been torched for 30.3 PPG and 443 total YPG this season with neither the front seven (159 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC), nor the secondary (283 passing YPG on 8.0 YPA) consistently stopping anybody. Of the unit's mere seven forced turnovers over the past seven games, four of those came versus Iowa State. KSU should not expect many Razorbacks miscues, as they have committed only five turnovers in the past eight weeks combined.

Arkansas holds the football for 34:08 per game this year, leading to 35.2 PPG and 457 total YPG. The Hogs choose to run on 57% of their plays, but they also throw for 264 YPG on 9.1 YPA. Senior QB Brandon Allen (65% completions, 3,125 pass yds, 9.1 YPA, 29 TD, 7 INT) has performed so well because he gets the ball out quickly, as evidenced by his mere 12 sacks taken in 344 dropbacks. He also has a great offensive line that has helped him throw for more than 400 yards on three different occasions. Since the start of November, Allen has tossed 14 touchdowns and only two picks. Junior WR Drew Morgan (751 rec yds, 10 TD) should be fully healed from his shoulder injury and looks for his fourth game of 110+ receiving yards this season. Junior RB Alex Collins continues to propel the ground game with 1,392 yards (5.6 YPC) and 17 touchdowns this year. He has rushed for over 100 yards nine times this season with six of those coming versus SEC opponents. Despite Collins' contributions to the gaudy time of possession for the offense, the Arkansas defense is still surrendering 27.7 PPG on 404 total YPG (6.1 yards per play). However, the unit stood tall in the regular-season finale versus Missouri with three points allowed on 88 rushing yards (3.5 YPC) and 83 passing yards (3.1 YPA). While the run-stop unit gives up only 120 YPG on 3.8 YPC this season, the passing defense has been much more generous with 284 passing YPG on 8.3 YPA. Although the unit has forced multiple turnovers six times this season, it has also failed to produce a single turnover in four separate contests.