Holiday Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: USC -3.5, Total: 50.5

No. 25 USC gets a virtual home game on Wednesday when it faces Wisconsin for the first time since 1966 in sunny San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

The Trojans will play this game with a new defensive coaching staff, but they still have plenty of offense with QB Cody Kessler (28 TD, 6 INT) and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (1,389 rec yds, 10 TD). The Badgers don’t have their usual punishing ground game (148 rush YPG on 3.9 YPC), but they still hold the football for an average of 33:34 (8th in FBS), including 35:00 in non-home games. Wisconsin also has a suffocating defense allowing a mere 13.1 PPG on 267 total YPG, while USC allows 25.9 PPG and 401 total YPG. There are plenty of betting trends to prompt wagers on either side, as the Badgers are 41-18 ATS when facing good teams (60% to 75% win pct) since 1992, and underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less YPG) after a rushing advantage of +125 or more are 85-42 ATS (67%) in this same timeframe. However, the Trojans are 11-1 ATS after an SU loss since 2013 and are also 6-0 ATS after giving up at least 37 points in the past two seasons. Both schools could be short-handed for this contest, as Wisconsin will be without LB Jack Cichy (suspension) for the first half and has two questionable players in DB Derrick Tindal (back) and OL Walker Williams (undisclosed). USC will not have the services of RB Tre Madden (knee), while CB Kevon Seymour (ankle), WR Isaac Whitney (collarbone) and OT Chad Wheeler (legal) are all doubtful to play, and S Leon McQuay III (knee) and K Alex Wood (concussion) are both questionable. However, Badgers RB Corey Clement (groin) and Trojans star QB Cody Kessler (thumb) are both expected to play.

Can Wisconsin pull off the upset on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

Wisconsin's offense has not been as powerful as it usually is, but the team still produces 27.1 PPG and 377 total YPG. The Badgers run the football 55% of the time, but have an underwhelming 148 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC to show for it. They have been strong through the air though with 229 passing YPG on 7.1 YPA despite the poor decision making of QB Joel Stave. The senior has a 60% completion rate and 2,470 pass yds (7.2 YPA), but has more picks (11) than touchdown tosses (10). Stave's struggles have been especially great in the past eight games where he has thrown only three touchdowns and has been intercepted nine times. Wisconsin's top rusher is junior RB Dare Ogunbowale (769 rush yds, 4.2 YPC, 7 TD) who is coming off a season-high 155 yards on 33 carries (4.7 YPC) and a touchdown at Minnesota. The team is hoping to relieve some of that workload with a healthy RB Corey Clement. The 219-pound junior has played in just three games this year (155 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 4 TD), but Clement ran for 949 yards (6.5 YPC) and 9 TD last season, including 105 yards on 15 carries (7.0 YPC) in his team's Outback Bowl victory. The Badgers defense is outstanding, as they hold opponents to a paltry 13.1 PPG on 267 total YPG. Opposing rushers are producing only 98 YPG on 3.2 YPC, and opposing quarterbacks haven't fared much better in completing only 49% of their throws for 169 YPG and 5.6 YPA. Wisconsin also does a nice job in creating turnovers with six games of 2+ takeaways including four such instances in the past five games. However, its Wednesday opponent is extremely disciplined, as evidenced by its meager four giveaways in the past seven games combined.

USC's potent offense has produced a healthy 34.9 PPG on 450 total YPG (6.3 yards per play) this season. While the Trojans are known for their great air attack (273 YPG on 8.3 YPA), they actually choose their ground game 54% of the time, leading to a strong 176 rushing YPG on 4.6 YPC. With RB Tre Madden (knee) not able to play Wednesday night, both junior RB Justin Davis (875 rush yds, 5.6 YPC, 5 TD) and freshman RB Ronald Jones II (940 rush yds, 6.5 YPC, 8 TD) will be tested against a tough front seven. Davis has racked up 370 yards on 58 carries (6.4 YPC) over the past three contests, including 99 against a tough Stanford run defense in the Pac-12 title game while Jones gained 50 yards on just six carries (8.3 YPC) against the Cardinal, giving him six games of 8+ YPC this season. The Trojans may opt to throw the football more than usual, which is good news for QB Cody Kessler (68% completions, 3,315 pass yds, 8.0 YPA, 28 TD, 6 INT) who has 11 TD and only one interception in the past seven games combined. The senior will continue to heavily target sophomore WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (85 rec, 1,389 yds, 10 TD) who has five outputs of 135+ receiving yards in 2015 and is coming off a season-high 11 receptions versus Stanford. The USC defense has played pretty well this year with 25.9 PPG allowed on 401 total YPG, but has been torched for 36.7 PPG on 454 total YPG over the past three games. The Trojans have an adequate run-stop unit allowing 147 rushing YPG on 4.0 YPC, but they have struggled to defend the pass with 254 YPG allowed on 7.7 YPA and 63% completions. But their opponent's quarterback has a tendency to force the football into heavy coverage, and USC has produced 14 interceptions as part of its 23 takeaways this season.