StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Mississippi St. and NC State play Wednesday in Charlotte
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2015  at  5:28:00 PM
  Print This Article    

NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (7-5)
vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (8-4)

Belk Bowl
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Wednesday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Mississippi State -6, Total: 60

Two teams looking to avoid a season-ending losing skid will meet in Wednesday's Belk Bowl in a Charlotte location that benefits NC State much more than Mississippi State.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

The Wolfpack (6-6 ATS) have alternated losses and wins in each of their past seven contests while the Bulldogs (7-5 ATS) had their win-loss pattern began in November. NC State QB Jacoby Brissett (19 TD, 4 INT) and Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott (25 TD, 4 INT) rarely make mistakes, and have led their teams to 33.7 PPG and 33.0 PPG, respectively, this year. The Wolfpack are 6-2 SU in their past eight bowl games, which includes a 31-24 win at the 2011 Belk Bowl. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are also 6-2 SU in their past eight bowls, but were steamrolled by Georgia Tech 49-34 in last year's Orange Bowl. Both schools have positive trends for bettors to look at, as NC State is 8-0 ATS in the past two seasons after committing one or less turnovers, and is 23-10 ATS away from home when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992. However, Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS this season after playing a home game, and its Wednesday opponent is 1-8 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers since 2013. The Wolfpack have no new injuries to worry about, but the Bulldogs will be missing TE Gus Walley (concussion), LB Zachary Jackson (personal) and DL Ryan Brown (foot), and could also be without a pair of questionable players in LBs Gerri Green and DeAndre Ward, who are dealing with legal problems.

Can Mississippi State win comfortably in this matchup on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

NC State's offense is scoring 33.7 PPG on 412 total YPG this season, and achieves this through a balance of 56% run and 44% pass. While the Wolfpack rush for an impressive 202 YPG on 5.0 YPC this year, they also throw for a strong 210 YPG on 6.6 YPA. Junior QB Jacoby Brissett has done it all this year, as he has completed 61% of his throws for 2,448 yards (6.7 YPA), 19 TD and 4 INT, and has also rushed for 303 yards and five touchdowns. Brissett had a monster performance in the regular-season finale versus North Carolina when he racked up 334 total yards (206 pass, 128 rush) and four touchdowns (2 pass, 2 rush). With top RB Matthew Dayes (865 rush yds, 12 TD) out for the season with a toe injury, freshman RB Reggie Gallaspy II (316 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 4 TD) has stepped up in the past two games with 158 yards on 27 carries (5.9 YPC) and a touchdown. The team's biggest receiving threat is 236-pound TE Jaylen Samuels (64 rec, 599 yds, 7 TD), who is coming off a season-high 97 receiving yards against the Tar Heels. Defensively, the Wolfpack have held opponents to 23.7 PPG on 333 total YPG for the season, but those numbers have jumped to 36.0 PPG and 441 total YPG over the past three games. The defense is on the field for only 26:52 per contest, but still allows 144 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 188 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA. This unit has also figured out how to make plays on the football, as they have forced 14 turnovers in the past four games, which followed a paltry seven takeaways during the first eight contests this year. The Bulldogs will need to be much more careful than they have been during the past four games where they have committed nine turnovers.

Despite possessing the football for only 26:08 per game, Mississippi State's offense has remained strong all season with 33.0 PPG on 451 total YPG. Although the play-calling is divided almost evenly between pass (54%) and run (46%), the yardage totals are nowhere near similar, as the Bulldogs rack up 311 passing YPG on 8.2 YPA and gain only 140 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC. Senior QB Dak Prescott has completed a hefty 67% of his throws this year for 3,413 yards (7.9 YPA), 25 TD and only 4 INT, but all four of those picks have occurred in the past five games. Despite the interceptions, Prescott has also completed at least 70% of his throws in four of the past six contests where he has amassed 17 touchdown passes. Junior WR Fred Ross (81 rec, 933 yds, 4 TD) is the top target through the air while fellow junior WR De'Runnya Wilson (55 rec, 822 yds, 14.9 avg) leads the team with 9 TD grabs. Ross has been on a roll with 115+ receiving yards in four straight games where he has caught 41 passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns. The 6-foot-2, 230-pound Prescott is also an accomplished runner with a team-high 541 yards (3.7 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. The Bulldogs defense has been shredded during the past three games for 39.7 PPG and 446 total YPG, but is still limiting opponents to 22.8 PPG on 388 total YPG for the season. There is no particular area of strength as the front seven is giving up 172 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, while the secondary surrenders 217 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA and 62% completions. Turnovers have not been easy to come by either, as MSU has produced just 12 takeaways all season, including zero in the past two games.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: