Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ
Kickoff: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Colorado State -3, Total: 56

Two Mountain West teams, Nevada and Colorado State, will collide in the inaugural Arizona Bowl on Tuesday night.

These schools have met six times since 2005 with only one of the games decided by less than two touchdowns. The close contest occurred last year when the Rams nearly blew a 31-3 second-half lead in a 31-24 win. The star of that game was CSU WR Rashard Higgins, who caught 10 passes for 194 yards and 2 TD. Higgins has been a big part of his team’s current four-game win streak with 315 receiving yards, while Nevada, which is trying to snap a two-game losing skid, relies on a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in RBs James Butler and Don Jackson. The Wolf Pack have been the more profitable wager this year at 7-4-1 ATS (4-1 ATS away from home), while the Rams are just 6-5 ATS overall and 2-3 ATS away from home. Both schools are backed by significant betting trends, as Nevada is 26-12 ATS since 1992 when the total is between 49.5 and 56, while its opponent falls in the category of college football teams going 21-50 ATS (30%) in the past five years after an ATS loss and facing an opponent with 3+ straight ATS victories. But Colorado State is 11-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses (4.75+ YPC allowed) in the past three seasons, and is 50-27 ATS after a 2-1 ATS record in a three-game stretch since 1992. Both teams are dealing with several injuries for Tuesday's game, as the Wolf Pack won't have OL Joey Anglemire (knee), DB Tere Calloway (personal) is doubtful and three others are questionable in DB Jarid Joseph (concussion) and LBs Travis Wilson (shoulder) and Matthew Lyons (foot). The Rams lost DB Trent Mathews for the season with a torn ACL, FB Nu'uvali Fa'apito (concussion) is doubtful and both OL Nick Callender (ankle) and DB Preston Hodges (undisclosed) are listed as questionable for Tuesday.

Which school Mountain West school will end its season with a victory? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

Nevada is averaging a pedestrian 26.1 PPG on 378 total YPG this season, but has been able to chew up the clock for 31:28 per game by running the football 62% of the time. This has resulted in a hefty 206 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC, while the air attack picks up only 172 YPG on 6.5 YPA. Sophomore RB James Butler has 1,156 yards on the ground this season on 6.3 YPC and eight touchdowns. He has topped 100 yards on seven different occasions this year, but is coming off a season-low 20 yards on eight carries in the loss at San Diego State. Butler also struggled in last season's loss to Colorado State when he picked up just 29 yards on 11 carries. Senior RB Don Jackson (1,025 rush yds, 4.6 YPC, 8 TD) wasn't much better versus CSU (13 rush, 43 yds, 3.3 YPC) and has also seen his production wane in the second half of the season. After gaining 569 yards on 5.4 YPC and 6 TD in his first six games, Jackson has amassed only 456 yards on 3.9 YPC and 2 TD in the past six contests. Junior QB Tyler Stewart (58% completions, 2,065 pass yds, 15 TD, 7 INT) has had a decent year, but has really struggled in the past two games where he has connected on just 20-of-41 passes for 283 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. But Stewart will continue to feed top WRs Jerico Richardson (64 rec, 708 yds, 5 TD) and Hasaan Henderson (50 rec, 709 yds, 4 TD), who both had big games versus the Rams last year. Richardson finished with 10 catches for 122 yards that day while Henderson caught a fourth-quarter touchdown pass. The Wolf Pack defense hasn't been great in any facet this season, giving up 27.2 PPG on 395 total YPG, which is broken down between 190 rushing YPG (4.8 YPC) and 205 passing YPG (6.7 YPA). While the unit has produced six games with multiple takeaways, it has failed to produce a turnover four times this season, including two of the past three games. Ball protection is of the utmost importance with the Rams who have only 10 giveaways in their seven wins (1.4 per game), but have turned the football over 16 times in their five defeats (3.2 per game).

Despite the turnovers, Colorado State's offense has still scored 30.2 PPG on 417 total YPG this season, which includes 37.0 PPG and 455 total YPG in the past three contests. The Rams lean more heavily to their rushing attack with 59% of their play-calls being runs, but have been able to move the football both on the ground (196 YPG on 4.8 YPC) and through the air (221 YPG on 7.6 YPA). Sophomore QB Nick Stevens (62% completions, 2,369 pass yds, 7.8 YPA, 21 TD, 12 INT) is the key to this offense, as his team has lost all three games in which he has thrown at least two interceptions. Before his subpar regular-season finale at Fresno State (11-of-21, 85 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT), Stevens had completed at least 65% of his throws in six straight games. One thing he has done well all season is to avoid big losses, as Stevens has absorbed only 12 sacks on his 305 dropbacks. Junior WR Rashard Higgins (66 rec, 933 yds, 8 TD) has 549 more receiving yards than all of his teammates and his pair of long TD receptions from 51 and 42 yards out played a huge role in winning at Nevada last year. The Rams rely on three main players to rush the football in sophomore RB Dalyn Dawkins (805 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 2 TD), senior RB Jasen Oden Jr. (695 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 5 TD) and freshman RB Izzy Matthews (503 rush yds, 5.9 YPC, 5 TD). The speedy 175-pound Dawkins is also an accomplished receiver (21 catches), the 218-pound Oden runs mostly north-south and the 215-pound Matthews is arguably the most complete back on the roster. Matthews has been outstanding during the team's four-game win streak with 331 rushing yards on a hefty 6.4 YPC and 4 TD, including a season-high 140 yards in the win at Fresno State. The CSU defense has nearly identical 2015 numbers (27.2 PPG, 394.3 total YPG) to Nevada (27.2 PPG, 394.7 total YPG) and like the Wolf Pack, the Rams also struggle more in stopping the run (208 YPG on 4.9 YPC) than defending the pass (186 YPG on 7.2 YPA). Colorado State also has the same amount of takeaways as the Nevada defense in each of the past four games with four, zero, three and zero.