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No. 17 Baylor takes on No. 10 UNC Tuesday in Orlando
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2015  at  3:03:00 AM
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BAYLOR BEARS (9-3)
vs. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-2)

Russell Athletic Bowl
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 5:30 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 69

Slumping No. 17 Baylor tries to forget a disappointing final month of the season when it matches up with an excellent No. 10 North Carolina team Tuesday at the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando.

The Bears (5-7 ATS) started the season 8-0, but injuries to their top two quarterbacks (Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham), have left their once-potent offense in shambles. The Tar Heels (8-5 ATS) saw their 11-game win streak come to an end in the ACC Championship Game to Clemson, but still have a chance to win a school record 12th game of the season in what is their seventh bowl appearance in the past eight seasons. Baylor is playing in its sixth straight bowl after 15 years without a postseason game, but in addition to its quarterback injuries, the team will most likely be missing top RB Shock Linwood (ankle) and No. 1 WR Corey Coleman (groin). The lone injury for North Carolina is DB Sam Smiley (Achilles). Both schools have reasons to bet for and against them on Tuesday, as the Bears are 19-7 ATS (73%) under head coach Art Briles after out-rushing an opponent by 150+ yards, but are also 2-14 ATS (13%) after three straight games where they committed 3+ turnovers since 1992. The Tar Heels are 39-21 ATS (65%) after two straight games of forcing one or less turnovers since 1992, but are also 9-28 ATS (24%) after scoring 31+ points in two consecutive games in this same timeframe.

Can North Carolina win its 12th game of the season against a depleted Baylor offense? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

Baylor averages a whopping 48.0 PPG and 605 total YPG for the season, but those numbers have fallen to 27.7 PPG and 505 total YPG in the past three games. Third-string QB Chris Johnson has played in all three of these contests, where he's completed only 15-of-38 passes (39.5%) for 220 yards (5.8 YPA), 3 TD and 2 INT. Although the team will miss top WR Corey Coleman (1,363 rec yds, 20 TD), two other great pass catchers remain healthy in WRs KD Cannon (828 rec yds, 6 TD) and Jay Lee (726 rec yds, 8 TD). The sophomore Cannon has four games of 90+ receiving yards this season, but also has five outings of less than 40 yards, including two in a row. Lee has also had some big performances this year with 70+ yards on six different occasions, but has been held to one catch in each of the past two games with Johnson under center. With star RB Shock Linwood (1,329 rush yds, 6.8 YPC, 10 TD) doubtful to play, sophomore RB Johnny Jefferson (701 rush yds, 6.2 YPC, 5 TD), who steamrolled Texas for 158 yards on 23 carries (6.9 YPC) in the regular-season finale, will be the main ball carrier for an offense that averages 300 rushing YPG on 5.7 YPC this year. The Bears defense has given up 27.5 PPG and 389 total YPG this season, as it has been on the field for an average of 32:54 per game. In that time the unit has allowed 156 rushing YPG on a mere 3.6 YPC, but has surrendered 233 YPG on 6.9 YPA through the air. Baylor has forced only three turnovers in the past four games combined, but is facing an opponent with eight giveaways in its past three contests.

Although North Carolina has been sloppy with the football in the colder weather, the offense is still averaging a hefty 40.9 PPG on 487 total YPG this season. The team runs the football 57% of the time for an impressive 223 rushing YPG on 5.9 YPC, but dual-threat QB Marquise Williams has helped Carolina to 264 passing YPG on 9.2 YPA this year as well. Williams has completed 61% of his throws this season for 2,829 yards (8.8 YPA), 21 TD and 9 INT, and has spread the wealth nicely with nine players catching 10+ passes and nine players scoring at least one receiving touchdown. However, his No. 1 target is clearly WR Mack Hollins who has 711 receiving yards (254 avg) and 8 TD this year. Although Williams connected on just 11-of-33 throws in the ACC title game loss to Clemson, he still threw for 224 yards and 3 TD with only one pick. Williams has also rushed for 867 yards (6.1 YPC) and 11 touchdowns this season, which puts him second on the team behind RB Elijah Hood, who has 1,345 yards on 6.5 YPC and 17 touchdowns. The sophomore Hood has rushed for more than 100 yards on seven different occasions, and has scored multiple touchdowns against six different opponents. The Tar Heels defense has had a great season with allowing only 22.6 PPG and 411 total YPG, but those numbers have skyrocketed to 35.3 PPG and 508 total YPG over the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been gashed for 217 YPG on 4.8 YPC this season, but the secondary gives up only 194 YPG on 6.1 YPC. The Tar Heels are able to keep opposing scores down by making plays on the football. They have forced at least one turnover in 12 straight games including 3+ takeaways in four of the past seven contests.


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