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CMU faces 5-7 Minnesota Monday in Detroit
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/28/2015  at  10:55:00 AM
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CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (7-5)
vs. MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (5-7)

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Monday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line: Minnesota -4.5, Total: 48

Central Michigan tries to secure its sixth win in seven games in nearby Detroit on Monday when it faces struggling Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl.

The Chippewas (9-3 ATS) are playing in their seventh bowl in 10 years due largely to the play of QB Cooper Rush, who has thrown for 322 YPG, 17 TD and only 6 INT over the past seven games. Meanwhile, the 5-7 Golden Gophers (6-6 ATS) have a signal caller in QB Mitch Leidner who has managed only 7 TD and 6 INT over the past six contests, five of which ended in defeat. Since its victory in the 2004 Music City Bowl, Minnesota has lost seven straight postseason games. But there are positive betting trends for each school on Monday, as Central Michigan is 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the past three seasons, while the Gophers are 14-3 ATS in the second half of the year in this same timeframe. The injuries that concern Minnesota's Tracy Claeys, who took over head-coaching duties when Jerry Kill was forced to retire on Oct. 28 due to health reasons, are four questionable offensive players -- RB Rodney Smith (ankle), WR Isaiah Gentry (hamstring), WR Jeff Jones (undisclosed) and OL Ben Lauer (concussion). CMU first-year head coach John Bonamego has a pair of questionable players in DL Joe Ostman (ankle) and DB Stefon Armstead (undisclosed).

Can Minnesota avoid its eighth loss of the season on Monday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.

Central Michigan's offense hasn't been great with 26.8 PPG and 414 total YPG this season, but has been much more potent in the past three games with 28.3 PPG on 479 total YPG. Although their run/pass split is nearly even with 33 rush attempts per game and 39 pass attempts per game, the Chippewas are horrible on the ground (100 YPG on 3.1 YPC) and excellent through the air (314 YPG on 8.1 YPA). Junior QB Cooper Rush (67% completions, 3,703 pass yds, 8.1 YPA, 25 TD, 10 INT) is the star of this team with eight games of 300+ passing yards this season including three in a row. His top target is WR Jesse Kroll who leads the team in catches (59) and receiving yards (856), but Rush is also not afraid to use WR Anthony Rice (584 rec yds, 4 TD), TE Ben McCord (570 rec yds, 5 TD), WR Mark Chapman (559 rec yds, 1 TD) or WR Corey Willis (513 rec yds, 5 TD). The team's leading rushers are RBs Martez Walker (373 rush yds, 3.5 YPC, 2 TD) and Jahray Hayes (313 rush yds, 3.4 YPC, 4 TD), with Walker rushing for 119 yards in the regular-season finale versus Eastern Michigan. The CMU defense has been solid this year in holding opponents to 22.1 PPG on 330 total YPG. The run-stop unit has allowed 140 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC while the pass defense gives up only 190 YPG on 6.4 YPA.

Minnesota's offense has managed only 22.6 PPG on 357 total YPG (5.3 yards per play), but has been more efficient in the past three games with 29.3 PPG and 6.2 yards per play. The Gophers look for balance on their offense with 34 rushing attempts per game and 33 passing attempts per game, and both methods of moving the football have been successful. They run for 143 YPG on 4.2 YPC while they gain 214 YPG on 6.5 YPA through the air. Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner has thrown for a career-high 2,478 yards, but has only 13 TD and 10 INT this season. His favorite target is WR KJ Maye (706 rec yds, 4 TD), but three other receivers have three touchdown catches in WR Drew Wolitarsky, TE Brandon Lingen and WR Rashad Still. A pair of freshmen propel the ground game in RBs Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith, who have combined for 1,240 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this year. With Smith banged up, more pressure will be on Brooks (644 rush yds, 6.2 YPC, 7 TD) to perform. After rushing for 174 yards (10.2 YPC) and 3 TD versus Illinois on Nov. 21, Brooks was held to just eight yards on five carries against Wisconsin. Defensively, Minnesota gives up a pedestrian 26.1 PPG on 354 total YPG, but those numbers have worsened to 31.3 PPG and 425 total YPG in the past three contests. While the Gophers defend the pass pretty well (182 YPG on 6.0 YPA), they are weak on the ground in allowing opponents to rush for 172 YPG on 4.2 YPC. In the past three games, they have surrendered 683 rushing yards (228 YPG).


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