Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD
Kickoff: Monday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Line: Navy -3, Total: 53.5

Keenan Reynolds looks to close out his brilliant career in style on Monday when his No. 21 Navy squad hosts Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD.

The Panthers (6-6 ATS) felt that they deserved a more lucrative bowl, but their 8-4 regular season ended with three defeats in their final five games, including a home loss to 7-point underdog Miami. The Midshipmen (8-4 ATS) haven’t beaten a great team this season, but the senior QB Reynolds has continued to thrive in the triple option with 1,229 rushing yards and 21 TD, giving him an NCAA Division-I record 85 rushing touchdowns in his career. Pittsburgh is making an eighth straight bowl appearance (3-4 record) while Navy is playing in its 12th bowl in 13 years (5-6 record), and a win on Monday would give it a school record 11th win of the season. These teams met two years ago on Oct. 26, 2013 when Reynolds led his team to 10 points in the final four minutes to capture a 24-21 victory. Each school has both negative and positive betting trends for Monday, as the Panthers are 21-9 ATS in road games after forcing one turnover or less in two straight games since 1992, but are also 9-22 ATS on the road after a two-game homestand in this same timeframe. The Midshipmen are 44-19 ATS since 1992 after forcing 3+ turnovers in a game, but are also 6-16 ATS at home off one or more consecutive Unders in this same time period. All of the significant injuries for this game are on Pittsburgh's side, with RB Chris James (personal) and WR Zach Challingsworth (shoulder) both doubtful, and DE Zach Poker (foot) and DL Mark Scarpinato (upper body) both questionable to play.

Can Navy earn its school-record 12th victory at home on Monday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.

Pittsburgh has a decent offense that scores 28.2 PPG on 381 total YPG this year, and those numbers have jumped to 33.3 PPG and 418 total YPG over the past three games. The team chooses to run the football 60% of the time, which results in a strong 186 YPG on 4.6 YPC. Freshman RB Qadree Ollison (1,048 rush yds, 5.1 YPC, 10 TD) did a great job running the football after star RB James Conner (1,765 rush yds, 26 TD in 2014) suffered a season-ending torn ligament in his knee in the opener. Conner, who is unfortunately dealing with Stage 2 Hodgkin lymphoma, hopes that Ollison can pick up his sixth 100-yard game of the season on Monday. The Panthers also have a quality signal caller in junior QB Nathan Peterman (61% completions, 2,150 yds, 19 TD, 5 INT) who hasn't thrown an interception in any of his team's past seven victories. But he had a horrible outing in the regular-season finale versus Miami when he completed 13-of-27 passes for 142 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Peterman's favorite target continues to be WR Tyler Boyd who led the ACC with 85 catches, resulting in 873 yards and 6 TD. Boyd, who caught a fourth-quarter touchdown pass in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium two years ago, has also done a tremendous job running the football recently with 218 yards on just 18 carries (12.1 YPC) over the past four games. Pittsburgh has a solid defense that allows 24.6 PPG on 345 total YPG, and those numbers improve to 18.0 PPG and 295 YPG on the road where the team is 5-1 (SU and ATS). The defense was especially strong in stuffing the run (126 YPG on 4.1 YPC), and will certainly be put to the test against its opponent's triple-option. The secondary wasn't great though, allowing 218 passing YPG on 7.1 YPA. This unit forced only 15 turnovers this season and is facing a Midshipmen squad with only seven giveaways all year.

Navy's lack of mistakes has helped its offense produce 36.2 PPG on 411 total YPG this year, including 40.2 PPG on 417 total YPG at home. The offense has rushed for 319 YPG (3rd in nation) on 5.7 YPC and has held the football for 32:11 per game. QB Keenan Reynolds (1,229 rush yds, 5.1 YPC, 21 TD) needs only 81 rushing yards to surpass Denard Robinson for the most all-time among quarterbacks. He is coming off a big game against Army where he ran for 136 yards and a touchdown and also threw a 50-yard TD pass to WR Jamir Tillman, who leads the team in catches (27), receiving yards (570) and touchdown grabs (5). Two more TD for Reynolds would tie him with Kenneth Dixon (Louisiana Tech) as the all-time total touchdowns leader in FBS history. Reynolds played well against Pittsburgh two years ago when he ran for 93 yards (4.4 YPC) and touchdown and threw for 105 yards (5.8 YPA) and another score, as his team produced 17 fourth-quarter points to win 24-21. The school also has another great ball carrier in senior FB Chris Swain (909 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 10 TD), who has four 100-yard efforts this season. The Midshipmen defense has held strong all season with allowing only 21.3 PPG on 367 total YPG, and those numbers improve to 14.5 PPG on 322 total YPG in games played in Annapolis. The run-stop unit limits teams to 138 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, but the secondary is too generous in allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their passes for 229 YPG (7.5 YPA). The defense has forced multiple turnovers on eight occasions this year though, which is a big reason for the strong defensive numbers.