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Beamer wraps up Va. Tech career Saturday vs. Tulsa
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/25/2015  at  10:12:00 PM
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TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (6-6)
vs. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (6-6)

Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 5:45 p.m. ET
Line: Virginia Tech -13.5, Total: 61.5

Frank Beamer’s final game as Virginia Tech’s head coach will occur the day after Christmas versus a high-octane Tulsa squad in the Independence Bowl.

The Hokies have won three straight games outside of Blacksburg, but are facing a Golden Hurricane team that has scored 38+ points in each of their past three away games. Virginia Tech has the superior defense in this matchup (23.2 PPG allowed to 38.6 PPG allowed) but Tulsa has produced 35.9 PPG on 503 total YPG this season thanks in large part to its dynamic duo of QB Dane Evans (3,958 pass yds, 22 TD) and WR Keyarris Garrett (1,451 rec yds, 7 TD). These schools are meeting for the fifth time overall and the first time since 1978 when Tulsa prevailed 35-33 in what was the teams' fourth straight matchup decided by seven points or less. Nearly all of the betting trends expect the Hokies to roll to an easy win in Frank Beamer's final game of his 29-year career at the school, as they are 19-7 ATS since 1992 after a win by six points or less and is 27-15 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in this same timeframe. The Hurricane are a pathetic 13-37 ATS after two straight games where 60+ total points were scored since 1992, but they are also 3-0 ATS under Philip Montgomery after scoring 42+ points in the previous game. Neither team has any new significant injuries to concern themselves with.

Will Tulsa spoil Frank Beamer's last game at Virginia Tech? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 57% ATS (55-42) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s robust 63% ATS mark (20-12) during this run. Also during this timeframe that started Nov. 19, StatFox Brian has a strong 60% ATS record (12-8) in college football Best Bets and StatFox Gary is a profitable 58% ATS (7-5) since Week 13.

Tulsa doesn't waste much time on offense, using only 27:51 per game to rack up 35.9 PPG and 503 total YPG. Although it chooses to rush the football 55% of the time, the club gains only 173 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC, but is much more effective throwing the football with 330 passing YPG on 8.8 YPA. Junior QB Dane Evans (63% completions, 3,958 pass yds, 9.0 YPA, 22 TD, 8 INT) has improved greatly from last year (6.7 YPA, 17 INT) but the negative is that he has absorbed 35 sacks under center. In the past three games, Evans has thrown for 1,020 yards, 5 TD and only one interception, with 455 of those yards going to star WR Keyarris Garrett (88 rec, 1,451 yds, 7 TD). The senior Garrett's 216 yards in the regular-season finale at Tulane gives him five games of 160+ receiving yards this year. On the ground, Tulsa runs through defensive fronts with elusive 5-foot-9, 185-pound RB D'Angelo Brewer (732 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 4 TD) and burly 220-pound RB Zack Langer (714 rush yds, 3.7 YPC), who has rushed for 17 touchdowns in just 10 games this year. Defensively, Tulsa is a mess in surrendering 38.6 PPG on 532 total YPG, and those numbers have been even more dreadful in the past three contests (42.3 PPG on 569 total YPG). It's not easy to determine which aspect of this unit is more horrendous, the front seven that allows 239 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC, or the secondary that surrenders 293 passing YPG on 8.2 YPA and 62% completions. The unit's only positive aspect is its 22 forced turnovers in the past 11 games.

Virginia Tech is averaging a solid 29.0 PPG on 367 total YPG this year, but has experienced a slight drop-off in the past three games (24.3 PPG, 350 total YPG). The Hokies run the football on 58% of their plays, resulting in 151 YPG on 3.6 YPC, while the air attack gains 216 YPG on 7.3 YPA. Senior QB Michael Brewer (58% completions, 1,359 yds, 7.6 YPA, 12 TD, 6 INT) has improved nicely from last season (6.1 YPA, 15 INT), but has completed only 54% of his throws in the past three games with 5 TD and 4 INT. Brewer continues to rely heavily on top WR Isaiah Ford (63 rec, 937 yds, 10 TD) who has caught 14 passes for 276 yards and 2 TD in his past two games. On the ground, freshman RB Travon McMillian (960 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD) has really come on strong, as he has rushed for at least 80 yards in seven straight games. Defensively, Virginia Tech allows only 24.2 PPG on 354 total YPG, but not much of that comes through the air (174 YPG on 6.8 YPA and 48% completions). The run-stop unit isn't as fierce though, as it gives up 180 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC. There are a few playmakers on the unit too, as the Hokies have forced 12 turnovers over the past four contests.


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