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Indiana and Duke clash Saturday in the Bronx
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/25/2015  at  4:00:00 PM
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INDIANA HOOSIERS (6-6)
vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (7-5)

Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Indiana -2, Total: 71

Indiana and Duke, a pair of high-powered offenses (and suspect defenses), will go head-to-head in Yankee Stadium on Saturday in the Pinstripe Bowl.

The Hoosiers are averaging 36.2 PPG this season, including 47.3 PPG in the past three games, but they also allow 37.1 PPG. The Blue Devils have scored 30.5 PPG and given up 24.1 PPG in 2015, but both of those numbers climb for non-home games (36.3 PPG, 30.3 PPG) where they are 4-2 (SU and ATS) this year. These two basketball powerhouses have met just three times in football, with all three coming in the 1980's. After Indiana won in both 1980 and 1983, Duke secured a 31-24 victory in the most recent matchup in 1984. Most of the betting trends side with the Blue Devils for this matchup, such as their perfect 7-0 ATS mark when playing with 2+ weeks of rest in the past three seasons, or their 21-10 ATS record in non-conference games under head coach David Cutcliffe. The Hoosiers are a miserable 5-29 ATS after outgaining their opponent by 125+ total yards in their previous game since 1992, but are also 5-1 ATS this season after two straight games going Over the total. Duke also has fewer injury concerns, with only S Jeremy Cash (wrist) listed as doubtful for Saturday, while Indiana might be missing 1,213-yard RB Jordan Howard (knee), which could prompt QB Nate Sudfeld to throw 50 times. The Hoosiers will also be thin in the secondary with both DBs Jameel Cook Jr. (foot) and Chase Dutra (ankle) considered doubtful to play.

Who will capture the Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 57% ATS (55-42) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s robust 63% ATS mark (20-12) during this run. Also during this timeframe that started Nov. 19, StatFox Brian has a strong 60% ATS record (12-8) in college football Best Bets and StatFox Gary is a profitable 58% ATS (7-5) since Week 13.

Indiana's offense has racked up 47.3 PPG and 580 total YPG in the past three contests, which boosts its season averages to 36.2 PPG and 491 total YPG. While the team chooses to run the football 57% of the time, resulting in 205 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC, it also amasses 286 passing YPG on 8.4 YPA. Senior QB Nate Sudfeld (61% completions, 3,184 pass yds, 8.8 YPA, 24 TD, 5 INT) stands tall at 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds and has been outstanding during two straight wins (at Maryland and at Purdue) where he threw for 735 yards, 8 TD and 0 INT. His top target is sophomore WR Simmie Cobbs Jr. (914 rec yds, 4 TD) who has three 100-yard efforts in the past six games, including 192 yards against the Terrapins. If top RB Jordan Howard (1,213 rush yds, 6.2 YPC, 9 TD) is unable to play, the Hoosiers will call on No. 2 RB Devine Redding (785 rush yds, 4.1 YPC, 8 TD) to carry the mail. The 202-pound sophomore has rumbled for 274 yards on 46 carries (6.0 YPC) during his team's two-game win streak, proving he's capable of handling a large workload. The Indiana defense has been burned all season, as it has surrendered 37.1 PPG on 508 total YPG. While the run-stop unit has been gouged for 181 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC, the passing game has given up a robust 326 YPG on 7.7 YPA and 61% completions. This is a unit that desperately needs to create turnovers, but before its fluky four takeaways at Purdue, Indiana had recorded just four forced turnovers in its previous six games combined. The Blue Devils do have a tendency to give up the football though, with three turnovers in three of their past four contests.

Despite the turnover woes, Duke's offense has still averaged a strong 30.5 PPG on 431 total YPG this season. This has been achieved through a nearly even balance of 40 rushing attempts per game and 39 passing attempts per contest. The air attack is the team's most efficient method of moving the football (253 passing YPG on 6.5 YPA), but the ground game also produces a solid 178 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC. Junior QB Thomas Sirk is the leader in both categories, as he passes for 2,462 yards (60% completions, 6.3 YPA), 15 TD and 6 INT, and also runs for 648 yards on 4.5 YPC with six touchdowns. Sirk has accounted for multiple touchdowns in each of his past five games and is coming off a huge performance in the regular-season finale at Wake Forest when he completed 26-of-39 throws (67%) for 275 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT and also ran for 57 yards and another score. Senior WR Max McCaffrey had 93 of those receiving yards and both touchdowns against Wake Forest, and he currently leads the team in receptions (48), receiving yards (601) and TD catches (five). The Blue Devils are not terrible defensively, evidenced by 24.1 PPG and 372 total YPG allowed, but those numbers have skyrocketed to 31.3 PPG and 467 total YPG over the past three contests. While the front seven limits opponents to 143 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC this year, the secondary is much more generous in allowing 229 YPG on 7.8 YPA. The unit has recorded only 17 takeaways all season, but five of those have occurred in the past two games.


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