StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

UConn and Marshall clash in St. Petersburg Bowl
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/24/2015  at  4:00:00 AM
  Print This Article    

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (6-6)
vs. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (9-3)

St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Line: Marshall -5, Total: 44.5

Two teams trying to recover from blowout losses will match up in St. Petersburg on Saturday when Connecticut and Marshall collide.

The Huskies (5-7 ATS) were riding high with a three-game win streak before they were pounded 27-3 at Temple, while the Thundering Herd (6-5-1 ATS) were drilled 49-28 in their regular-season finale at Western Kentucky. UConn has played a tougher schedule, but Marshall has the better offense (32.6 PPG to 17.7 PPG) and has allowed fewer points (18.4 PPG to 19.7 PPG). Also, the Huskies are playing their first bowl in five seasons, while the Herd are 9-1 in their past 10 bowls dating back to 1998. Both schools have negative betting trends to deal with for this matchup, as Connecticut is 0-9 ATS in the past two years when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, and is also 4-14 ATS when playing on a Saturday in this same timeframe. But since 1992, Marshall is 16-32 ATS after having lost two of its previous three games and is 35-54 ATS away from home when playing on a Saturday during this time period. Both teams have some injuries to contend with, but UConn should have the services of both probable offensive players QB Bryant Shirreffs (head) and WR Brian Lemelle (lower body), but LB Matthew Walsh (knee) is questionable. For the Herd, three players are facing a possible suspension in WR Emanuel Beal and LBs Stefan Houston and Raheim Huskey.

Which school will end the season on a high note? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 57% ATS (55-42) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s robust 63% ATS mark (20-12) during this run. Also during this timeframe that started Nov. 19, StatFox Brian has a strong 60% ATS record (12-8) in college football Best Bets and StatFox Gary is a profitable 58% ATS (7-5) since Week 13.

Connecticut's offense has been bad all season with 17.7 PPG and 318 total YPG, but it has been even worse recently with 10.0 PPG and 227 total YPG (3.9 yards per play) over the past three games. The Huskies choose the run the football 58% of the time, and are able to eat up 31:17 of clock per game. But they have averaged only 125 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC this season, including 100 YPG on 3.0 YPC away from home. The passing game has posted a respectable 194 YPG on 7.2 YPA, but those numbers drop to 154 YPG on 5.8 YPA in non-home games. Sophomore QB Bryant Shirreffs (1,992 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 9 TD, 7 INT) threw only one pass in the last two games because of a concussion, but he is expected to start on Saturday. That one pass attempt was a 4-yard TD strike to WR Noel Thomas (719 rec yds, 3 TD), who was the hero of UConn's huge upset over undefeated Houston two games ago when he scored on a 45-yard reception in the fourth quarter and finished with seven catches for 108 yards. The dual-threat Shirreffs ranks second on the team in rushing yards with 428, but has done so on a feeble 3.2 YPC. The team's top rusher is RB Arkeel Newsome (760 rush yds, 4.4 YPC, 6 TD), who is also the Huskies No. 2 receiver with 40 catches for 432 yards and 2 TD. The 5-foot-7 Newsome totaled a hefty 428 yards (143 YPG) during UConn's three-game win streak that made the team bowl eligible, but he found no room to run against Temple with 13 carries for one yard and two receptions for six yards. The Huskies are playing in a bowl because of their top-notch defense that limits opponents to 19.7 PPG and 352 total YPG. In the past three games, these numbers have improved to 15.7 PPG and 260 total YPG (4.0 yards per play). The pass defense is especially strong in holding teams to 187 YPG and 6.1 YPA, but the run defense has been too generous this season in giving up 165 YPG on 4.5 YPC. UConn is a team that thrives off turnovers, tallying 16 takeaways during its six wins and only eight takeaways in its six defeats. With the Herd committing multiple turnovers on seven different occasions this year, ball protection will be of utmost importance on Saturday.

Marshall produces big offensive numbers (32.6 PPG on 400 total YPG) with a nearly perfect balance of 38 rushes per game and 36 passes per contest. This leads to 168 YPG on 4.5 YPC on the ground and 231 YPG on 6.4 YPA through the air. The Herd are also balanced on their roster, as no player has reached 700 yards from scrimmage this season, but eight players have gained more than 300 yards. Freshman QB Chase Litton (2,387 pass yds, 6.8 YPA, 22 TD, 7 INT) has led the team to an 8-2 record in the 10 games he has played with one of those losses coming in triple overtime at Middle Tennessee and the other loss coming at Western Kentucky in the season finale. Litton has thrown for at least two touchdowns in eight games, including four in a row where he has averaged 307 passing YPG with 10 TD and 3 INT. Senior WR Davonte Allen leads the team in receptions (56) and yards (696) while 6-foot-3 sophomore TE Ryan Yurachek is the best red-zone target with 8 TD catches, including one score in each of the past four games. The top rusher is 244-pound senior RB Devon Johnson (555 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 5 TD), who was lost for the season in late October with a back injury. That has allowed speedy RB/WR Hyleck Foster to pick up 409 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) in just six games (68 YPG), while 207-pound senior RB Remi Watson has 340 rushing yards (57 YPG) on 5.2 YPC in the past six contests. Marshall has a very sound defense that allows only 18.4 PPG and 371 total YPG. The secondary has given up 200 passing YPG, but on a mere 49.7% completion rate and 5.5 YPA. Although the run-stop unit allows 172 rushing YPG on 4.0 YPC, those numbers have fallen to 144 YPG on 3.6 YPC in the past two games. The Herd have also produced at least one turnover in all 12 games, including multiple takeaways on seven different occasions. However, UConn has two turnovers or less in all 12 of its contests.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: