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Georgia Southern tries to run past Bowling Green Wed.
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/22/2015  at  2:51:00 PM
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GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES (8-4)
vs. BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (10-3)

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Bowling Green -7, Total: 64

Georgia Southern will make its first-ever bowl appearance on Wednesday night when it faces high-powered Bowling Green in the GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, AL.

The Eagles (8-4 ATS) hope to fix their suddenly sagging defense before it faces the Falcons (10-3 ATS) and star QB Matt Johnson. GSU allowed 346 passing yards in a stunning 34-7 loss to 20.5-point underdog Georgia State on Dec. 5 and is now tasked with stopping Johnson, who leads the nation with 4,700 passing yards and ranks second in FBS with 43 passing touchdowns. But the Eagles lead the nation with 356 rushing YPG and their 33:26 average time of possession ranks ninth in FBS. Bowling Green will not have head coach Dino Babers on the sidelines, as he left to take the head job at Syracuse. Both schools have huge betting trends in their favor for this matchup, as Georgia Southern is 6-0 ATS this year after playing Under the total, while the Falcons are 11-1 ATS since 2013 after outgaining their opponent by 175+ total yards in their previous game. The only notable injury for either team is Falcons short-yardage RB Donovan Wilson (7 rush TD) who is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Can Bowling Green pass its way to an easy victory Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 57% ATS (55-42) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s robust 63% ATS mark (20-12) during this run. Also during this timeframe that started Nov. 19, StatFox Brian has a strong 60% ATS record (12-8) in college football Best Bets and StatFox Gary is a profitable 58% ATS (7-5) since Week 13.

Georgia Southern is scoring 34.7 PPG on 417 total YPG (6.3 yards per play) this season, but those numbers have dropped to 26.3 PPG on 341 total YPG over the past three weeks. The Eagles choose to run the football 83% of the time, which equates to 356 rushing YPG on 6.5 YPC. The one-dimensional offense throws for only 62 YPG (5.8 YPA) on 43% completions. Junior RB Matt Breida leads the team with 1,540 rushing yards on a whopping 8.2 YPC with 16 touchdowns, but has just one 100-yard effort over the past four games. Sophomore RB LA Ramsby has 772 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and 12 TD this season, with at least one score in eight straight games. The other big gainer for this team is QB Kevin Ellison, who has rushed for 642 yards on 6.4 YPC with eight touchdowns. The junior Ellison isn't much of a passer though, completing only 44% of his throws for 532 yards (6.3 YPA), 3 TD and 5 INT. He was horrendous versus Georgia State, completing just 4-of-13 passes for 53 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. The Georgia Southern defense is stout, holding teams to 23.2 PPG and 334 total YPG for the season. Opposing rushers are gaining just 133 YPG on 3.9 YPC while competing quarterbacks have had more success with 202 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. The Eagles have forced 10 turnovers during the past five games, but the Falcons have 10 games with less than two giveaways this year.

Bowling Green turned the football over just six times in its first 10 games, but has committed seven miscues during the past three contests. Turnovers are about all that can stop this Falcons offense that averages 43.4 PPG and 561 total YPG. The team drops back 43 times per game and keeps the ball on the ground 39 times every contest, leading to 185 rushing YPG on 4.7 YPC. Senior RB Travis Greene (1,220 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 14 TD) is coming off a season-high 183 yards (6.3 YPC) and 2 TD, giving him 10 scores over the past five games. Greene benefits greatly from the heroics of senior QB Matt Johnson (4,700 pass yds, 8.8 YPA, 43 TD, 8 INT) who has thrown at least two touchdown passes in eight straight games. Sophomore WR Roger Lewis (82 rec, 1,476 yds, 15 TD) has seven instances of 100+ receiving yards this season, including three games of at least 200 yards. However, Lewis has been held to 75 yards or less in three straight contests. Defensively, the Falcons are mediocre at best. They allow 26.7 PPG on 410 total YPG for the season, broken down between 247 passing YPG (6.6 YPA) and 162 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC). But the defense has held four of the past seven opponents to 14 points or less, and has forced a hefty 21 turnovers in the past eight games.


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