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No. 7 Baylor visits No. 19 TCU Friday night
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/27/2015  at  6:52:00 AM
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BAYLOR BEARS (9-1)
at TCU HORNED FROGS (9-2)

Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -1, Total: 77

No. 7 Baylor tries to keep its slim conference title hopes alive when it visits in-state rival No. 19 TCU on Friday night.

The Bears (5-5 ATS) need two more wins -- Friday at TCU and next week versus Texas -- plus an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday to capture the Big 12 title. But they will be using third-string QB Chris Johnson for Friday's matchup due to Seth Russell (neck) and Jarrett Stidham (ankle) both being out for the season. Also, top RB Shock Linwood is questionable for Friday with a knee injury. The Horned Frogs (5-6 ATS) also have major injury problems with QB Trevone Boykin (ankle) being a game-time decision, and superstar WR Josh Doctson out after suffering a season-ending wrist injury last week. Friday marks the sixth Big 12 battle between these schools, and last season Baylor won a 61-58 shootout and also prevailed 41-38 in its last trip to Fort Worth in 2013. But both ATS wins went to TCU, which holds an 8-2 ATS advantage in this series since 1993. Both teams have excellent coaching trends to arm bettors with, as the Bears are 16-3 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their previous game under head coach Art Briles, and the Horned Frogs are 12-2 ATS at home versus excellent passing teams (8.5+ YPA) under head coach Gary Patterson. In addition to all the offensive injuries, Baylor could be without DB Orion Stewart (hamstring) and DL Byron Bonds (knee), who are both questionable, and TCU could be thin on the offensive line with C Joey Hunt (doubtful) and OL Jamelle Naff (questionable) both suffering from injuries of some sort.

Which injury-riddled, in-state rival will prevail on Friday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts combined for a 61% ATS (22-14) success rate last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 73% ATS mark (8-3). StatFox Brian was 71% ATS (5-2) last week, while StatFox Dave was 63% ATS (5-3).

Baylor may be down to its third-string quarterback in sophomore QB Chris Johnson, but he played very well in the win at Oklahoma State last Saturday when he completed 5-of-10 passes for 138 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT while also rushing for 42 yards on 7.0 YPC and a touchdown. Johnson has plenty of weapons on a team that averages a whopping 53.8 PPG on 644 total YPG this season, broken down between 351 passing YPG (11.0 YPA) and 293 rushing YPG (6.0 YPC). Johnson will undoubtedly try to feed top WR Corey Coleman, who has caught 66 passes for 1,306 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. The junior was a big reason Baylor was able to come back from 21 points down in the final 11 minutes last year to beat TCU, catching eight passes for 144 yards and 2 TD, including the final touchdown of the game. Another talented wideout who should get plenty of targets is electric sophomore WR KD Cannon (774 rec yds, 19.8 avg, 6 TD) who amassed 210 yards on just five catches (42.0 avg) with two touchdowns last week. In the 2014 win versus the Horned Frogs, Cannon caught six passes for 124 yards and one touchdown. If top RB Shock Linwood (1,240 rush yds, 7.1 YPC, 10 TD) can't suit up, the ground game will mostly feature sophomore RB Johnny Jefferson (461 rush yds, 5.9 YPC, 4 TD), who ran for 62 yards on 17 carries (3.6 YPC) in last week's win. The Baylor defense has given up only 27.9 PPG and 406 total YPG this season, but those numbers have ballooned to 34.3 PPG and 461 total YPG during the past three contests. The defense has been on the field for an average of 33:31 per game this year, but is still holding teams to 157 YPG on 3.7 YPC on the ground, and a respectable 249 YPG on 7.1 YPA through the air. The Bears have forced only one turnover in the past two games, but are facing a Horned Frogs offense with nine giveaways over the past three contests.

TCU is averaging 42.9 PPG on 588 total YPG this season, but has managed only 27.0 PPG over the past three games. QB Trevone Boykin (3,427 pass yds, 9.4 YPA, 29 TD, 9 INT) has been sidelined for the majority of the past two games, but the Frogs would love to have him back under center on Friday. In last year's loss in Waco, Boykin completed only 21-of-47 throws, but still gained 287 yards through the air (6.1 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT. Boykin's replacement, senior QB Bram Kohlhausen has played pretty well in the past two weeks where he has completed 18-of-30 passes for 234 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. Without star WR Josh Doctson (1,327 rec yds, 16.8 avg, 14 TD) to throw to, Kohlhausen will most frequently target senior WR Kolby Listenbee (593 rec yds, 5 TD) and freshman WR KaVontae Turpin (569 rec yds, 7 TD). Listenbee had a team-high 146 receiving yards on just four receptions (36.5 avg) and a touchdown last week. The Horned Frogs are also a strong running team with 225 YPG on 5.3 YPC, and will continue to let senior RB Aaron Green (1,099 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 10 TD) shoulder the majority of the workload on the ground. Green has topped 120 rushing yards five times this season including two in a row. TCU should also plan on feeding him the rock early and often, as he gained 67 yards on just three carries (22.3 YPC) with a touchdown at Baylor last year. TCU's defense hasn't been great this season with 26.5 PPG allowed on 402 total YPG, but has been extremely stingy at home where it gives up only 15.6 PPG on 328 total YPG. The run-stop unit allows 174 YPG on 4.3 YPC, while the secondary permits 228 YPG on 6.6 YPA. This is not a very opportunistic bunch though, with only three forced turnovers in the past four games. However the Bears have three giveaways in each of the past two games and have a third-string quarterback making his first career start on the road.


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