Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, TX
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Texas -1, Total: 72.5

Texas tries to keep its bowl hopes alive when it hosts Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night.

The Red Raiders (6-4-1 ATS) became bowl eligible back on Oct. 17, but then gave up 164 points during a three-game losing skid before winning 59-44 over Kansas State in their last game two weeks ago. The Longhorns (4-5-1 ATS) are also coming off a bye that followed a sloppy five-turnover, 38-20 loss at West Virginia, and have to win both Thursday and next week at Baylor to finish with six victories. Texas has dominated this series recently with six straight wins by an average margin of 17.8 PPG. This includes a 34-13 romp last year in Lubbock and a 41-16 blowout when these schools last met in Austin. Texas Tech is certainly the better offense of the two, especially considering the seven common opponents the schools have played in 2015, with TTU scoring 44.7 PPG and Texas producing only 22.9 PPG against these same teams. But the Red Raiders have also surrendered 44.9 PPG in these seven contests while the Longhorns have given up just 26.9 PPG. Significant betting trends exist for both sides on Thursday, as Texas Tech is 40-21 ATS versus good rushing teams (200+ YPG) since 1992, but is also 0-6 ATS after a double-digit Big 12 win under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Texas is 37-21 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse since 1992, but is also 3-7 ATS versus incredible offenses that average at least 37.0 PPG. Both rosters are mostly intact after the extra week of rest, but the Longhorns will be thin at running back with RB D'Onta Foreman (finger) doubtful and RB Johnathan Gray (undisclosed) questionable. Texas Tech's only injury concern is questionable LB Dakota Allen (ankle).

Can the Red Raiders snap their long losing skid to Texas on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts combined for a 61% ATS (22-14) success rate last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 73% ATS mark (8-3). StatFox Brian was 71% ATS (5-2) last week, while StatFox Dave was 63% ATS (5-3).

Texas Tech's explosive offense has produced 46.5 PPG on 590 total YPG this season, but those numbers fall to 30.6 PPG and 504 total YPG on the road. Although the air attack gains an eye-popping 392 passing YPG on 8.2 YPA this year, the Red Raiders are also an excellent rushing team with 198 YPG on 5.6 YPC. Senior RB DeAndre Washington is the main ball carrier with 1,282 rushing yards (6.6 YPC) and 12 touchdowns, which is 10 more than he had last season on just seven fewer carries. Washington is coming off a season-high 248 yards on 27 carries (9.2 YPC) and 3 TD versus Kansas State, and ran for 97 yards on 16 carries (6.1 YPC) versus Texas last season. Sophomore QB Patrick Mahomes has put up big numbers all season with 3,911 passing yards (8.2 YPA), 31 TD and 13 INT, and has also run for nine touchdowns on the ground. Mahomes has thrown for 3+ TD seven times this year including three straight games where he has 10 TD and only 3 INT. He has spread the wealth with eight different TTU receivers catching 20+ passes this year, but the No. 1 target is clearly senior WR Jakeem Grant, who has 78 receptions for 1,038 yards and six touchdowns. Four times Grant has eclipsed 125 receiving yards in a game, but has produced only one catch in two career meetings with the Longhorns. The Red Raiders defense is way too generous in allowing 42.4 PPG on 550 total YPG this season, and those numbers are even worse in Big 12 play (47.1 PPG on 568 total YPG). Teams have steamrolled Texas Tech for 263 rushing YPG on 5.8 YPC and also 287 passing YPG on 8.0 YPA. The Red Raiders have helped themselves out with multiple takeaways in five of the past six games, and are hoping the Longhorns haven't cured their turnover woes.

Texas had only seven giveaways in its first nine contests combined before coughing up five turnovers last game. The Longhorns are able to protect the football by choosing to run 68% of the time, gaining a solid 214 YPG on 4.9 YPC. With its top two RBs D'Onta Foreman (681 rush yds) and Johnathan Gray (489 rush yds) both banged-up, freshman RB Chris Warren III might see a lot more touches than the mere 18 carries he has gotten this year. After gaining just 33 yards on his first 10 totes (3.3 YPC), Warren has run for an impressive 55 yards on his past eight carries (6.9 YPC). Although the team has thrown for just 154 YPG this season, its 7.4 YPA isn't too bad. But freshman QB Jerrod Heard (1,202 pass yds, 7.9 YPA, 5 TD, 5 INT) has thrown for 200 yards only twice all season and is coming off a season-high two interceptions at West Virginia. Junior QB Tyrone Swoopes (334 pass yds, 6.0 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT) is usually brought in for Wildcat packages and ranks second on the team with 557 rushing yards on 4.2 YPC and three touchdowns. The team's top receiver is speedy freshman WR John Burt, who has 413 yards on a 20.7 average, but has scored only two touchdowns all season. Senior WR Daje Johnson leads the team with 33 catches and had 76 yards and a score last game. The Longhorns defense has been shaky at times this season, and allows 29.9 PPG on 429 total YPG. The run-stop unit is giving up 194 YPG on 4.2 YPC, including 229 YPG and 4.5 YPC over the past three weeks. The passing defense hasn't been much better in allowing 234 YPG on 7.4 YPA and a 62% completion rate this season. This unit has not been very opportunistic over the past six games with multiple takeaways just once during this stretch, but the Red Raiders have turned over the football 15 times in the past seven contests.