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Struggling Packers face Vikings Sunday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 11/20/2015  at  5:14:00 PM
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GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Minnesota -1, Total: 44.5

First place in the NFC North will be on the line Sunday when the struggling Packers travel to Minnesota to take on the surging Vikings.

Green Bay (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS), which started 5-0 SU and ATS, has now lost three in a row SU and four straight ATS following an 18-16 loss to the previously one-win Lions on Sunday. The Packers’ 47 rushing yards were their fewest since Week 13 of the 2013 season. Green Bay enters this divisional match-up as an underdog for the first time this season. Minnesota (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS), winners of five straight following a 2-2 start, grounded and pounded the Raiders to the tune of 263 rushing yards on Sunday in a 30-14 win in Oakland. Minnesota’s rushing total was the highest mark by the team since Week 14 of the 2011 season. The betting trends favor Minnesota, though one should really never look too far past Aaron Rodgers, who’s 52-35 ATS in his career. Minnesota is 14-5 ATS following a road game the last three years, and are 15-4 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over that same time period. Green Bay is 27-57 ATS when allowing at least 150 rushing yards since 1992, while Minnesota is 34-17 when rushing for 150 to 175 yards in that same time frame. More recently, Minnesota is 10-0 ATS over the last three years when rushing for at least 125 yards, a mark the Green Bay defense has allowed four times this season. Both coaches have had success with their respective teams, with Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy going 94-66 ATS since taking over, including a 39-19 mark in divisional games, while Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer is 18-7 ATS since taking over prior to the 2014 season. Both teams come into the game fairly healthy. Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy (groin) and WR Ty Montgomery (ankle) are both questionable. For Minnesota, LB Eric Kendricks (ribs) and DE Justin Trattou (ankle) are also both questionable.

Who will prevail in this NFC North rivalry game? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a 53% ATS collective record (76-68-3) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 58% ATS (19-14-1) this season, while StatFox Dave is 53% ATS (20-18-1). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary remains profitable this season at 54% (13-11).

Green Bay’s offense has averaged 344.3 YPG this season (21st in NFL), a large decline from both 2014 and 2013, when they averaged more than 386 YPG each season and finished both years ranked inside the Top 6 in total offense. The Packers, historically, have had late season success, going 63-38 ATS against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season since 1992. Their recent success as an underdog has not gone as well, as they’re 2-8 ATS the last three years, including 1-6 in road games with a spread of seven points or less. Aaron Rodgers has had a great deal of success against the Vikings in his career, winning 10 of his 14 starts SU while throwing 31 TDs against just 4 INTs with a completion percentage greater than 70%.

Minnesota has loved getting Adrian Peterson back this season. The Vikings are currently averaging 147.2 rushing YPG (1st in NFL), a year after averaging just 112.8 rushing YPG (14th in NFL). Even better for Peterson and company is the Packers’ poor run defense, currently allowing 116.2 YPG (24th in NFL). He should be able to have a very nice game against a familiar foe on Sunday. Another guy to look out for is Stefon Diggs, who has surprised everybody with 30 receptions for 507 yards and two touchdowns this season. He’ll look to break free against this Packers defense for a big play on Sunday. On defense, the Vikings have quietly built one of the most reliable units in the NFL, currently allowing just 17.1 PPG (2nd in NFL), just .2 PPG behind top-ranked Cincinnati.


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