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#16 FSU, #1 Clemson clash on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/6/2015  at  10:26:00 AM
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FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (7-1)
at CLEMSON TIGERS (8-0)

Memorial Stadium - Clemson, SC
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Clemson -12, Total: 55.5

The game of the year in the ACC will take place in South Carolina on Saturday afternoon when Clemson, the top-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, hosts No. 16 (Playoff Rankings) Florida State.

The Seminoles (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a confidence-boosting 45-21 victory over Syracuse last week that helped the team start to recover from its heart-breaking loss at Georgia Tech on a last-second blocked field goal the previous week. The Tigers (5-2-1 ATS) are returning home unbeaten (8-0 SU) after scoring 58 points and 56 points in a two-game road trip to Miami and NC State. Florida State has won three straight games in this series, and while the first two were blowouts (49-37 and 51-14), last year's contest was a 23-17 overtime thriller where FSU won despite rushing for 13 yards on 27 carries. But historically, Clemson has been the smarter bet at home in this series with a 9-2 ATS record since 1992. There are more Tigers trends for bettors to use for this matchup, especially their 23-7 ATS record after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in two straight games under head coach Dabo Swinney or their Saturday opponent's 1-8 ATS mark in the past two seasons after scoring 37+ points. But the Seminoles are a strong 53-33 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 225+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Florida State has many more injury concerns of the two teams with QB Everett Golson (concussion) in jeopardy of missing a second straight game, as are three key offensive linemen -- Derrick Kelly (knee), Ryan Hoefeld (shoulder) and Cole Minshew (concussion). LB Terrance Smith (ankle) is also questionable, while DT Nile Lawrence-Stample (concussion) is doubtful to play. The good news for the 'Noles is that star RB Dalvin Cook (ankle), who didn't play last week, was upgraded to probable for Saturday. For Clemson, only two players are questionable and both have knee injuries, C Zach Riggs and DT Jabril Robinson.

Will Clemson remain unbeaten with a two-touchdown win over a quality opponent? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Florida State's offense has been solid with 32.7 PPG on 441 total YPG, but those numbers fall to 18.0 PPG and 275 total YPG in three road games. If top QB Everett Golson (1,659 pass yds, 67% completions, 8.0 YPA, 11 TD, 1 INT) cannot play, the team is very confident in backup QB Sean McGuire (30-of-43, 421 yds, 9.8 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT). The senior McGuire is coming off a monster game versus Syracuse when he completed 25-of-35 throws for 348 yards (9.9 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT. Against the Tigers last season, McGuire completed only 21-of-39 passes and threw two picks, but he also gained 304 yards through the air (7.8 YPA). Sophomore WR Travis Rudolph finally had his breakout game last week when he burned Syracuse for 191 yards and three touchdowns on just five catches (38.2 avg). Sophomore RB Dalvin Cook is having a whale of a season with 1,037 rushing yards on 8.2 YPC and 11 touchdowns. He has scored in four straight games, and is quickly becoming a reliable receiver with 11 catches for 157 yards over the past three weeks. The FSU defense has been stingy all season in limiting opponents to a meager 16.7 PPG and 324 total YPG (4.9 yards per play). These numbers are even more impressive on the road -- 12.7 PPG, 293 total YPG and 4.5 yards per play. Opposing ball carriers have only 139 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, while the passing defense has held quarterbacks to 56% completions, 184 YPG and 6.1 YPA. The 'Noles have also helped themselves this year with 11 takeaways, and hope that the Tigers continue their streak of at least one giveaway in all eight games.

Despite Clemson's offense being mistake-prone at times, it has still put up gaudy numbers this season with 40.6 PPG on 485 total YPG. In ACC play, these figures balloon to 42.2 PPG and 532 total YPG. Sophomore QB Deshaun Watson has thrown for 242 YPG on 8.8 YPA with 20 TD and 7 INT this season, and has also run for 386 yards (4.9 YPC) and four scores. Last week at NC State he carried the team with 383 passing yards and six total touchdowns (5 pass, 1 rush), and Watson also played well in Tallahassee last season with 296 total yards and a rushing touchdown in the near upset of Florida State. RB Wayne Gallman (874 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 7 TD) is the biggest reason his team is averaging 216 YPG on 4.8 YPC on the ground this year. Gallman has run for more than 110 yards in five of the past six games including a season-high 172 yards in last week's win. The Tigers defense allowed 41 points the last time out, but is still holding teams to 17.6 PPG on 279 total YPG this season. While opposing ball carriers are gaining only 110 YPG on 3.1 YPC, opposing quarterbacks are completing just 46% of their throws for 169 YPG on 6.0 YPA. This Clemson unit also does a good job of making plays with 15 turnovers in the past seven weeks. However, FSU has turned the ball over just twice the entire season, and one of those was in the season opener.


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