Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, KS
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -17.5, Total: 69.5

No. 6 Baylor tries remain unbeaten on Thursday night when it visits slumping Kansas State in Manhattan, KS.

The Bears are only 4-3 ATS this season but are outscoring opponents by a whopping 36.0 PPG. Before last week's bye, they rolled up 107 points during a two-game homestand versus West Virginia and Iowa State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 3-4 ATS this year and have lost four straight games SU. While the first two of those defeats were narrow losses to schools that are still unbeaten (36-34 at Oklahoma State, 52-45 versus TCU), the past two games have been blowout losses to Oklahoma and Texas by a combined score of 78 to 9. Baylor has won by double-digits in three straight meetings of these Big 12 combatants, including a 35-25 win in Manhattan in 2013 and a 38-27 home victory last year. But since 1999, Kansas State is 4-1 (SU and ATS) when hosting in this series. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to take both sides on Thursday, as the Bears are 14-3 ATS after leading their previous game by 24+ points at halftime under head coach Art Briles, and poor offensive home teams (4.2 to 4.8 yards per play) facing average defenses (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play) after gaining 225 or less total YPG over the previous two games are a dismal 3-24 ATS in the past 10 seasons. But the Wildcats are 39-16 ATS in Big 12 games under head coach Bill Snyder, and underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points are 26-6 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games against an opponent that was involved in two straight games where 60+ total points were scored. The biggest absence in this game is Baylor star QB Seth Russell, who was lost to a season-ending neck injury the last time out and he will be replaced by true freshman QB Jarrett Stidham. DT Byron Bonds (hand, questionable) is the only other injury concern for Briles. Although Kansas State also had a bye week to get healthy, its injury list is much more extensive. DB Danzel McDaniel was lost for the season with an undisclosed injury, and four other defenders are also listed as questionable with injuries of some sort -- LB Elijah Lee and DBs Duke Shelley, Kaleb Prewett and Nate Jackson.

Can Kansas State keep the score respectable on its home turf? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Per usual, the Baylor offense has been outstanding this season with 61.1 PPG and 686 total YPG (8.4 yards per play) and is just as productive on the road with 61.7 PPG and 682 total YPG (9.0 yards play) in three non-home contests. While the Bears are thought of mostly as a passing team with 348 YPG on 10.7 YPA in Art Briles' up-tempo attack, they also possess an unbelievable rushing offense with 338 YPG on 6.9 YPC. The loss of QB Seth Russell (2,104 pass yds, 10.5 YPA, 29 TD, 6 INT) is devastating, but true freshman QB Jarrett Stidham is no slouch. He has played in all seven games this season and has eye-popping numbers of 24-for-28, 331 yards (11.8 YPA), six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The 6-foot-3 Stidham has arguably the best receiver in the nation in junior WR Corey Coleman, who already has 962 receiving yards (20.5 avg) and a whopping 18 touchdown grabs. He has scored at least two times in six straight games, and began the season with six straight 100-yard efforts before coming up just short with 85 yards versus Iowa State. The success of the ground game is largely due to the legs of junior RB Shock Linwood, who has run for 974 yards on 8.1 YPC and 9 TD. He has scored at least one touchdown in six straight contests and already has four games of at least 130 rushing yards. In last year's win versus the Wildcats, Linwood produced a game-high 91 rushing yards on 18 carries (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown. The Bears defense has given up 25.1 PPG on 382 total YPG (4.9 yards per play), which isn't too bad considering its 33:57 average time of the field due to an offense playing so quickly. They are holding opponents to 151 rushing YPG on a mere 3.5 YPC, and have allowed 231 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA. Turnovers have been a key for this team, as Baylor has multiple takeaways in all but one game this season, totaling a hefty 18 forced turnovers (2.6 per game).

Kansas State's offense began the season with 30+ points in each of the first five games, but has just nine points and 352 total yards combined over the past two contests. Despite holding onto the football for an average of 32:10 per game, the Wildcats have run for only 156 YPG on 3.8 YPC. The passing offense has been bad all season with a mere 157 YPG on 6.4 YPA and a horrendous 46% completion rate. Junior QB Joe Hubener hasn’t completed half of his passes even once during his team's four-game losing skid, throwing just 1 TD and 5 INT during this stretch of futility. Hubener doesn't have a true No. 1 target, as his only receiver with more than 250 yards this season is junior WR Deante Burton (20 rec, 261 yds, 2 TD). The team's best offensive player is RB Charles Jones (302 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 3 TD) who is coming off a career-high 122 rushing yards on 6.8 YPC in the loss at Texas. He'll need to improve upon his pedestrian 45 yards on 13 carries (3.5 YPC) and one touchdown in last year's loss to Baylor. The Wildcats defense has been a major disappointment this season with allowing 28.9 PPG and 417 total YPG. These numbers leap to 41.5 PPG and 494 total YPG in Big 12 play. The numbers for the run-stop unit aren't that bad with 147 YPG on 4.1 YPC allowed, but the passing defense has been atrocious. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 64% of their throws for 270 YPG on 7.5 YPA this season. Zero forced turnovers during the two-game losing skid has also hindered this defense that will need to create a ton of pressure on Baylor's true freshman quarterback to keep this game competitive.