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Heat host sizzling Hawks Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/3/2015  at  12:55:00 PM
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ATLANTA HAWKS (3-1)

at MIAMI HEAT (2-1)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -4, Total: 195

The sizzling-hot Hawks go for a fourth straight victory when they visit the Heat on Tuesday night.

Atlanta (1-2-1 ATS) is riding a three-game winning streak, but those victories came against the Knicks and Hornets (twice), and the pair of wins over Charlotte was by a combined five points. Miami (2-1 ATS) also beat the Hornets to start the season by 10 points, and after falling to Cleveland on the road, the club came back Sunday with an impressive 109-89 blowout of a Houston team that made the Western Conference Finals last season. The Hawks are confident that they can extend their win streak, as they have beaten the Heat six straight times (5-0-1 ATS) including four by double-digits. Atlanta is also 30-16 ATS versus teams with a winning record in the past two seasons and 29-13 ATS versus good shooting teams (46%+ FG) under head coach Mike Budenholzer. But Miami also has some positive betting trends, as the team is 164-136 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under head coach Erik Spoelstra and 26-13 ATS when hosting in this series since 1996. With Hawks PG Jeff Teague (hand) upgraded to probable, the only significant absence for either team will be Atlanta SG Thabo Sefolosha, who is doubtful to play because of an injured ankle.

Which team will avoid its second loss of the season on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2015-16 season. StatFox Zach got the season off to a flying start with a 5-0 Best Bets record in the first week.

Atlanta's offense hasn't been great this season, as it has scored 100 points only once in four games. Although its 45.2% FG clip (8th in NBA) and 23.3 APG (4th in NBA) are very strong, its 32.0% accuracy rate from three-point land is below average (21st in league). The defense is allowing 98.3 PPG (21st in NBA) in large part to surrendering a league-high 11.0 made threes per game. Although they have limited opponents to a weak 39.4% FG rate (5th in NBA), the Hawks are still getting outrebounded by a wide margin of 8.5 RPG. Five Hawks are averaging double-figures this year, led by PG Jeff Teague (18.3 PPG, 5.0 APG). Teague also led the way in the series with the Heat last season when he averaged 21.5 PPG (59% FG), 7.5 APG and 2.0 SPG. PF Paul Millsap was also a big part of the season sweep of Miami with 19.0 PPG (54% FG), 7.3 RPG and 3.8 APG. So far in 2015-16, Millsap is filling the stat sheet with 16.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 4.5 APG and 1.8 SPG. C Al Horford (17.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG), PG Dennis Schroder (13.3 PPG, 47% FG) and SG Kent Bazemore (11.0 PPG, 54% threes) are the other double-digit scorers for this team. Schroder produced 13.5 PPG and 7.5 APG versus the Heat last season, while Horford's 13.3 PPG in the series came on a blistering 77% shooting.

Miami has shot the ball exceptionally well all season with 47.0% FG (4th in NBA) and league-best rates in threes (42.9%) and free throws (87.5%). But the team still ranks 22nd in scoring (101.7 PPG) because it's not playing at a fast pace. The Heat rank among NBA's worst five teams in FGA per game (78.7, 4th-fewest), 3-pt FGA per game (21.0, 5th-fewest) and also FTA per game (21.3, 5th fewest). They also have the least amount of offensive rebounds in the league at 6.3 per game. The defense has been strong all season with 95.0 PPG allowed (3rd in NBA) on 41.8% FG (12th in league) and 25.9% threes (4th in NBA). This has been achieved despite forcing only 12.7 turnovers per game (3rd-fewest in league). Four Miami players are averaging at least a dozen points this season, led by SG Dwyane Wade's 21.7 PPG on 45% FG. Wade also played well offensively versus the Hawks last season with 21.0 PPG on 50% FG (38% threes) with 4.0 APG and 1.7 SPG. But the team's best player in the Atlanta season series was PF Chris Bosh who averaged a near double-double with 23.5 PPG (52% FG) and 9.5 BPG in his two games. Bosh hasn't been able to find his shot yet this season, making only 39% of his two-point FG tries, but he's still averaging 15.7 PPG with 46% threes and 7.7 RPG. The team's major source of rebounding for this club is C Hassan Whiteside, who has a double-double average this season of 13.3 PPG and 10.0 RPG. In his one meeting with the Hawks last season, Whitehead pulled down 24 boards (8 offensive) to go along with 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting. SF Luol Deng (12.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) is Miami's other 12-point scorer this year, but the Heat are hoping he'll improve his subpar 41% FG clip he had in four games versus Atlanta last season when he averaged 12.3 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 31.3 MPG.


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