Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Toledo -8

Northern Illinois tries to keep its MAC West hopes alive on Tuesday night when it visits undefeated No. 20 Toledo.

The Huskies are 3-1 SU in conference play, and trail the Rockets by one game, so a win on Tuesday and a victory in two weeks versus Western Michigan (4-0 in MAC) would allow them to win the division unless Central Michigan runs the table. Since losing to CMU, Northern Illinois (5-2-1 ATS) has compiled 59, 45 and 49 points in three straight victories. But Toledo (6-0-1 ATS) has won all of its conference games by at least two touchdowns with a whopping 114 points in the past two games versus Eastern Michigan and UMass. Northern Illinois has dominated this series this decade by winning all five games (3-2 ATS), but three of the past four meetings have been decided by seven points or less. The one blowout was a 35-17 win at Toledo in 2013, but the final score of last year's matchup was 27-24, as both schools played turnover-free football. There is good reason to believe the Huskies will increase their series win streak, as they are 17-6 ATS in road games in Weeks 10 through 13 since 1992 and 35-16 ATS versus penalty-prone teams (60+ penalty YPG) in this same timeframe. But the Rockets are 28-13 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 point since 1992, and underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent coming off a double-digit road win are only 12-43 ATS (22%) in the past 10 seasons. With both teams having not played since Oct. 24, injuries are not an issue for either side. The only recent injury to report for either team is Toledo LB Jaylen Coleman who was lost for the season with a leg injury a couple games ago.

Can Toledo win convincingly in this crucial MAC showdown? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Northern Illinois has produced a strong 36.7 PPG on 449 total YPG, but these numbers drop considerably on the road where the team has only 22.7 PPG on 293 total YPG (4.2 yards per play). Although the offense has possessed the football for an average of only 27:34 this season, it has still rushed for 217 YPG on 4.7 YPC. A big part of that is junior RB Joel Bouagnon (862 rush yds, 5.1 YPC, 14 TD) who has dominated conference opponents this season with four 100-yard efforts in four MAC games, totaling 524 yards (131 YPG) and eight touchdowns. The junior also caught three passes for 50 yards in the last game versus Eastern Michigan. But the Huskies are far from one-dimensional, as junior QB Drew Hare has thrown for 227 YPG on 64% completions, 13 TD and 3 INT this year. However, Hare has not enjoyed much success away from home, completing only 49% of his throws for 117 YPG and 4.3 YPA with 1 TD and 3 INT. But Hare played very well against the Rockets last season with 190 passing yards and a touchdown plus 66 yards on 16 carries (4.1 YPC). The Huskies defense has allowed only 24.5 PPG and 369 total YPG, and those numbers are even more impressive on the road (19.5 PPG, 302 total YPG). The run-stop unit is holding teams to 146 rushing YPG (3.5 YPC) this season, but the secondary has given up 223 passing YPG on 6.1 YPA. Northern Illinois has also helped itself out with at least one turnover in all eight games, but has only six takeaways in the past five contests.

Toledo's offense has been potent all season with 37.0 PPG and 471 total YPG, and has really thrived the past three contests with 50.7 PPG on 583 total YPG. The ground game has been tough to stop with 213 YPG on a whopping 5.2 YPC, and it's not just one player doing all the damage. RB Terry Swanson leads the way with 590 yards on 7.3 YPC and 5 TD, but RB Damion Jones-Moore also has five rushing touchdowns with 387 yards on 5.2 YPC. The No. 3 rusher is RB Kareem Hunt, who has pitched in 349 yards on 5.1 YPC and three scores, and Hunt was the big ground gainer at Northern Illinois last year with a game-high 119 rushing yards on 6.6 YPC. The Rockets can also take to the air though, as senior QB Phillip Ely has thrown for 248 YPG (7.1 YPA), 15 TD and 7 INT. He has been especially good in conference play with a 62% completion rate, 13 TD and 5 INT, including nine touchdown passes in the past two weeks. He did throw three picks in that win at UMass last week, which can't happen again facing a much tougher Huskies squad. Defensively, Toledo has been outstanding in allowing only 16.3 PPG on 367 total YPG. The run-stop unit is most impressive, as it has held teams to 125 YPG on 3.7 YPC, while the passing defense has been more generous with 242 YPG on 5.9 YPA. The Rockets are not turning the football over with great regularity, posting just two multi-takeaway games, but they have forced 12 turnovers for the season, which includes at least one in each contest.