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NC State tries to hand No. 3 Clemson its first loss
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/29/2015  at  9:00:00 AM
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CLEMSON TIGERS (7-0)
at NC STATE WOLFPACK (5-2)

Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Clemson -10, Total: 51

No. 3 Clemson puts its perfect record on the line when it visits North Carolina State on Saturday.

The Tigers (4-2-1 ATS) are coming off their most impressive game of the season when they pounded Miami by a 58-0 score. The Wolfpack (5-2 ATS) also had a big win last week, 35-17 at Wake Forest, which snapped a two-game losing skid. Clemson has really enjoyed its trips to Raleigh over the years, going 7-3 SU (7-2-1 ATS) in 10 visits since 1995, including a 26-14 victory two seasons ago. In last year's meeting in South Carolina, NC State couldn't get anything going and gained just 156 yards (35 passing) in a 41-0 defeat. There are two coaching betting trends that are pointing towards another big win for the Tigers. Under Dabo Swinney, the team is 22-7 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in its previous game and 17-7 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points. But not all is hopeless for the Wolfpack who are 28-13 ATS versus good defenses (17 or less PPG) since 1992, while their Saturday opponent is 6-16 ATS after 5+ straight SU wins in this same timeframe. Injuries are much more abundant for Clemson on Saturday, as two linemen are doubtful -- C Zach Riggs (knee) and DT Jabril Robinson (undisclosed) -- while two defenders are both questionable in DL Austin Bryant (knee) and DB Ryan Carter (hamstring). NC State's injury concern is only with LB Jerod Fernandez, who is questionable with a bad ankle.

Will Clemson stay unbeaten with a sizable road win? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is starting to heat up with a 58% ATS record (7-5) on Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Clemson's offense is mighty potent with 38.4 PPG and 465 total YPG (6.2 yards per play) this year, and these numbers have been even more impressive in the past three games (45.0 PPG, 545 total YPG). Last week the Tigers ran for 416 yards, which increases their season average to 213 YPG on 4.8 YPC. Sophomore RB Wayne Gallman (702 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 6 TD) ran for 118 yards last week, marking his fourth 110-yard effort in the past five weeks. Clemson is also very adept at throwing the football with sophomore QB Deshaun Watson, who has completed 69% of his throws for 1,553 yards (222 YPG), 8.2 YPA, 15 TD and 7 INT. He also produced a season-high 98 rushing yards and a touchdown on just eight carries (12.3 YPC) in the rout of Miami. Watson had his way with NC State last year when he threw for 267 yards (9.2 YPA) and 2 TD while running for 62 yards (4.1 YPC) and another two scores. Not to be outdone by the offense is a stout Clemson defense that has held opponents to a mere 14.3 PPG on 263 total YPG. In two road games, those numbers dip to 8.5 PPG on 209 total YPG. Nobody is running the football with success, as opponents have just 106 rushing YPG on a meager 2.9 YPC. The secondary is also top-notch, as quarterbacks are completing only 43% of their throws for 157 YPG and 5.9 YPA. The Tigers also hurt opponents by forcing turnovers, amassing 14 takeaways over the past six games. But it will be tough to add to these totals against a Wolfpack team with only four giveaways all season.

NC State's ability to hold onto the football this year has led to a whopping 34:49 average time of possession, and this elite ball control has resulted in 35.1 PPG on 412 total YPG. Balance has been the key to sustaining long drives, as the Wolfpack rush for 212 YPG on 5.0 YPC, while the air attack gains 200 YPG on 7.1 YPA. Senior QB Jacoby Brissett's season-high passing yards is a modest 227 (last week at Wake Forest) but he completes 67% of his passes for 1,332 yards, 10 TD and 1 INT. However, Brissett was absolutely dismal at Clemson last year when he completed only 4-of-18 throws for 35 yards (1.9 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT. If he struggles again, that will lead to another boatload of carries from RB Matthew Dayes (793 rush yds, 6.3 YPC, 12 TD). The junior is coming off a season-high 205 yards on 16 carries (12.8 YPC) and 2 TD versus Wake Forest, but Dayes has to perform much better than he did last year against the Tigers when he gained only 17 yards on seven totes (2.4 YPC). The NC State defense has been top-notch this year in holding opponents to a paltry 16.1 PPG on 251 total YPG. While opposing rushers have only 107 YPG on 3.5 YPC, opposing quarterbacks have completed just 46% of their throws for 144 YPG on 5.4 YPA. The unit has played so well despite forcing little mistakes, as the Wolfpack have produced just six takeaways all season, including four games with zero forced turnovers.


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