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Unbeaten Bengals visit Steelers Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/29/2015  at  12:00:00 PM
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CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-0)
at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -1.5, Total: 48

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return to the field on Sunday when his Steelers host the unbeaten Bengals.

Cincinnati enters this divisional game fresh off a bye week and without a loss either SU (6-0) or ATS (5-0-1). The road hasn't always been kind to this franchise, but it has amassed 31.7 PPG and 403 total YPG in its perfect 3-0 mark (SU and ATS) away from home this year. Pittsburgh ended a modest two-game win streak with a disappointing 23-13 home loss to Kansas City last week, which was its first ATS defeat all season (4-1-2 ATS). But the offense will get a big boost on Sunday with the probable return of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has missed the past four games with a knee injury. He will try to give the Steelers a fourth straight win (SU and ATS) in this rivalry after helping his team to three straight double-digit wins of 30-20 in 2013 and 42-21 and 27-17 last year. The Bengals are one win away from their best start in franchise history, and have a few betting trends expecting them to earn that 7-0 start, such as their 14-5 ATS record in the first half of the season since 2013 and Marvin Lewis going 28-15 ATS after a double-digit win as Cincinnati's head coach. But Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS after the first month of the season since 2013 and head coach Mike Tomlin is a stellar 16-5 ATS at home when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Despite the bye week, the Bengals could still be missing two key defensive players in LB Vincent Rey (ankle) and CB Leon Hall (back). The Steelers also have some major concerns on defense with LB Terence Garvin (knee) out at least two weeks, and DT Stephon Tuitt (knee), CB William Gay (shoulder) and S Will Allen (ankle) all questionable for Sunday.

Who will prevail in this AFC North showdown on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the experts have a collective 58% ATS record (60-43-2) in NFL Best Bets, including a 67% ATS success rate (20-10-1) in the past two weeks. StatFox Dave is leading the charge at 68% ATS (19-9) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (15-12-1) and StatFox Gary and Scott are both tied at 54% ATS (13-11). StatFox Scott continues to profit in NFL Totals this season at 54% (13-11).

Cincinnati's offense has been outstanding all season with 30.3 PPG and 410 total YPG. While the ground game has a strong 122 YPG on 4.0 YPC, it has been the passing of QB Andy Dalton that has brought this team to another level. Dalton is having a career year with 294 passing YPG on 9.1 YPA with 14 touchdowns and only two picks. But he has not enjoyed playing the Steelers, evidenced by a 2-6 record (SU and ATS) and pedestrian numbers of 218 passing YPG, 6.3 YPA and 58% completions with 11 TD and 7 INT. In four trips to Heinz Field, Dalton has thrown for five scores and four picks. Although WR A.J. Green (35 rec, 531 yds, 3 TD) remains his top target, Dalton has also done a nice job of incorporating young TE Tyler Eifert (28 rec, 342 yds, 6 TD) and WR Marvin Jones (24 rec, 321 yds, 3 TD) to keep the double-teams away from Green. Although second-year RB Jeremy Hill is having a terrible season with 232 rushing yards on 3.1 YPC, he has scored six touchdowns. RB Giovani Bernard has been a big part of many of those touchdown drives with 427 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC and two scores. Cincinnati's defense still needs work, as it allows only 20.3 PPG, but has surrendered 371 total YPG this year, including 409 YPG in the past three games. The run-stop unit gives up nearly five yards per carry (4.9 YPC) leading to 109 rushing YPG. The passing defense has been just as bad, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69% of their throws for 261 YPG on 6.9 YPA. Although the Bengals have nine takeaways in six games, they have exactly one forced turnover in each of the past four contests. They're also facing a Steelers offense that has only six giveaways through seven games.

Three of those Pittsburgh turnovers came in last week's loss, which is something QB Ben Roethlisberger cannot afford to happen against such an explosive Cincinnati offense. His team is currently averaging 22.6 PPG and 348 total YPG on a strong 6.3 yards per play. But the time of possession has been only 28:54 per game, including 28:00 at home. The Steelers have been balanced though with 127 rushing YPG on a stellar 4.7 YPC plus 221 passing YPG on 7.9 YPA and a 67% completion rate. Roethlisberger has an impressive 17-6 record versus the Bengals with solid numbers of 229 passing YPG, 32 TD and 21 INT. The dynamic duo of WRs Antonio Brown (46 rec, 671 yds, 2 TD) and Martavis Bryant (9 rec, 182 yds, 20.2 avg, 3 TD in only 2 games) are both averaging more than 90 receiving YPG and are up against a subpar Cincinnati secondary. RB Le'Veon Bell (511 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 3 TD) continues to handle the rushing workload and he had quite a series versus the Bengals last year with 205 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) plus 12 catches for another 135 yards with 3 total TD in the two victories. Like its Sunday opponent, Pittsburgh gives up too many yards (377 total YPG), but teams are scoring just 18.7 PPG against this club. The run-stop unit has performed much better (100 YPG on 3.9 YPC allowed) than the passing defense (277 YPG on 7.3 YPA and 69% completions). The Steelers have kept the scoring numbers down this season with the help of forcing nine turnovers, including multiple takeaways in three of the past four contests.


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