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No. 21 Temple seeks 8-0 start vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/30/2015  at  12:00:00 PM
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NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (6-1)
at TEMPLE OWLS (7-0)

Lincoln Financial Field - Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Notre Dame -11, Total: 50

No. 21 Temple entertains No. 9 Notre Dame in what might be the most important game in the history of this rising AAC school.

Both teams are rolling, as the 6-1 Fighting Irish have won five straight games ATS while the unbeaten Owls (5-2 ATS) are off to their best start in school history at 7-0. They haven't allowed even 17 points in any of their four October games. These schools have met just once before, a 28-6 Notre Dame home win in 2013, and there are plenty of reasons to expect another sizable victory on Saturday. The Fighting Irish are 9-1 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 under head coach Brian Kelly, and are 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in three straight games since 2013. But the Owls are 34-19 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992, and their Saturday opponent is a dismal 10-26 ATS versus good defenses (4.5 or less yards per play allowed) in this same timeframe. Neither school has many new injuries to worry about, as the Irish got healthy during their bye week and are minus only OL Alex Bars (ankle, out) and the Owls have just two players questionable in DE Sharif Finch (knee) and S Will Hayes (hamstring).

Can Temple keep the final margin to within single-digits on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is starting to heat up with a 58% ATS record (7-5) on Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Notre Dame's offense continues to produce big numbers, averaging 38.3 PPG and 500 total YPG (7.3 yards per play) this season. Exceptional balance of 235 rushing YPG (5.9 YPC) and 264 passing YPG (9.2 YPA) has helped the school rack up 23.6 first downs per game. Sophomore QB DeShone Kizer (1,370 pass yds, 9.0 YPA, 10 TD, 4 INT) has thrown for over 200 yards in all five of his starts and has also gained 158 and 3 TD on the ground in the past four weeks. Kizer continues to heavily target star WR Will Fuller who has surpassed 120 receiving yards four times this season including 131 on just three catches (43.7 avg) in the team's most recent game versus USC two weeks ago. The Irish will have to continue being unpredictable on offense by mixing in a steady diet of handoffs to senior RB C.J. Prosise who has amassed 922 yards on 7.1 YPC and 11 TD. He has rushed for more than 125 yards in five of the past six games and has multiple touchdowns in four of his past five contests. The Irish defense has done its job for the most part this season in allowing 22.6 PPG and 370 total YPG. Although they have surrendered 22+ points in six straight contests, USC was the only team to post 30+ points (31). The run-stop unit has been the biggest weakness, as it allows 174 YPG on a hefty 4.8 YPC, but the pass defense has been serviceable in limiting opposing quarterbacks to 196 YPG (6.6 YPA) on 55% completions. The unit is also making more plays recently with five takeaways in the past two weeks following a stint of 0-to-1 turnovers in the each of the season's first five games. With the Owls committing multiple turnovers in three of the past five contests, Notre Dame should keep trying to make plays on the football.

Temple has done a nice job of controlling the clock this season with a beefy 33:11 average time of possession. Although the school gains only 346 total YPG, it is still scoring 32.3 PPG for the year, including 35.3 PPG in three home games. Junior QB P.J. Walker (1,314 pass yds, 7.0 YPA, 9 TD, 3 INT) has just one 300-yard passing game this season, but he usually makes smart decisions with the football evidenced by a 60% completion rate and only one interception in the past four games combined. Senior WR Robby Anderson has been the go-to receiver with 31 catches for 388 yards and five touchdowns, all of which lead the team by wide margins. Anderson does a nice job of using his 6-foot-3 stature to out-jump opposing defensive backs, and is coming off a huge game last Thursday when he caught eight passes for 126 yards, both season highs. But the main engine to this Owls offense is RB Jahad Thomas who has carried the football 165 times (23.6 carries per game) for 822 yards (5.0 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. The junior Thomas has scored at least once in all seven games and has also caught multiple passes in six straight contests, totaling 204 receiving yards, which puts him second on the club behind only Anderson. But the main reason this Temple team has stayed unbeaten is a stifling defense holding teams to 14.6 PPG and 307 total YPG. These numbers improve to a stingy 12.0 PPG and 141 total YPG at home. Not only can't teams rush the football with any success, gaining a paltry 92 YPG on 3.0 YPC, but the secondary has also held strong. Although opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 215 YPG, they have done so on a meager 5.5 YPA and 52% completion rate. Temple has also done a great job in creating mistakes with at least two takeaways in five games, which gives the Owls 15 forced turnovers this season.


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