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#23 Pittsburgh hosts UNC on Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/28/2015  at  2:49:00 PM
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (6-1)
at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (6-1)

Heinz Field - Pittsburgh, PA
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 54.5

Two surprising ACC teams trying to stay unbeaten in conference play will square off Thursday night when No. 23 Pittsburgh hosts North Carolina.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

The Tar Heels (4-3 ATS) have been rolling with six straight victories including a perfect 3-0 record in ACC play. These three wins have come by a combined 56 points, including last week's 26-13 win over Virginia. The Panthers (4-3 ATS) are also unbeaten in ACC action at 4-0, but have won all of those games by seven points or less. This includes a 23-20 escape as an 8-point underdog at Syracuse last week. These teams have played only twice since Pittsburgh joined the ACC, with North Carolina winning both in close games, 34-27 on the road in 2013 and 40-35 at home last year. The Panthers rushed for 305 yards in Chapel Hill last season, but 220 of those yards and 4 TD came from RB James Conner, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the 2015 opener. The Tar Heels won last year's meeting with a balanced attack of 276 passing yards and 226 rushing yards and also had zero turnovers. There are good reasons to wager on either side Thursday, as UNC is 19-8 ATS versus excellent ball-control teams (avg. possession time of 32+ minutes) since 1992, but is only 4-13 ATS following a SU win streak of 4+ games in this same timeframe. The Tar Heels have some injury concerns on both lines, as DL Aaron Crawford (foot) was lost for the season, and DL Nazair Jones, DL Tyler Powell and OL Tommy Hatton are all listed as questionable with undisclosed injuries. Pittsburgh has four questionable players in WRs Chris Wuestner (abdominal) and Tre Tripton (leg), as well as free safeties Terrish Webb (ankle) and Reggie Mitchell (foot).

Which school will stay undefeated in conference play after Thursday's game? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is starting to heat up with a 58% ATS record (7-5) on Best Bets over the past two weeks.

North Carolina's offense has been consistently strong all season with 38.4 PPG and 474 total YPG (7.4 yards per play). Offensive balance has been key with the Heels throwing for 258 YPG on 9.3 YPA and rushing for 215 YPG on 6.0 YPC. Senior QB Marquise Williams has played pretty well this season with 1,353 passing yards (8.6 YPA) on 67% completions, but has only 9 TD and 7 INT, and has failed to throw a touchdown in three of the past four contests. Four different UNC receivers have gained more than 300 yards, with WR Quinshad Davis leading the way with a modest 328 yards. Williams is also the team's second-leading rusher with 476 yards (7.0 YPC) and 5 TD, and he ran wild on the Panthers last year for 122 yards on 19 carries (6.4 YPC) and three touchdowns to go along with 276 yards and 1 TD through the air. This season, the bulk of the ball-carrying duties belongs to sophomore RB Elijah Hood (646 rush yds, 6.5 YPC, 8 TD) who has back-to-back games of 101 rushing yards with five touchdown runs over the past three contests. The Carolina defense continues to overachieve with only 16.7 PPG and 350 total YPG allowed this season. Despite being on the field for a hefty 35 minutes per game, opponents have thrown for just 134 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 52% completions. The Heels haven't been as efficient in stopping the run though, allowing 213 YPG on 4.6 YPC for the year, including 254 YPG on 4.8 YPC away from home. Carolina has helped itself nicely in the turnover department with 13 takeaways during its six-game win streak, including five last week. However, the Panthers have gone two straight games without a giveaway.

Pittsburgh's offense wasn't supposed to be this good after losing superstar RB James Conner, but the team has quietly produced respectable numbers of 27.1 PPG and 358 total YPG to this point in the season. The Panthers have held the football for an average of 32:50 and have nearly perfect symmetry between run and pass with 186 YPG (7.9 YPA, 68% completions) through the air and 172 YPG (4.2 YPC) on the ground. Freshman RB Qadree Ollison has done a nice job filling the shoes of Conner with 662 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and seven touchdowns, with at least one score in each of the past four games. He's also coming off a strong 103-yard effort (4.5 YPC) at Syracuse. Junior QB Nathan Peterman doesn't have gaudy numbers with 159 passing YPG, but has thrown for 9 TD and 3 INT, including a mistake-free 6 TD/0 INT ratio in the past four contests. Despite standing 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, Peterman has shown better mobility in the past two weeks with 55 yards on 13 carries (4.2 YPC). When Peterman drops back, he usually targets junior WR Tyler Boyd (53 rec, 489 yds, 4 TD) first and foremost. Boyd has at least five catches in all six of his games this season and has also become a valuable weapon carrying the football with 11 rushes for 60 yards (5.5 YPC) over the past two games. The Tar Heels had no answer for Boyd in the 2014 meeting, as Boyd caught five passes for 160 yards (32.0 avg) and a touchdown, accounting for 73% of his team's yards through the air that day. The Panthers' defense continues to get better each week, and has held opponents to 21.6 PPG and 309 total YPG. The unit is strong in all facets, limiting teams to 134 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC, and 175 passing YPG on 6.0 YPA and 54% completions. This defense also has a streak of six straight games of forcing at least one turnover, including eight takeaways over the past four weeks.


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