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#5 TCU hosts West Virginia on Thursday night
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/27/2015  at  7:41:00 AM
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WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (3-3)
at TCU HORNED FROGS (7-0)

Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -14, Total: 75

No. 5 TCU could have another stiff test in its quest to stay unbeaten when the team entertains a desperate West Virginia squad on Thursday night.

The Mountaineers (2-4 ATS) started off the season nicely by crushing their first three opponents 130 to 23, but have now lost three straight games -- all to ranked teams -- by a combined score of 139 to 88. The Horned Frogs are only 3-4 ATS despite an offense that has scored at least 45 points in six straight games, as three of their seven victories this season have been by seven points or less. Speaking of close games, all three of the meetings between these schools in Big 12 play have been decided by a field goal or less, with the road team prevailing each time. TCU won 39-38 in Morgantown in 2012 and also claimed a 31-30 victory there last year. But West Virginia was double-digit underdog when it won 30-27 in the only meeting in Fort Worth two seasons ago. The majority of betting trends for this matchup favor the Horned Frogs, who are 9-1 ATS at home and 7-0 ATS coming off a road win in the past two seasons, and 26-12 ATS off three straight conference wins under Gary Patterson. But those wanting to wager on the Mountaineers can point to the fact that underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points, after failing to cover the spread in three of the previous four games, against an opponent that covered the spread in two of its previous three games, are 224-143 ATS (61%) since 1992. The short week makes it tough for injured players to recover quickly, and West Virginia's secondary could be missing both DBs Ricky Rumph (personal, doubtful) and Terrell Chestnut (shoulder, questionable). For TCU, LB Mike Freeze left the team earlier this week due to a personal matter, and WRs Emanuel Porter (knee) and KaVontae Turpin (undisclosed) are both questionable for this matchup.

Can TCU win handily in this Big 12 showdown on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is starting to heat up with a 58% ATS record (7-5) on Best Bets over the past two weeks.

West Virginia has displayed a powerful offense this season with 36.3 PPG and 486 total YPG. The team has great balance and the ability to both run the football (216 YPG, 4.3 YPC) and gain yards through the air (270 YPG, 8.0 YPA). But the biggest offensive weakness during the current three-game losing skid is turnovers, as WVU has 10 giveaways in these three defeats. Junior QB Skyler Howard has thrown five interceptions in the past three games, but he's still putting up great numbers with 1,566 passing yards (8.3 YPA) on 59% completions, 15 TD and 6 INT. Howard has also shown dual-threat ability with 190 rushing yards and 2 TD, and these totals would be much greater had he not taken 18 sacks already. For the Mountaineers to stay in this game, RB Wendell Smallwood will need to have a big game. The junior has rushed for at least 88 yards in all six contests and was pretty effective with 64 yards on 15 carries (4.3 YPC) versus TCU last year. Defensively, WVU hasn't been terrible (27.0 PPG, 401 total YPG allowed) but the club has been gashed on the road for 53.0 PPG and 560 total YPG in two non-home games. Although the unit has an average time of possession of 28:29, it has still allowed 167 rushing YPG (4.3 YPC) and 233 passing YPG (7.6 YPA) despite a low 51% completion rate. The Mountaineers give up big yards because they like to gamble, but making plays on the football has also helped them produce 16 takeaways this season. Unfortunately for them, the Horned Frogs have committed only seven turnovers in seven games in 2015.

TCU's offense continues to thrive every week, averaging a robust 50.1 PPG and 616 total YPG this season. This includes 58.7 PPG and 650 total YPG in three home contests. A huge part of this success has been Heisman hopeful senior QB Trevone Boykin, who has completed 66% of his throws for 2,539 yards (364 YPG), 25 touchdowns and only five interceptions this year. In the past four games, he has tossed 15 TD and just two picks. Boykin loves to target fellow senior WR Josh Doctson who already has 1,067 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, scoring at least two times with 125+ receiving yards in five straight games. Boykin has also hurt opponents with his legs, churning out 440 yards on the ground (5.7 YPC) and five touchdowns. Boykin was pretty quiet in Morgantown last season when he totaled 215 yards and 2 TD, but he completed only 12-of-30 throws and tossed an interception. TCU's main rusher continues to be senior RB Aaron Green, who has 632 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and eight touchdowns. After gaining only seven yards on 12 carries at Iowa State last week, Green is looking for a bounce-back performance against a WVU team that he managed 63 yards on 11 carries (5.7 YPC) against last year. The Horned Frogs don't have a very reliable defense, allowing opponents to score 26.6 PPG with 397 total YPG. Three opponents have scored 37+ points against them (SMU, Texas Tech and Kansas State) and they are giving up way too many first downs (21.9 per game). TCU defenders are struggling both on the ground (174 YPG, 4.2 YPC) and through the air (224 YPG, 6.6 YPA) despite opponents having a weak 52% completion rate. The Frogs have forced just 10 turnovers in seven contests, and would love to increase that against a turnover-prone Mountaineers squad on Thursday.


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