The 7-0 Buckeyes are just 2-5 ATS this season, but have won their past two games by a combined 49 points, topping Big Ten foes Maryland 49-28 and Penn State 38-10 last week. But both of those wins came in Columbus, and their most recent road game at Indiana on Oct. 3 was a tight 34-27 win versus a 21-point underdog. The 3-3 Scarlet Knights (3-2-1 ATS) erased a 25-point deficit at Indiana last week and prevailed 55-52, but have played much better at home with a 2-1-1 ATS record including a narrow 31-24 loss versus No. 7 Michigan State two weeks ago. In the first Big Ten meeting between these schools last year, Ohio State jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead and coasted to a 56-17 home win to easily cover the 20.5-point spread. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to expect a similar outcome, as the Buckeyes are 48-21 ATS (70%) versus good rushing teams (4.75+ YPC) since 1992, and road teams after allowing 14 points or less facing an opponent that gave up 31+ points in two straight games are 67-29 ATS (70%) over the past five seasons. Bettors siding with the Scarlet Knights to cover can point to OSU's winless 0-6 ATS record after a game goes Under the total in the past two seasons or the team's 1-8 ATS mark under head coach Urban Meyer when the total is set at 63+ points. The injury list is quite long for both teams, as the Buckeyes have two players out -- WR Parris Campbell (knee) and DL Tommy Schutt (wrist) -- and two others questionable in WR Johnnie Dixon (knee) and S Erick Smith (knee). But Rutgers has six players downgraded to doubtful in RB Charles Snorweah (upper body), RB Desmon Peoples (upper body), WR Dontae Owens (lower body), WR John Tsimis (lower body) and LB Austin Rosa. Also, seven others are questionable for Saturday in star WR Leonte Carroo (ankle), WR Janarion Grant (undisclosed) and five defensive backs -- Blessuan Austin (undisclosed), Davon Jacobs (undisclosed), Kiy Hester (lower body), Jarius Adams (upper body) and Anthony Cioffi (upper body).
Can Rutgers keep the score close against top-ranked Ohio State? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are coming off a huge week in Best Bets where they were a collective 63% ATS (19-11). StatFox Gary was 5-1 ATS to improve to 54% ATS (21-18-1) for the season, and StatFox Brian was also 5-1 ATS on Best Bets for the week.
Ohio State's offense has averaged a hefty 37.0 PPG and 456 total YPG this year, but the team is not happy with the play of junior QB Cardale Jones, who has thrown 7 TD and 5 INT this season to go along with 1,242 yards (8.3 YPA) on 62% completions. Last week he completed 9-of-15 throws for 84 yards (5.6 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT before being replaced by sophomore QB J.T. Barrett, who will get the start on Saturday night. Barrett not only completed all four passes for 30 yards and two touchdowns against Penn State, but he also ran for 102 yards on just 11 carries (9.3 YPC) and two more scores, giving him five rushing TD in the past two weeks. Barrett has not been a great passer this season in averaging only 5.7 YPA on his 44 throws, totaling 249 yards with 4 TD and 2 INT. But Barrett was unstoppable against Rutgers last year with 367 total yards (261 passing, 107 rushing) and five touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing). Heisman hopeful RB Ezekiel Elliott (988 rush yds, 6.7 YPC, 11 TD) is riding a streak of 12 straight 100-yard games, but he gained only 69 yards on 12 carries (5.8 YPC) against the Scarlet Knights last season. The Buckeyes' defense has been rather stingy this season in limiting teams to 16.3 PPG and 302 total YPG. The passing defense has been outstanding in allowing only 144 YPG on 5.3 YPC and 47% completions, and the run-stop unit is solid with 159 YPG allowed on 3.7 YPC. Ohio State has also forced 12 turnovers in seven games, but only four of those have come over the past four weeks. That's good news for a Scarlet Knights team that has only one miscue in the past two games combined.
Last week's offensive explosion (55 points, 596 total yards) inflated Rutgers' season numbers to 34.3 PPG on 449 total YPG (6.3 yards per play). This is a well-balanced offense with 199 YPG (4.9 YPC) on the ground and 250 YPG (8.3 YPA) on 69% completions through the air. The Knights average 23.8 first downs per game, which is why the average time of possession is 32:37. Sophomore QB Chris Laviano continues to improve throughout the season with 200+ passing yards in five straight contests and 2+ TD passes in each of the past three games. This includes 386 passing yards and 3 TD in the amazing comeback win in Bloomington last Saturday when his team trailed 52-27 with 18 minutes left in regulation. A huge chunk of those passing yards (157) and all three touchdowns went to star WR Leonte Carroo, who now has 472 receiving yards and 9 TD in only four games this season. Carroo also had a big day in Columbus last year with 100 yards on five receptions, which is why the team desperately needs him to play through his bad ankle this week. Rutgers also needs to run the football to stay in this game, which means a heavy dose of sophomore RBs Robert Martin (437 rush yds, 6.3 YPC, 4 TD) and Josh Hicks (420 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 4 TD). The 205-pound Martin rushed for 124 yards and 3 TD last week, while the 215-pound Hicks has rushed for 322 yards in the three games he has been given double-digit carries. The Rutgers defense allows 29.2 PPG and 447 total YPG, and has been gashed by quality opponents all season, surrendering 37.0 PPG and 529 total YPG in Big Ten play. The major deficiency is the secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes for 319 YPG (8.5 YPA). The run-stop unit allows a respectable 128 YPG on 4.2 YPC, but has allowed 295 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) in the past two weeks. Before the Knights forced three Indiana turnovers last Saturday, they had produced only four takeaways in their first five games of the season combined.
FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
