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#6 Clemson hosts struggling Georgia Tech Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/8/2015  at  4:49:00 PM
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GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (2-3)
at CLEMSON TIGERS (4-0)

Memorial Stadium - Clemson, SC
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Clemson -7, Total: 54.5

No. 6 Clemson tries to remain unbeaten when it hosts Georgia Tech in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

The Yellow Jackets started off the 2015 campaign on fire with wins of 69-6 (Alcorn State) and 65-10 (Tulane), but have dropped three in a row (SU and ATS) since then. The latest defeat was 38-31 at home to 6-point underdog North Carolina last week. The Tigers also started hot with big wins over Wofford (49-10) and Appalachian State (41-10), but have suffered two straight ATS defeats in narrow SU wins at Louisville (20-17) and to Notre Dame (24-22) last week. The home team has dominated this series recently with all five hosts this decade winning by at least two touchdowns. Georgia Tech ran for 251 yards in last year's 28-6 pummeling, but Clemson racked up 551 total yards in a 55-31 victory the last time the schools met in Death Valley. There are plenty of reasons to side with either ACC foe on Saturday, as the Yellow Jackets are 13-2 ATS after forcing less than two turnovers under head coach Paul Johnson, and road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 173-105 ATS (62%) since 1992 in conference games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Tigers are 16-7 ATS under head coach Dabo Swinney when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points, while their Saturday opponent is 3-14 ATS off an ACC upset loss when favored by 6+ points since 1992. Clemson's only new injury is C Ryan Norton (leg, questionable), but Georgia Tech has two questionable players for Saturday -- FB Broderick Snoddy (hand) and WR Micheal Summers (shoulder) -- while RB TaQuon Marshall (undisclosed) and DL Patrick Gamble (head) are both probable for this game.

Can Clemson remain undefeated against a desperate Georgia Tech squad? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Georgia Tech's triple option began the season with 458 rushing YPG on 8.5 YPC in the first two games, but has been held to 215 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC in the past three defeats. Top RB Patrick Skov has just 197 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC during the losing skid, while junior QB Justin Thomas has gained only 141 yards on 2.7 YPC in this same timeframe. Thomas has also been wildly erratic throwing the football in the past three weeks, completing only 26-of-66 passes (39%) for 432 yards (6.5 YPA), 4 TD and 2 INT. But Thomas was nearly perfect in the rout versus Clemson last season by connecting on 8-of-11 passes for 102 yards (9.3 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT while rushing for 46 yards on the ground. The Yellow Jackets defense is what won last year's game though, holding the Tigers to 190 total yards and returning two interceptions for touchdowns from 85 and 62 yards out. This season, Georgia Tech is allowing a subpar 5.0 YPC on the ground, but just 5.8 YPA through the air, which is why opponents have only 16.0 first downs per game and a small 26:10 average time of possession. The Yellow Jackets have also forced multiple turnovers in four out of five games, but the lone exception was the zero takeaways last week versus North Carolina. If they can force the Tigers to make some mistakes on Saturday, this will be a very close ball game.

Clemson has seven giveaways in its four wins, but is still averaging 406 total YPG of offense. The team has managed only 22.0 PPG in the past two victories though, and QB Deshaun Watson (69% completions, 738 pass yds, 7.4 YPA, 9 TD, 4 INT) is under pressure to produce much more. Watson has at least 2 TD passes in all four games this year, but threw for a pathetic 97 yards on 11-of-22 attempts (4.4 YPA) in last week's narrow win over Notre Dame. He was also inefficient at Georgia Tech in 2014 when he gained 21 yards on six throws (3.5 YPA), but he did run for 40 yards on seven carries (5.7 YPA). The sophomore Watson has used his legs to pick up key yardage with 186 rushing yards on 39 attempts (4.8 YPC) and 1 TD, but the better option is to hand the ball off to RB Wayne Gallman. The fellow sophomore has 408 rushing yards on 75 carries (5.4 YPC) and 3 TD with a consistent output of at least 79 yards in each game this season. He was also Clemson's best offensive player in the loss at Georgia Tech last year with 15 rushes for 88 yards (5.9 YPC) plus a team-high-tying three receptions, albeit for only eight yards. Sophomore WR Artavis Scott was held to one catch for seven yards in that defeat, but he has done a great job getting open this season with at least five receptions in all four contests, with a touchdown in three of the four games. The Tigers defense has been suffocating all year in limiting opponents to 14.7 PPG and 305 total YPG. While the ground game has held teams to 115 YPG on a weak 3.1 YPC, the passing defense has been just as impressive with opposing quarterbacks completing only 47% of their throws for 190 YPG and 6.5 YPA. Clemson has been able to keep these numbers down with an eye-popping 10 takeaways in the past three games, including four in last week's win over Notre Dame.


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