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Texas faces #4 TCU on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/2/2015  at  2:29:00 PM
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TEXAS LONGHORNS (1-3)
at TCU HORNED FROGS (4-0)

Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: TCU -14.5, Total: 71

After back-to-back heartbreaking home losses, Texas tries to get back in the win column on Saturday afternoon when it visits No. 4 TCU.

Two weeks ago, the Longhorns nearly erased a 21-point, fourth-quarter deficit versus Cal but fell 45-44 when kicker Nick Rose missed the extra point with 1:11 remaining. Last Saturday, Texas mishandled a punt in the game's final minute that led to Oklahoma State's game-winning field goal with 0:06 left. The Horned Frogs were also involved in a thriller last week, as Aaron Green caught a tipped pass with 23 seconds remaining to escape past Texas Tech 55-52. But when these schools met last Thanksgiving in Austin, the game was anything but close as TCU rolled to a 48-10 victory over Texas. Neither team has been a profitable wager this season with the Longhorns 1-2-1 ATS and the Horned Frogs 1-3 ATS, but both have positive betting trends for Saturday. Texas head coach Charlie Strong is 13-1 ATS on the road when following a loss in his coaching career, and the program is 37-19 ATS on the road versus mistake-prone teams (60+ penalty YPG) since 1992. But TCU is 8-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons, and Gary Patterson is 20-8 ATS after two straight ATS defeats as the school's head coach. The Longhorns have a pretty healthy roster with the only injury concern being OT Kent Perkins (knee), while the Horned Frogs are much more banged up with WRs Ty Slanina (collarbone) and Andre Peties-Wilson (suspension) and FS Kenny Iloka (knee) all out, DL Terrell Lathan (undisclosed) doubtful and WR Kolby Listenbee (undisclosed) questionable.

Can TCU win comfortably over a desperate Texas team on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Texas eclipsed 40 points in the first two games of its homestand, but managed only 27 points and 290 total yards of offense in last week's loss. Freshman QB Jerrod Heard has completed 61% of his passes on a hefty 11.0 yards per attempt and 18.0 yards per completion, but has just 2 TD and 2 INT through the air. Senior WR Daje Johnson leads the team with 13 catches and 196 yards, while freshman WR John Burt is averaging an eye-popping 26.6 yards per catch. Heard has almost twice as many rushing yards (295) as top RB Johnathan Gray (149) this year with both players scoring 3 TD on the ground. Gray had a dreadful performance against TCU last season when he carried the ball 11 times for zero yards, but backup QB Tyrone Swoopes managed 61 yards on 15 carries (4.1 YPC) in that loss, so expect Heard to run several keepers. Swoopes was a valuable rusher last week versus Oklahoma State when he carried the ball three times for 35 yards and a touchdown. The Texas defense played its best game of the season last week but still allowed 30 points and 395 total yards. For the season, the unit is surrendering 35.2 PPG on 483 total YPG. The Longhorns are allowing 166 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC, and are giving up 8.8 YPA despite a low 52% completion rate. Texas has been very opportunistic though with 10 turnovers in the past three games, including two returned for touchdowns last week. But Saturday's opponent has just two giveaways in the past three games and has been scoring points in bunches.

TCU has posted at least 55 points in three straight games and is averaging 637 total YPG for the season. Senior QB Trevone Boykin is in the thick of the Heisman race having already thrown for 1,470 yards (9.6 YPA, 65% completions), 14 TD and 3 INT. Boykin has tossed at least 4 TD in each of the past three victories while eclipsing 450 passing yards in the last two. He also had a big day against the Longhorns last season when he totaled 283 yards and 3 TD. Top WR Josh Doctson has 438 receiving yards and 5 TD in the past two weeks, including an astounding 267 yards on 18 catches and 3 TD versus Texas Tech. The 6-foot-3 senior also caught seven passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in the win at Austin last year. While Boykin and Doctson are nightmares for opposing defenses to contain, the TCU ground game hasn't been easy to stop either, averaging 235 YPG on 5.3 YPC this year. Senior RB Aaron Green not only saved his team's season last week with the late touchdown catch, but he has carried the ball 73 times already for 434 yards (5.9 YPC) and 6 TD -- two each in three straight games. Green was also the leading rusher in last year's win over Texas with 16 carries for 73 yards (4.6 YPC) and a touchdown. After allowing just 24 points and 508 total yards in their first two games, the Horned Frogs defense has been lit up the past two weeks where they have surrendered 89 points and 1,115 total yards. A big part of that has been the lack of turnovers, as TCU has zero takeaways in the past two games after forcing five turnovers in the first two contests.


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