Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers grew up a Northern California kid with dreams of following in the footsteps of greats like Joe Montana and Steve Young, but the 49ers drafted Alex Smith instead of him, and the rest, as they say, is history. Rodgers and the Packers are coming off of yet another dominant home performance in front of the Lambeau Field faithful, pounding Smith and the Chiefs 38-28 last Monday. Now, six days after reminding Smith who should’ve been the top pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, he gets a chance to remind the team that passed on him just how big of a mistake they made. Rodgers threw five touchdown passes against the once-vaunted K.C. defense that entered the game with eight sacks, yet only got to Rodgers one single time on the night. The 5 TD passes by Rodgers were one shy of matching his career high and is equal to the total number of touchdowns scored by the entire 49ers roster this season. Both teams have some significant betting trends in this one, as the Packers are 28-7 ATS following a non-conference game under Mike McCarthy and 12-2 ATS on grass fields in the past two seasons. However, the 49ers are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their previous three games over the past three seasons and slow starting offensive teams (7 or less PPG in first half) after allowing 40+ points in their previous game are 49-19 ATS since 1983. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, the 2014 first-round pick, leads Green Bay in tackles from his safety spot, but could be without running mate, S Morgan Burnett, who is currently questionable with a calf issue. Rookie WR Ty Montgomery has given the team some punch in the return game and should see an increased role with WR Davante Adams likely to this game with a high ankle sprain.
Can Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense make enough plays to keep pace with the dynamic Packers? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. Through Week 3, the experts have a collective 61% ATS record (27-17-1) in NFL Best Bets, led by StatFox Scott's stellar 70% ATS mark (7-3). StatFox Dave and StatFox Gary are close behind with 67% ATS records (8-4) each in NFL Best Bets. Scott is also a sizzling 70% (7-3) in NFL Totals this season.
Rodgers has 15 games in his career with 4+ TD passes, sporting an astronomical ratio of 66 TD and 4 INT in those contests while leading his team to a 14-1 record in those games. Consequently, San Francisco has had just one single game with four touchdown passes since that 2005 draft, a 2012 win over New England in which QB Colin Kaepernick had four of his 14 completions find the end zone. WR Ty Montgomery scored his first NFL touchdown last week and will be fired up to return to the South Bay where he played his college ball at Stanford. Another local product, San Jose’s WR James Jones will also see some of those extra targets as he continues his revival tour with Green Bay. Following a year where he was released by both the Giants and the Raiders, Jones has four TD catches, which are tied with WR Randall Cobb for the team lead and second in the entire NFL. The Green Bay defense has done its part so far this season as well, racking up 11 sacks including taking Smith to the turf seven times last week. The Packers are tied for third in the NFL with those 11 sacks while they’ve allowed only three sacks of Rodgers and a league-low 10 QB hits. RB Eddie Lacy has yet to find his footing in 2015 while battling various nagging injuries, but he and fellow RB James Starks have kept the offense balanced to the tune of the 9th-ranked rushing offense in football. The usual suspects are back to form for the Packers defense, led by LB Clay Matthews and DE Julius Peppers, the front seven has regained its pass-rushing prowess of previous seasons.
Flash back to opening day of the 2013 season, the defending NFC Champion 49ers hosted the Packers to open up the final season at Candlestick Park. Their young quarterback was starting to blossom into a superstar, their coach was on a Hall of Fame trajectory, and their defense was the most feared in the league. San Francisco had just dispatched Green Bay in the divisional round of the 2012 playoffs while totaling a Kaepernick-era best 579 yards of offense en route to Super Bowl XLVII. Kaepernick and the 49ers found a similar result against those same Packers, and the San Francisco signal caller outplayed his counterpart on his way to a career-high 412 passing yards in the 34-28 victory. That was the last time Green Bay played at San Francisco, but it was not the last meaningful meeting between the two as they clashed in a playoff matchup at Lambeau Field, again won by the 49ers 23-20. Recent history is on San Francisco’s side, as the club has taken the past four meetings from Green Bay, but this is a very different 49ers squad. Gone are defensive studs like LB Patrick Willis, DT Justin Smith, and DE Aldon Smith; as well as polarizing, yet wildly successful, head coach Jim Harbaugh. Both of Harbaugh’s coordinators have gone elsewhere as well, OC Greg Roman has turned around the Bills perennial lackluster offense while DC Vic Fangio has taken on the reclamation project that is the Bears defensive unit. RB Frank Gore has moved on to Indianapolis and WR Michael Crabtree has moved across the Bay to play with the Raiders. Nobody is happier to see that than Green Bay though, as in his last two against the Packers, Crabtree torched them to the tune of 17 receptions for 245 yards and a pair of playoff touchdowns. The new-look Niners try to mimic the style of their predecessors, but the talent level is far from what it had been. WR Torrey Smith, who’s in the prime of his career at 26, is on pace for his worst season of his five-year tenure. Only his yards-per-catch average of 18.7 is above his career splits and that’s mostly due to a 75-yard, garbage-time touchdown against Pittsburgh when the 49ers were trailing 36-10. Take away that grab and he has just six catches for 56 yards and no touchdowns through the first three games. RB Carlos Hyde started the year with a bang, trampling the Vikings for 168 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdown runs, but the last two games he’s totaled 94 rushing yards on 28 carries with no scores. Trailing big early didn’t help those numbers, but if Pittsburgh and Arizona got a quick jump on San Francisco, what is the MVP Rodgers going to do? Look for the 49ers coaching staff to reel Kaepernick in a bit after throwing identical pick-sixes to start the game last week. San Francisco still possesses the No. 2 rushing offense in the league, although buoyed by Week 1’s 230-yard performance, and in an effort to keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hands should be pounding Hyde and rookie RB Mike Davis as often as possible. Coming off of an embarrassing 4-turnover, 156-yard performance at Arizona last week, clearly San Francisco needs to get back to basics. Former Jets head coach and current 49ers defensive coordinator Eric Mangini will have to find a way to pressure Rodgers and keep him from getting comfortable to have a chance in this one. In the four straight wins for the Niners in the series, they’ve sacked Rodgers 10 times while pressuring him constantly with multiple rushers coming from anywhere on the field. OLB Ahmad Brooks has to be better for the 49ers to find success. Now one of the elder statesmen on the roster, Brooks currently has no sacks on the season amidst some off-field troubles. He entered the season with 39 sacks and 10 forced fumbles in his previous six seasons with the club. Pro Bowl LB NaVorro Bowman has regained his 2013 form, currently tied for the team lead in tackles, but four of the club's top-six tacklers come from the secondary, which generally means the defense is getting gashed.
FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
