The Rebels are off to a flying start to the 2015 campaign with four double-digit wins, but they suffered their first ATS defeat of the season last week with a narrow 27-16 home victory versus 27-point underdog Vanderbilt. This followed an impressive 43-37 win at 8.5-point favorite Alabama one week earlier. The Gators are also 4-0 SU, but three of their wins have come by seven points or less, leading to a 2-1-1 ATS mark. They won a 28-27 thriller at home versus Tennessee last week to improve to 2-0 in the SEC. With these two schools in different divisions of their conference, their last meeting occurred way back in 2008 as Ole Miss pulled off the major road upset of 22-point favorite Florida, 31-30. That marked the fourth straight meeting decided by six points or less, and the fifth straight ATS win for the Rebels in this series. They also have other positive trends for bettors to side with, such as an 18-5 ATS mark in the first half of the season under Hugh Freeze, including 9-1 ATS in the past two years. But the Gators are 38-26 ATS (59.4%) versus good throwing teams (250+ passing YPG) since 1992. While Ole Miss is dealing with only one new injury with DB Tony Conner out 4-to-6 weeks with a knee injury, Florida has a much longer infirmary list with RB Case Harrison (thumb) out, LBs Jeremi Powell (foot) and Alex Anzalone (shoulder) both doubtful and K Austin Hardin (quad), TE C'yontai Lewis (hand), LB Matt Rolin (back) and DB Kylan Johnson (leg) all questionable.
Can Ole Miss cover the sizable spread versus unbeaten Florida? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.
Ole Miss has been an offensive juggernaut this season with 54.7 PPG and 544 total YPG. QB Chad Kelly is the main reason for that with 1,219 passing yards (10.6 YPA), 10 TD and 3 INT. He has completed 62% of his throws, and five receivers already have 10 catches. Junior WR Laquon Treadwell is the top target with team highs in receptions (22) and receiving yards (332), but senior WR Cody Core is close behind with 320 receiving yards (22.9 average) and 3 TD. Junior WR Quincy Adeboyejo leads the Rebels with five touchdown grabs, but was held without a catch last week. Ole Miss has also cranked out 199 rushing YPG on 5.5 YPC, which is pretty impressive considering its paltry 25:05 offensive time of possession. Seven players already have rushing touchdowns including three from Kelly and two from 296-pound DT Robert Nkemdiche. Senior RB Jaylen Walton (269 rush yds, 6.4 YPC) leads the team in rushing and is coming off a monster game versus Vanderbilt when he rumbled for 133 yards on 21 carries (6.3 YPC) and a touchdown. The talented Ole Miss defense continues to flourish despite being on the field nearly 10 minutes longer than the opposing defense has. The Rebels have limited teams to 19.2 PPG and 358 total YPG (4.3 yards per play) and forced 10 turnovers already. The run-stop unit is holding opponents to 155 YPG on 3.5 YPC, and faces a Florida opponent that has rushed for fewer yards in each subsequent week. Ole Miss has also been solid in pass coverage, allowing 202 passing YPG on just 5.3 YPA.
Florida's offense has been solid this season with 33.5 PPG and 404 total YPG on 5.9 yards per play. The ground game has sputtered in the past two weeks though with only 229 yards on 65 carries (3.5 YPC). Junior RB Kelvin Taylor is the workhorse with 59 carries for 256 yards (4.3 YPC), and is coming off his best game of the season when he rumbled for 102 yards on 19 carries (5.4 YPC) and 2 TD versus Tennessee. If the Gators' run game continues to decline, which is a strong possibility against an excellent Ole Miss front seven, freshman QB Will Grier will need to keep airing out the football. He attempted only 57 passes in his first three games, but threw 42 times last week, completing just 23 passes (55%) for 283 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. This production helped Florida erase a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter, and four different players caught at least five passes in that victory. Freshman WR Antonio Callaway had a breakout game with 112 yards on five catches plus a game-winning, 63-yard TD grab with 1:26 remaining. Callaway now leads the team with 172 yards, while junior WR Demarcus Robinson has 20 receptions, which is eight more than any other teammate. Defensively, Florida has been very tough against the run (107 YPG on 3.1 YPC) and solid against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 55% of their throws for 191 YPG (5.9 YPA) against the Gators secondary this season. That includes 346 passing yards by East Carolina, and over the past two games, that number has been cut to 146 passing YPG on a paltry 47% completion rate (20-of-43) for Florida opponents.
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