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#8 Georgia hosts #13 Alabama on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/3/2015  at  9:16:00 AM
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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (3-1)
at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (4-0)

Sanford Stadium - Athens, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 pm ET
Line: Georgia -2.5, Total: 54.5

No. 13 Alabama finds itself as a rare underdog when it visits No. 8 Georgia on Saturday afternoon.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

The Crimson Tide enter this SEC showdown with three straight ATS defeats including a 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago. They bounced back last Saturday with a 34-0 win versus Louisiana-Monroe, but amassed only 303 total yards and failed to cover the 37-point spread. The Bulldogs improved to 4-0 SU after rolling over a non-conference opponent last week with a 48-6 drubbing of Southern, but fell to 2-2 ATS when they failed to cover the hefty 49-point spread. These schools are meeting for the first time since the 2012 SEC Championship Game when Alabama prevailed 32-28, and the last time they met in the regular season was back in 2008, a 41-30 Tide victory. Bettors backing 'Bama can point to the team's 22-5 ATS road record off an SU win/ATS loss combination since 1992 or Georgia's 2-12 ATS mark at home versus top-level teams (75%+ win pct.) under head coach Mark Richt. But home teams with elite defenses (14 or less PPG allowed) after two straight wins by 28+ points are 38-11 ATS over the past 10 seasons, and the Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS after allowing 225 or less total YPG in their previous two contests under Richt. The Crimson Tide will be without WR Robert Foster (116 rec yds, 2 TD) for the season due to a rotator cuff injury, and may also be missing DL Jonathan Allen (shoulder), who is listed as questionable for this matchup. The Bulldogs lost FB Christian Payne (fibula) indefinitely last week and LB Davin Bellamy (undisclosed) is questionable for Saturday. However, both DB Jabriel Washington (knee) and RB Bo Scarbrough (suspension served) have been upgraded to probable.

Which SEC team will emerge victorious on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Alabama has scored at least 34 points in all four games this season, averaging 35.7 PPG on 460 total YPG. Senior QB Jake Coker has thrown for 786 yards (6.4 YPA) and eight touchdowns this year, but he has completed only 55% of his passes and tossed 4 INT over the past three weeks. None of his receivers have 200 yards this season, but six have already cracked the century mark, led by junior TE O.J. Howard (183 rec yds, 0 TD). Sophomore WR ArDarius Stewart leads the team with 21 receptions, but is averaging only 8.4 yards per catch. Per usual, Alabama has a potent rushing attack with RBs Derrick Henry (422 rush yds, 6.3 YPC, 8 TD) and Kenyan Drake (215 rush yds, 5.8 YPC, 1 TD). The junior Henry has scored a touchdown in all four games, and has been much more effective against his two Power-5 opponents (274 rush yds, 7.6 YPC) than his two smaller conference opponents (148 rush yds, 4.8 YPC). On the other side of the ball, Alabama has been incredibly stingy against the run this year, allowing only 57 YPG on 2.0 YPC. And although the unit has given up 210 passing YPG, it has done so on just 5.3 YPA. Even with the 43 points allowed to Ole Miss two weeks ago, the Tide are holding teams to 17.5 PPG with seven forced turnovers, but only one has come versus the Power-5 opponents. But the Bulldogs are not an easy team to take the ball away from, as they have committed only two turnovers in four games.

Georgia's offense has shown great balance all season with 491 total YPG broken down between 258 rushing YPG and 233 passing YPG. The team has rushed for over 240 yards in all four victories thanks to the legs of RBs Nick Chubb (599 rush yds, 8.4 YPC, 6 TD) and Sony Michel (223 rush yds, 7.0 YPC, 4 TD). Chubb has a current streak of 12 straight 100-yard games, including at least 120 in all four contests in 2015, but he has never faced a run-stop unit as powerful as Alabama's. Michel is the team's second-leading receiver with eight catches for 148 yards and 3 TD. The Bulldogs ground game has remained effective because opponents have to respect junior QB Greyson Lambert who has completed 77% of his passes for 733 yards (10.8 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. He has taken only two sacks all year and has 13 receivers averaging at least 10 yards per catch. The top target is clearly senior WR Malcolm Mitchell (20 rec, 306 yds, 3 TD) who has 13 grabs for 218 yards and 2 TD in the past two contests. Georgia's defense has been tough to penetrate all season, giving up just 13.5 PPG on 273 total YPG and 4.2 yards per play. The run-stop unit has limited opponents to 107 YPG on 3.1 YPC, while the passing defense has allowed 166 YPG and 5.4 YPA. The Bulldogs will look to force some more turnovers than the one total takeaway they have in the past two games, as Alabama has eight giveaways in the past three contests.


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