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Undefeated Miami faces Cincinnati Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/28/2015  at  3:09:00 PM
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MIAMI HURRICANES (3-0)
at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (2-2)

Nippert Stadium - Cincinnati, OH
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -4.5

Well-rested Miami looks to remain unbeaten when it visits Cincinnati on Thursday night.

The Hurricanes last played on Sept. 19 when they beat Nebraska 36-33 in overtime at home, which improved their season record to 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. The Bearcats lost a wild 53-46 game at 8-point favorite Memphis last Thursday, which was their first ATS win (1-3 ATS) but dropped them to 2-2 SU for the season. Turnovers have been a huge part of both records this year, as Miami holds a +8 turnover margin (10 takeaways, 2 giveaways), while Cincinnati is a dreadful minus-10 with 14 turnovers and only four takeaways. The 'Canes have completely dominated this series with 11 straight victories since the Bearcats won the first-ever meeting back in 1947. The average score in the series is Miami 39, Cincinnati 12, and the 'Canes have scored 38+ points in eight straight meetings. Last year's matchup was the highest-scoring game between the two, as the Bearcats dropped 34 points but also committed three turnovers in a 55-34 defeat. The good news for Cincinnati is that Tommy Tuberville is 13-3 ATS as a college head coach after two straight games where his team committed 3+ TO, and his opponent is 4-13 ATS after gaining 475+ total yards in two straight contests since 1992. But Miami also has positive betting trends with an 8-1 ATS record after playing a non-conference game since 2013, and the fact that road teams after two straight games of forcing 3+ TO facing an opponent after two straight games of a negative turnover margin are 24-5 ATS over the past five seasons. The Bearcats will likely be without starting QB Gunner Kiel (head) again, and they also lost DB Adrian Witty (ankle) indefinitely last week. The bye week allowed the Hurricanes to likely get back two players upgraded to probable (WR Braxton Berrios and LB Jeremaine Grace), but WR Stacy Coley (hamstring) is doubtful to play, and LB Marques Gayot (neck) is questionable.

Can Miami stay unbeaten with a difficult road game? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Miami sophomore QB Brad Kaaya has had a solid season so far with 839 passing yards (280 YPG, 8.3 YPA) on a 61% completion rate with 5 TD and 1 INT. He lit up Nebraska for 379 passing yards, 2 TD and 1 INT, and was outstanding in the win over Cincinnati last season when he completed 17-of-24 throws for 286 yards (11.9 YPA), 3 TD (plus 1 rushing TD) and 0 INT. Senior WR Rashawn Scott already has two 100-yard games this season including 151 yards on nine catches versus the Cornhuskers. Miami's ground game has also been potent in 2015 with 184 rushing YPG on a hefty 5.4 YPC. Sophomore RB Joseph Yearby has been a terrific replacement for departed star RB Duke Johnson, who is now in the NFL. The explosive Yearby has rushed for 311 yards on 7.6 YPC and has added 110 receiving yards on six catches (18.3 avg), totaling 4 TD. He ran right past Nebraska's defense last game for 125 yards on 17 carries (7.4 YPC) and a touchdown, and against the Bearcats last year he sprinted for 113 yards on just eight carries (14.1 YPC), which included a 62-yard run. Miami's defensive season numbers look pretty good (17.7 PPG, 310 total YPG), but the team allowed 462 total yards to the Huskers last game, including 309 through the air. Considering its Thursday opponent just threw for more than twice that (620 yards), the Hurricanes will certainly have their work cut out for them this week.

Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel left last Thursday's game in the first quarter when he was hit in the head on a Memphis tackle. Kiel threw for 355 yards and 3 TD against Miami last year, but averaged a mere 6.2 YPA and also tossed three interceptions. If Kiel is unable to return this week, the Bearcats have supreme confidence in backup QB Hayden Moore who torched the Tigers for 557 passing yards (10.5 YPA) and 4 TD, as he completed 31-of-53 throws, but also tossed two interceptions. All three of Cincinnati's senior WR trio gained at least 120 yards through the air last week -- Max Morrison (9 rec, 162 yds, 2 TD), Chris Moore (5 rec, 153 yds, 1 TD) and Shaq Washington (9 rec, 120 yds, 1 TD). All three of these players contributed nicely at Miami last year too, as Morrison caught six passes for 84 yards and 1 TD, Moore went for 74 yards on six grabs and Shaq Washington finished with six receptions for 65 yards and 1 TD. While the Bearcats are averaging 412 passing YPG, they are also running very well with 210 rushing YPG on a whopping 4.9 YPC. And just like the passing game, Cincy does a great job of sharing the wealth on the ground with three players above 200 rushing yards already -- Tion Green (293 yds, 4.8 YPC), Hosey Williams (271 yds, 4.8 YPC) and speedster Mike Boone (220 yds, 9.6 YPC), who hopes to play Thursday after missing last week with an ankle injury. The Bearcats defense was shredded by Memphis for 53 points and 570 total yards, and is facing another talented offense in Miami. Despite being on the field for an average of 26:59 this season, Cincinnati is still allowing 217 passing YPG (7.5 YPA) and 173 rushing YPG (4.6 YPC). The Bearcats have yet to force multiple turnovers in a game in 2015, but do have exactly one takeaway in all four contests so far.


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