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#19 USC visits Arizona State on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/23/2015  at  1:41:00 PM
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USC TROJANS (2-1)
at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (2-1)

Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ
Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: USC -5.5, Total: 63

No. 19 USC hopes to avoid a two-game losing skid when it visits Arizona State on Saturday night.

The Trojans started the season with a pair of lopsided wins versus Arkansas State (55-6) and Idaho (59-9) but came back down to earth in last week's Pac-12 opener when they fell at home by double-digits to 9.5-point underdog Stanford (41-31). Arizona State has begun the 2015 campaign with an 0-3 ATS mark that included an outright loss to Texas A&M (38-17) before a pair of consecutive non-covering home wins versus heavy underdogs Cal Poly (35-21) and New Mexico (34-10). The Sun Devils have been the better wager in this series recently, going 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the past six meetings, including two straight outright wins of 62-41 at home and 38-34 in Los Angeles last year which was won on the final play of the game when Jaelen Strong caught a 46-yard Hail Mary touchdown. Going back to 1992, the Trojans hold a commanding 15-6 SU advantage in this Pac-12 matchup, but are just 11-10 ATS in this span, including 4-6 ATS (6-4 SU) in Tempe. But USC has been a great wager coming off a loss recently, as the school is 8-0 ATS in the past three seasons after a defeat (6-0 ATS after a conference loss) with an average score of 37 to 16 in those eight bounce-back contests. However, Arizona State head coach Todd Graham is 10-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in his coaching career, and college football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 21+ points in their previous three games are 30-8 ATS (79%) over the past 10 seasons when facing an opponent going over the total by 21+ points in its previous contest. The Trojans could be missing top RB Tre Madden who suffered a knee injury last week, while the Sun Devils have a hefty six players with this similar questionable tag for Saturday -- RB De'Chavon Hayes (hamstring), WR Devin Lucien (knee), WR Jalen Harvey (collarbone), TE Dan Vear (undisclosed), LB Alani Latu (leg) and DB Armand Perry (ankle).

Can the Trojans avenge last season's Hail Mary loss on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in CFB Best Bets to start the season, including a perfect 3-0 on his weekly lock.

USC's offense has been extremely efficient this season with 48.3 PPG and 558 total YPG despite just 23:32 in time of possession. The Trojans have not committed a single turnover, as superstar QB Cody Kessler has completed a whopping 70-of-89 passes (79%) for 922 yards (10.4 YPA), 10 TD and 0 INT, giving him a gaudy 202.8 passer efficiency that ranks third in the nation. But the only receiver that has gained even 100 of those yards is WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who ranks third in FBS with 434 receiving yards. The 6-foot-2 sophomore has caught 22 passes at a 19.7 average and has found the end zone four times. Neither of these two players had great performances against ASU last year though, as Kessler threw for a mere 6.1 YPA with zero touchdowns and Smith-Schuster gained only 24 yards on four catches with no scores. The Trojans were able to run the football in that contest though with 220 yards and 3 TD, and the ground game is averaging 208 YPG on a hefty 6.4 YPC and 9 TD this season. But top RB Tre Madden (206 rush yds, 7.4 YPC, 4 TD) might not play after injuring his left knee last Saturday, leaving speedster RBs Ronald Jones II (9.4 YPC, 2 TD) and Justin Davis (9.2 YPC, 2 TD) atop the depth chart. Defensively, the Trojans have been on the field for an average of 36:28, including 39:29 last week against Stanford where they surrendered 474 total yards. Their run-stop unit has held opponents to 3.6 YPC, but the secondary must find a way to limit Arizona State's yards through the air, something it failed miserably in doing last year.

Arizona State QB Mike Bercovici threw all over the Trojans last year with 510 passing yards (11.3 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT. While 202 of those yards were to Jaelen Strong, who is now in the NFL, plenty of playmakers return to this offense that hasn’t fully clicked yet. Bercovici has played pretty well in 2015, completing 62% of his throws for 799 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT, and has tried to replace the production of Strong with three players -- RB Demario Richard (178 rec yds, 22.3 avg, 2 TD) and WRs Devin Lucien (147 rec yds) and D.J. Foster (team-high 16 receptions). Richard caught four passes for 151 yards and 2 TD in last Friday's win over New Mexico while Lucien also tallied four receptions before leaving the game with a leg injury. Foster lines up all over the field, getting 16 receptions and 20 carries so far this season, but the injury to Lucien will probably mean more targets for Foster who caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in last year's win over USC. But Foster ran for only 13 yards on 10 carries in that miraculous victory, and the team will once again lean heavily on the sophomore Richard who has 298 of his team's 472 yards on the ground this season. The Sun Devils defense has given up only 135 passing YPG on a mere 49% completion rate, but has been exposed by opposing rushers for 215 YPG. After producing three takeaways in the season opener, Arizona State has forced only one combined turnover in the past two contests.


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