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Oregon State hosts #21 Stanford Friday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/22/2015  at  4:00:00 PM
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STANFORD CARDINAL (2-1)
at OREGON STATE BEAVERS (2-1)

Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR
Kickoff: Friday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -15.5

No. 21 Stanford tries to build on an impressive victory when it travels to Oregon State on Friday night.

The Cardinal were 9.5-point underdogs last week at USC, but rolled up 474 total yards in an impressive 41-31 win. The Beavers also won comfortably last week, taking down San Jose State by a 35-21 score and easily covering the 6-point spread. Stanford has won five straight matchups in this series (SU and ATS) with the average score being a wide margin of 32 to 12. The Cardinal won a 38-14 laugher at home last year, but the contest was much closer in Corvallis in 2013 when Oregon State fell by a 20-12 score. While David Shaw has led Stanford to a 9-1 ATS record after a game where it has committed no turnovers, the Beavers benefit from the fact that home underdogs of 14.5+ points returning 8+ offensive players facing a conference foe returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-18 ATS (73%) since 1992. The only recent significant injury for either team is Cardinal DL Nate Lohn, who is listed as questionable with an undisclosed ailment.

Can Stanford cover the hefty spread on the road? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in CFB Best Bets to start the season, including a perfect 3-0 on his weekly lock.

Stanford's offense did very little in the season opener at Northwestern (6 points, 240 total yards), but has cranked out 72 points and 965 total yards over two straight victories. QB Kevin Hogan has been outstanding in these two wins, throwing for 620 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT. Although he injured his left foot in the win over USC, Hogan is listed a probable to start on Friday. That's not good news for the Beavers, who allowed Hogan to throw for 277 yards (10.3 YPA) and 2 TD while rushing for 39 more yards (9.8 YPC) and another touchdown in last year's rout. A big part of his success has been electric freshman RB Bryce Love who has a team-high 156 yards on just three catches (52.0 avg) including a 93-yard TD grab two weeks ago versus UCF. Hogan's favorite targets are junior TE Austin Hooper (10 rec, 135 yds) and sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, who has a team-high 12 grabs for 119 yards. McCaffrey also leads the team in rushing at 239 yards, which includes a hefty 115 last week versus USC. McCaffrey opened the scoring in last year's matchup with Oregon State with a 41-yard TD reception. Defensively, Stanford struggled a bit last week in allowing 31 points and 427 total yards, but the Trojans have a much more explosive offensive than the Beavers do.

Oregon State was able to pile up the yards last week, but in its only game versus a Power 5 conference two weeks ago at Michigan, it was held to a pathetic seven points and 138 total yards. Stanford's defense is just as strong as the Wolverines, which puts the pressure on erratic freshman QB Seth Collins who has completed only 54% of his throws this year for a mere 5.2 YPA, 4 TD and 1 INT. His favorite target is sophomore WR Jordan Villamin (10 rec, 141 yds, 2 TD) who caught a team-high five passes for 45 yards in the loss to Stanford last year. The one thing the 6-foot-3 Collins does very well is run the football, and he galloped for 114 yards (7.1 YPC) and 2 TD last week. This mobility will be key against a stout Cardinal run-stop unit holding opponents to 3.7 YPC. But Oregon State has run for 214 YPG on a solid 4.8 YPC thanks in large part to senior RB Storm Barrs-Woods (227 rush yds, 6.5 YPC), who rumbled for 151 yards on 17 carries (8.9 YPC) last week. Barrs-Woods did not play against Stanford last year, but gained only 21 yards on eight carries when he faced this Pac-12 foe two seasons ago. Oregon State's defense has not played particularly well over the past two games, allowing 56 points and 329 rushing yards. But it's not all bad for this unit that has yet to allow more than 180 passing yards in a game and has forced five turnovers in three contests. If the Beavers can come up with a couple of takeaways like Northwestern did to Stanford, this could be a very tight ball game.


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