The Cardinal did not start the 2015 season on a high note, losing 16-6 at Northwestern, but were able to bounce back strong last week with a 31-7 home drubbing of UCF. The Trojans have demolished two soft opponents to open 2015, crushing 27-point underdog Arkansas State 55-6 before taking down 44.5-point favorite Idaho by a 59-9 score. This series between Pac-12 foes was once dominated by USC, but has been quite competitive recently with all five matchups this decade being decided by eight points or less. The Trojans have won two straight meetings by a field goal each time, prevailing 13-10 at Stanford last season when Andre Heidari connected from 53 yards out to break the tie with 2:30 left on the clock. Since 1999, these programs have met eight times in L.A. with the Cardinal holding the surprising 5-3 SU advantage (5-2-1 ATS). Stanford benefits from the betting trend that road underdogs after allowing single-digit points in their previous game facing an opponent allowing three points or less in the first half of its previous game are a hefty 31-8 ATS (80%) in the past five seasons. However, USC is 18-4 ATS (82%) at home coming off 2+ straight ATS wins since 1992. Each team has a pair of significant ailments, as the Cardinal lost DL Harrison Phillips to a season-ending knee injury and LB Noor Davis (leg) is questionable for Saturday. USC has two key players questionable for this matchup in LB Lamar Dawson (ribs) and OL Damien Mama (knee).
Can Stanford cover the double-digit spread in this usually tight series? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary and StatFox Brian are both 56% ATS (5-4) in CFB Best Bets to start the season.
Stanford has not been able to rush the football to the level of its usually high standards, gaining just 108 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Sophomore Christian McCaffrey has carried the football 32 times for only 124 yards (3.9 YPC), which is a far cry from his 7.1 YPC average in 2014. Last week, McCaffrey gained only 2.9 YPC on his 20 totes. Senior RB Remound Wright has just 10 carries for 39 yards this year, but he might get a bigger workload considering his 60 yards on 11 rushes (5.5 YPC) in the loss to USC last year. Despite the Cardinal producing only 10 points against the Trojans in 2014, QB Kevin Hogan had an excellent day with 285 passing yards on 9.5 YPA. He's been solid this season as well with 496 passing yards on 7.8 YPA with 3 TD and 1 INT. McCaffrey has been a great dump-off option with a team-high nine catches, while the speedy RB Bryce Love already has a 93-yard TD reception. Top WR Michael Rector has a gaudy 19.2 average on his five grabs. If these big plays continue to happen, Stanford will be in great shape because of a defense that has looked stellar so far. The unit is allowing 127 rushing YPG on a mere 3.1 YPC and 128 passing YPG on 4.2 YPA and a 42.6% completion rate. However, the Trojans offense is absolutely electric with their elite signal caller at the helm.
USC QB Cody Kessler has led his team to 57.0 PPG and 623 total YPG in this young season. The 6-foot-1 senior has completed 79% of his passes for 650 yards (11.4 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. Three receivers are averaging more than 20 yards per reception, including go-to sophomore WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who already has 14 catches for 281 yards and 3 TD. The next highest totals for USC are six catches (WR Steven Mitchell Jr.) and 66 yards (WR Isaac Whitney), which shows just how valuable Smith-Schuster has been. The only negative for the offense is that Kessler has been sacked five times, and he was frequently pressured at Stanford last season when he threw for only 135 yards on 6.1 YPA. The Trojans' ground game has also been spectacular this year with 469 yards on 6.8 YPC with eight touchdowns. Both RBs Ronald Jones II (169 rush yds, 12.1 YPC, 2 TD) and Tre Madden (142 rush yds, 7.5 YPC, 3 TD) have been finding all kinds of holes to run through. USC's defense is allowing 356 total YPG, which is actually pretty low considering its gaudy 34:57 defensive time of possession. Opponents have gained only 3.4 YPC and 5.3 YPA, and the unit has four takeaways this season, all against Arkansas State. Turnovers are always a big story in football, and in the past 14 meetings of this series with uneven takeaway numbers, the team that has won the turnover battle has a stellar 13-1 SU record.
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