Although neither team has lost SU (3-0) this season, the schools have a combined 0-3 ATS record in those victories. Auburn survived a major scare last week, as the team needed a last-minute touchdown in regulation and an overtime score to prevail over FCS opponent Jacksonville State, a 39-point underdog. LSU also had a tight matchup last Saturday with then-No. 25 Mississippi State, eking out a 21-19 win thanks to a poorly managed final drive by the Bulldogs. While LSU has had the advantage in this series recently with a 6-2 SU mark (but 3-5 ATS) in the past eight meetings, one of those defeats was last October when Auburn jumped out to a 31-7 halftime lead and cruised to a 41-7 victory. But the stars of that game were Nick Marshall (326 total yards, 4 TD) and Cameron Artis-Payne (161 total yards) who are no longer in college. Auburn benefits from the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in the first month of the season after closing out the previous winning campaign with 2+ straight losses, are 35-8 ATS (81%) since 1992. But bettors can also point to LSU's stellar 20-8 ATS mark under Les Miles after a game where the team committed zero turnovers. Auburn's defense could be missing some key components with DB Joshua Holsey (knee) doubtful and LB Justin Garrett (quad) questionable to take the field on Saturday. The good news is that both DL Carl Lawson (hip) and DB Tray Matthews (shoulder) were upgraded to probable. For LSU, both DT Mickey Johnson and OL Chidi Valentine-Okeke are out for the season while DE Isaiah Washington (arm) is listed as questionable for this matchup.
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Auburn's offense needs to pick up some serious steam after gaining just 401 total yards in an overtime game against FCS Jacksonville State last week. These Tigers have turned the ball over three times in both contests, and when they last visited Baton Rouge in 2013 (a 35-21 loss), they also had three giveaways. Junior QB Jeremy Johnson has thrown five picks already, but he was much more accurate last week (66% completions) than in the season opener (52% completions). Because Johnson does not have the running skills like departed QB Nick Marshall, he'll have to make quicker decisions and safer throws to move the chains against an excellent LSU secondary that led the SEC in passing yards allowed last year (164 YPG). Johnson also needs to find another target besides star WR Ricardo Louis who has 130 of his team's 373 receiving yards. Auburn's running game hasn't been great either with 355 yards on 4.5 YPC, but top RB Peyton Barber has proven capable of a large workload, rushing 47 times for 240 yards (5.1 YPC) and 1 TD this season. Defensively, the blue and orange Tigers have already allowed 55 first downs, which has led to the lengthy 33:07 time of possession. They are allowing 5.0 yards per play and need to be more opportunistic after a game where they forced only one turnover.
LSU didn't get to play an opening week tune-up when its scheduled game with McNeese State was postponed due to weather after just five minutes of action. But instead of looking sluggish in the new season opener versus Mississippi State, the Tigers came out strong and scored a pair of Leonard Fournette TD runs in the game's first 14 minutes to take a 14-0 lead. But the offense fizzled after that, scoring just seven points (a third Fournette TD run) in the final three quarters. Fournette finished with 159 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) against MSU, while the rest of the team gained only 178 yards. QB Brandon Harris connected on 9-of-14 passes, but totaled just 71 yards (5.1 YPA) on those conservative throws. Harris was much worse in last year's blowout loss in Auburn, completing only 3-of-14 passes for 58 yards. Fournette wasn't too effective against the blue and orange Tigers with 42 yards on 10 carries. LSU's rushing defense was incredibly stingy in the win versus Mississippi State, allowing only 43 yards on 26 carries, but the pass defense was exposed. Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards (6.4 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT, and LSU failed to generate any takeaways. Saturday will be a great opportunity to make plays on the ball with Auburn having already committed six turnovers.
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