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#20 Boise State faces BYU Saturday night
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/10/2015  at  12:00:00 PM
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BOISE STATE BRONCOS (1-0)
at BYU COUGARS (1-0)

LaVell Edwards Stadium - Provo, UT
Kickoff: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -3, Total: 55

Two teams coming off nail-biting victories will try to start the season with 2-0 records on Saturday night when No. 20 Boise State travels to BYU.

While the Broncos did not look strong in a narrow 16-13 win at home versus 13-point underdog Washington, the Cougars needed a Hail Mary on the final play of the game to knock off 5-point favorite Nebraska by a 33-28 score. The bad news for BYU was that its leader, dual-threat QB Taysom Hill, suffered a season-ending foot injury. Freshman QB Tanner Mangum played admirably in relief of Hill and will get the start on Saturday. These programs are meeting for the fourth straight season with the home team having won the previous three matchups. After BYU rolled to a 37-20 victory in 2013, Boise State returned the favor last year with a 55-30 thumping thanks to 637 total yards of offense. Both programs have favorable betting trends, as road teams after scoring and allowing 17 or less points against an opponent after scoring 24+ points in the first half of last game are 53-21 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons, but BYU is 4-1 ATS in the first two weeks in the past three years. While the Broncos are relatively injury-free, the Cougars lost Hill, DL Travis Tuiloma (knee) and TE Colby Jorgensen (undisclosed) indefinitely last week. Also, DL Isaiah Nacua (disciplinary) is questionable for Saturday.

Can BYU win again without its star quarterback? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

The Boise State offense was potent under Bryan Harsin last season, piling up 39.7 PPG (9th in FBS) and 494 total YPG (14th in nation), but last week the numbers dipped to 16 points and 337 total yards. Sophomore QB Ryan Finley was 16-of-26, but gained just 129 yards (5.0 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. No Boise State receiver gained more than 28 yards in the game, but six players caught multiple passes in the narrow win. The star of the offense was RB Jeremy McNichols who rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD on 24 carries (3.7 YPC). He'll be hard-pressed to duplicate this output against an excellent BYU run-stop unit. The Broncos defense was adequate last year (375 YPG, 48th in nation), and was much better in the season opener, as Washington gained just 29 yards on 22 carries (1.3 YPC) and threw for only 150 yards with an interception.

After gaining a pedestrian 182 rushing YPG last year (47th in nation), the Cougars were even less productive to open this season with 132 yards on 26 carries (5.1 YPC). More than half of those yards and both rushing touchdowns came from now-injured QB Taysom Hill. QB Tanner Mangum, who rushed for 26 yards on five carries (5.2 YPC), and senior RB Adam Hine (4 rush, 37 yds) will have to be much more effective. Mangum completed 7-of-11 passes for 111 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, and he will rely heavily on WR Nick Kurtz, who gained 123 yards on five receptions. The Cougars defense allowed 445 total yards to Nebraska last week, but they did force two turnovers. BYU, which really stuffed the run effectively last year (121.8 rush YPG, 20th in FBS), was able to limit the Cornhuskers to 3.4 YPC (126 rush yds on 37 carries) in the season opener.


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