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#11 Notre Dame hosts Texas Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/3/2015  at  12:03:00 PM
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TEXAS LONGHORNS (0-0)
at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (0-0)

Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Notre Dame -9.5, Total: 52.5

No. 11 Notre Dame hopes to start the season on Saturday night with a convincing victory over a Texas team coming off a losing 2014 campaign.

Not only did the Longhorns finish with a 6-7 SU mark (7-6 ATS) last year, but they lost five of those games by at least three touchdowns. The problem was a sputtering offense that gained only 337 total YPG (110th in nation), and second-year head coach Charlie Strong hopes to jump-start the unit with an up-tempo attack. Sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes will start the game, but highly-touted freshman QB Jarrod Heard is also expected to play on Saturday. The Fighting Irish return 18 starters to a team that started out 6-0, but lost five of the last seven to finish a disappointing 8-5 SU (6-7 ATS). The real problem here was a defense that surrendered 29.2 PPG, including 41.2 PPG in the final five contests. New QB Malik Zaire takes over for Everett Golson and has plenty of weapons to utilize on an offense that averaged 32.8 PPG overall and 35.7 PPG at home. Texas benefits from the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a bowl season that ended with two straight losses are 46-15 ATS (75%) in the first month of the season. However, Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is 31-15 ATS (67%) in his coaching career when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points. There are some injuries of concern for both schools, as the Longhorns will be without starting TE Blake Whiteley (knee) indefinitely, and LB Dalton Santos (undisclosed) is doubtful to suit up on Saturday. The Irish lost three defenders for the season in DB Shaun Crawford (ACL) and DLs Ishaq Williams (eligibility) and Jarron Jones (knee), but both RB C.J. Prosise (hip) and TE Durham Smythe (hamstring) have been upgraded to probable for the season opener.

Can Notre Dame win handily over Texas to begin the season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Texas ranked 106th in the nation in scoring last year at 21.4 PPG, and needs junior dual-threat QB Tyrone Swoopes (2,409 pass yds, 6.3 YPA, 13 TD, 11 INT) to take a big leap forward in his progression. He will miss his two favorite receivers in the departed duo of WRs John Harris and Jaxon Shipley, but senior WR Marcus Johnson (313 rec yds, 1 TD) feels ready for that No. 1 role. WRs Jacorey Warrick (10 rec, 94 yds) and Armanti Foreman (10 rec, 188 yds, 2 TD) will also have much bigger roles this season. The strength of the Longhorns offense is in the backfield with RBs Jonathan Gray (637 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 7 TD) and D'Onta Foreman (4.9 YPC), who both benefit from running behind an offensive line returning all five starters. The Texas defense was very good last season, allowing only 4.68 yards per play (8th in FBS) and 349 total YPG (25th in nation). However, the team returns only five starters and said goodbye to DT Malcom Brown, LB Jordan Hicks and DB Quandre Diggs. A good chunk of talent remains on the Austin campus though, such as 320-pound DT Hassan Ridgeway (6 sacks, 48 tackles) and stud freshman LB Malik Jefferson. CB Duke Thomas (3 INT, 10 PBU, 50 tackles) and S Dylan Haines (4 INT, 73 tackles) lead a strong secondary that ranked 11th in the nation in passing defense last year (184 YPG).

QB Everett Golson is gone, but new Irish offensive coordinator Mike Sanford (Boise State OC) loves the skillset of new starting QB Malik Zaire (21-35, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT). With a 6-foot-2, 222-pound frame, the left-handed signal caller can produce yards in bunches with both his arm and his legs. Zaire tallied 192 total yards and 2 TD in the Music City Bowl win versus LSU, and has plenty of weapons with WRs William Fuller (1,094 rec yds, 15 TD), Chris Brown (548 rec yds, 1 TD) and 6-foot-4 Corey Robinson (539 rec yds, 5 TD), who are all upperclassmen. The ground game is in great shape with RB Tarean Folston (889 rush yds, 5.1 YPC, 6 TD). After surrendering a robust 29.2 PPG last year (82nd in nation) and 404.2 total YPG (71st in FBS), the Irish expect to respond in a big way with 10 defensive starters returning. LB Jaylon Smith (112 tackles, 3.5 sacks) anchors the front seven that needs to produce more than its 2.0 sacks per game from last season (T-74th in nation). The secondary will be stronger with CB KeiVarae Russell (51 tackles, 8 PBU in 2013) back from suspension to join playmaker CB Cole Luke (4 INT, 11 PBU, 48 tackles).


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