StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Sizzling Jays host struggling Yankees Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 8/14/2015  at  10:52:00 AM
  Print This Article    

NEW YORK YANKEES (62-51)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (64-52)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Toronto -225, New York +205, Total: 8.5

The New York Yankees look to retake the AL East lead with a win over David Price and the Toronto Blue Jays this Friday night.

The Yankees were scorching hot for most of this season, building a nice lead in the AL East during the middle parts of the summer, but have seen that lead evaporate and go away in just a few weeks since the All-Star break. They now sit half of a game behind their opponent in this one thanks to losses in five of their last six contests. The biggest blow came in a sweep at the hands of Toronto in which they were outscored 10-1 and they followed that with a series loss in Cleveland; nearly taking another sweep besides Thursday’s 8-6 victory in which they were 4-for-15 with RISP. One bat that has really cooled off is that of 3B Alex Rodriguez (.268) who is 6-for-38 (.158) with no homers and 10 strikeouts in his last 10 outings. On the other side of the diamond, the Blue Jays made plenty of big trade deadline moves and are 14-1 in their last 15; including coming away with a victory in each of their last 11. During the current winning streak they have outscored opponents 59-22 and held them to two or fewer runs eight times. After sweeping New York, they hosted the Athletics and took all three games, capping it off with a 4-2 win on Thursday as starter Mark Buehrle (7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 K) earned his 13th win of the year and 212th in his career. With all of the big offense in this lineup, it has been OF Chris Colabello (.324) hitting in the cleanup spot recently and he is 12-for-29 (.414) with two homers and seven RBIs in his last 10 games. Taking the mound for the Yanks will be RHP Ivan Nova (4-4, 3.52 ERA) as he takes on the tough task of outpitching LHP David Price (11-4, 2.35 ERA) of Toronto. New York is just under .500 (29-30) when away from home in 2015 as the Blue Jays are an impressive 38-21 (.644) when play at Rogers Centre. These clubs have seen each other plenty since the start of the 2013 season and it is the Yankees who hold a 27-20 edge overall while Toronto is 12-9 during that period at home. This year has been a different story, though, and the Blue Jays have taken 7-of-9 meetings; outscoring their opponent 36-17. Trends show that New York is 38-25 (.603) in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games in the past three years as Price’s clubs are a perfect 12-0 this year when going against divisional opponents during his outings. The injury report will have the Yankees missing some depth in OF Mason Williams (Shoulder) and 2B Dustin Ackley (Back) while 3B Edwin Encarnacion (Finger) is questionable for the Jays who also have 2B Devon Travis (Shoulder) out.

Nova made the tough trek back from elbow surgery and will be an important piece for the Yankees if they hope on getting back to the postseason. He is not striking out (6.1 K.9) the number of batters he was before the injury, and has seen his control take a hit (3.1 BB/9), but has been able to keep the ball on the ground 52.9% of the time. Unfortunately, many of the times that the ball isn’t on the ground, it is leaving the park, which has happened 0.98 times per nine innings. Nova’s ERA still remains low thanks to batters hitting a poor .266 BABIP and he is in line for some regression as his FIP (fielder independent pitching) sits at 4.34. He has failed to go longer than 6.2 innings in any of his starts thus far, and when he saw Toronto in his last outing went 5.1 frames with four runs allowed on four hits as he struck out six in a loss. Overall in his career against them he is 4-2 (6-4 team record) with a 4.83 ERA (1.41 WHIP) and he has given up four earned runs in four of his last five times against them. Both 3B Edwin Encarnacion (8-for-24, 1 HR, 6 RBI) and OF Jose Bautista (5-for-15, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 6 BB) have done well in their time against Nova, but the duo of SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Kevin Pillar are a combined 0-for-11 with two strikeouts. The Yankees bullpen has been impressive, going 19-12 with a 3.23 ERA (1.16 WHIP) and is 35-for-44 (80%) in its save opportunities. Andrew Miller (2.03 ERA, 25 saves) has just one blown save on the year and sports a strikeout rate of 13.3 K/9 while allowing just 21 hits in 40 innings of work.

Price was a huge acquisition by the Jays at the deadline as the “ace” returns to the AL East after spending parts of two seasons with the Detroit Tigers. He is in the midst of a career year as his ERA (2.35) is lower than any other season in which he had at least 20 games started. His strikeouts (8.7 K/9) are not at the usual rate, but his control (1.9 BB/9) remains elite as he is leaving 79.9% of runners on base. He has been nearly unhittable since joining his new club, winning each of his two starts while totaling 15 innings and giving up one run on six hits with 18 strikeouts (5 walks). In his career against the Yanks, Price is 11-7 (17-10 team record) with a 4.31 ERA (1.35 WHIP) and shut them out (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 7 K) when they met last week. The trio of C Brian McCann, OF Jacoby Ellsbury and 3B Chase Headley are a collective 31-for-82 (.378) with four homers and 13 RBIs in this matchup. On the other hand, 2B Stephen Drew (0-for-10, 5 K) and OF Chris Young (1-for-11, 3 K) have really struggled against the lefty. The Blue Jays ‘pen has gone 14-20 with a 3.18 ERA (1.07 WHIP) and has been successful in 24-of-41 (59%) games. Roberto Osuna (2.05 ERA, 12 saves) is 12-for-13 (92%) in his save chances and has 56 strikeouts with a mere 35 hits allowed in 52.2 frames.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: