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Cards go for series win over Pirates Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 8/12/2015  at  10:05:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES (65-45)

at ST LOUIS CARDINALS (72-40)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -120, Pittsburgh +110, Total: 6.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates look to stay in the NL Central race as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals in the second of three games on Tuesday night.

The Pirates have continued to find success as they keep their top young talent around and over the past 16 games have gone 11-5. They defeated some solid competition in that time, earning six wins in seven opportunities against the likes of the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers. The team was unable to get things done in the first game of this series, though, and despite knocking out nine hits against the always tough St. Louis pitching, was a mere 2-for-9 with RISP in the 4-3 contest. OF Andrew McCutchen (.297) went hitless in the game, but over his last six is 9-for-20 (.450) with two doubles, two homers, eight RBIs and seven runs. On the other side of the diamond it is business as usual for the Cardinals and they currently own the top record in all of baseball and have kept it up after the All-Star break with a mark of 16-7. They are just coming off of a six-game road trip in which they were able to grab 4-of-6 games, including three shutouts in a row, against both Cincinnati and Milwaukee. They kept things going on Tuesday with a 4-3 victory behind a solid effort (8 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 8 K) from starter Carlos Martinez and at least one hit from each of the top-four batters in the lineup. OF Stephen Piscotty (.355) continued his hot hitting at home with a 3-for-4 night and overall on the year is 15-for-31 (.484) with four doubles and six RBIs in front of the hometown crowd. A couple of young “aces” will take the mound in this one as 24-year-old RHP Gerrit Cole (14-5, 2.39 ERA) of Pittsburgh takes on 24-year-old RHP Michael Wacha (13-4, 2.92 ERA) for the host group. The Pirates have not done too well (26-27) when playing on the road in 2015, and will have a very tough task ahead against this St. Louis group which is an otherworldly 41-16 at home. The series between these two teams has certainly tightened over the past few years and since the start of 2013, the Cardinals hold a slight 29-25 edge over Pittsburgh, but have dominated at Busch Stadium to the tune of a 20-6 record in that time. This year they have already met on 11 occasions with St. Louis having a 6-5 advantage as they are again excelling (4-0) at home. Trends show that the Pirates are 53-36 (.596) against right-handed pitching this year as the Cardinals are 19-2 (.905) in home games after six consecutive contests versus division rivals in the last two seasons. The injury report has plenty of depth missing for Pittsburgh with 3B Josh Harrison (Thumb) being the only significant omission from the lineup as St. Louis continues to play without 1B Matt Adams (Quad), OF Matt Holliday (Quad) and OF Jon Jay (Wrist).

Cole has developed into the No. 1 starter that the team hoped he would become when they drafted him as the first overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft. Despite pitching in 22 or fewer games in his first two years, he was still able to get double-digit wins, and now that he is putting together a full season with no injuries, he has already matched his career-high in starts (22) and has added another 14 victories in 2015. His numbers have remained consistent over the last three seasons in the big leagues and he is currently mowing down a batter per inning with great control (2.0 BB/9) and minimal homers (0.50 HR/9). His groundball percentage (50.8%) continues to rise as batters are hitting a mere .236 against him. Since his All-Star Game appearance, Cole has continued to pitch well, going 26 innings over four outings with 10 runs allowed (9 ER) on 23 hits and has a K/BB ratio of 27:4. He’s always done well against the Cardinals, going 3-3 (4-3 team record) with a 3.05 ERA (1.06 WHIP) and earned a win in his one start (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 K) earlier this year. Infielders 3B Matt Carpenter (4-for-13, 2 HR, 4 RBIs) and SS Jhonny Peralta (4-for-14, 2 doubles) haven’t had too many issues off of the youngster, but, C Yadier Molina may have a rough night as he is 1-for-12 in the matchup. Pittsburgh has compiled quite an impressive bullpen and they have gone 20-13 with a 2.75 ERA (1.24 WHIP) and a mark of 38-for-49 (78%) in save chances. Mark Melancon (1.56 ERA, 35 saves) has blown just one save on the year and has allowed just 42 hits in 52 frames despite striking out just 6.4 batters per nine innings as he has left 86.5% of runners on base and forced the opposition to hit it on the ground 61.7% of the time.

Wacha burst onto the scene in 2013 and figures to be a fixture in this rotation for years to come as he has been able to improve over his 19 starts last year with a sub-3.00 ERA over 21 outings in 2015. He does not blow anyone away via the strikeout (7.6 K/9), but will keep the ball around the plate (2.2 B/9) and has benefitted from the opposition hitting a meager .264 BABIP. Wacha is able to limit the amount of balls leaving the park (0.68 HR/9) with batters hitting it on the ground a career-high 46.9% of the time against him as they are swinging at 35.1% of the balls he throws outside of the strike zone. He comes into this matchup on the heels of consecutive shutout starts, tallying 14 total innings in that time with eight hits allowed and 13 strikeouts (3 walks) against the Rockies and Reds. The righty has also been huge against the Pittsburgh crew in his career, going 3-0 (4-1 team record) with a 1.69 ERA (0.88 WHIP) and saw his team win in both his attempts this year in which he totaled 12.2 innings with three runs (2 ER) allowed on 11 hits and just three strikeouts (2 walks). Despite Wacha’s solid play against them, OF Andrew McCutchen (5-for-12, 1 double) has still done well in the matchup, but the likes of 3B Pedro Alvarez and 2B Neil Walker have combined to go 2-for-19 (.105) with five strikeouts. The Cardinals have put together what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball and it has gone 20-14 with a 2.26 ERA (1.23 WHIP) and saved 46-of-58 (79%) games. Trevor Rosenthal (1.54 ERA, 34 saves) is once again mowing down double-digit batters per nine (10.3 K/9) as he is leaving 87.5% of runners on base and has given up a single homer in 52.2 innings of work (0.17 HR/9).


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