StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Cubs, Mets clash Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 6/30/2015  at  12:00:00 PM
  Print This Article    

CHICAGO CUBS (39-35)

at NEW YORK METS (40-37)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -115, New York +105, Total: 7

The New York Mets look to extend their winning streak to five games when they host the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field on Tuesday night.

The Cubs have had a tremendous comeback season as their rebuild is coming to fruition with some of the top young stars joining the team this year and leading the club to a solid record through this point of the campaign. The inexperience is catching up to them, though, as they have lost each of their last five games against both the Dodgers and Cardinals. It was a very rough go of things when they traveled to St. Louis for three games and were swept while being outscored 15-4. In Sunday’s primetime matchup, they failed to even get one win in the set, losing 4-1 behind a 0-for-10 mark with RISP and saw 2B Addison Russell (.243) continue to struggle as he is 3-for-25 (.120) with 11 strikeouts in his past seven performances. The Mets are moving in the opposite direction and have won four contests in a row despite scoring 3.3 runs per game during the stretch as they’ve allowed opponents to plate a mere four players. On the year, the offense sits fourth-worst in the league with 276 runs scored, but have combated that with a team ERA of 3.45 (5th in league). They capped off a sweep of the Reds at home over the weekend with a 7-2 victory as starter Steven Matz earned the win (7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 6 K) and was a perfect 3-for-3 with four RBIs at the dish in his Major League debut. OF Curtis Granderson (.259) also continued his recent offensive prowess and brings an eight-game hitting streak into this contest in which he is 14-for-31 (.452) with five homers, seven RBIs and seven walks. Toeing the rubber for Chicago will be RHP Kyle Hendricks (2-4, 4.46 ERA) as he takes on LHP Jonathon Niese (3-7, 4.12 ERA) of the host New York group. With a win, the Cubs would push their road record to .500 as they are currently 19-20 and will be taking on a Mets group which is 29-11 at home. This series has been dominated by Chicago in recent years as they’ve amassed a 12-5 record overall since the start of 2013 and are 4-3 when playing on the road in that time. They already met in the Windy City earlier this year for four games and the Cubbies earned a sweep, outscoring New York 18-10 in the process as three of the wins came by just a run. Trends show that the Mets are a meager 8-25 (.242) as an underdog this year while being 28-11 (.718) with a total of 7.5 or less on the year. No significant players are missing from Chicago’s lineup as New York continues to play without 3B David Wright (Hamstring) and C Travis d’Arnaud (Arm), but will see the return of 2B Daniel Murphy (Quad).

Hendricks looks to be on the right track as he has improved his strikeout rate this year to a solid 7.2 K/9 while maintaining tremendous control (1.7 BB/9). He’s also been able to keep the ball on the ground with 50% of balls in play being on the ground, but he still has not kept them from leaving the park with 1.03 HR/9 allowed. His numbers should be expected to improve with an xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) mark of 3.59. He’s failed to get further than five innings in each of his past four outings and is coming off a loss to the Dodgers in which he went five innings, giving up four runs on four hits with two longs balls given up. In his one career start against the Mets he went seven strong innings of three-hit-one-run ball with three strikeouts (2 walks). In that game 1B Lucas Duda hit a solo homer off of him but the trio of OF Juan Lagares, 2B Daniel Murphy and SS Wilmer Flores combined to go 0-for-8. The Cubs relievers have gone 18-13 with a 3.06 ERA (1.24 WHIP) and are 17-for-27 (63%) in save chances. Hector Rondon (2.27 ERA, 12 saves) has not allowed an earned run since May 22nd (12.2 IP) but has just three saves in June.

Niese is an important part of this New York rotation despite not having the flash of some of his counterparts as he is a lefty who has posted a sub-3.75 ERA in each of the past three seasons. In 2015, Niese has not done as well with his highest ERA since 2011 as he is striking out a career-low 6.3 batters per nine innings and is on the losing end of batters hitting .322 BABIP against him. He is able to keep the ball on the ground well with a mark of 54.8% groundballs, but has given up 10 homers in his 83 frames (1.08 HR/9). The Mets have won in just 4-of-14 starts with Niese on the mound despite the fact that he has a quality start in each of his four outings in June with a 3.46 ERA. He’s had plenty of experience against the Cubs in his career, going 3-5 (4-5 team record) with a 5.23 ERA (1.61 WHIP) and took a loss against them earlier this year with a poor effort (6.1 IP, 6 R, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 K). C David Ross (6-for-20, 1 HR, 8 RBIs) and OF Dexter Fowler (4-for-14, 1 HR, 1 RBI) have been solid against the lefty as 1B Anthony Rizzo (2-for-13), C Miguel Montero (0-for-6) and 2B Addison Russell (0-for-3) have struggled. The New York bullpen has gone 9-7 with a 2.84 ERA (1.19 WHIP) and has successfully saved 24-of-31 (77%) games. Jeurys Familia (1.23 ERA, 21 saves) has allowed just 22 hits with a 38:11 K/BB ratio in his 36.2 innings on the mound.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: